Well it’s time for my next installment in the continuing Doom and Gloom column.

Earlier I wrote on the subject of over taxing our natural resources and it ended up in a discussion of motorbikes. Maybe this one will hit a little closer to home.

There is a huge financial crises looming and all of the politicians have chosen not to speak of it.

It all started believe it or not in the 70s when inflation was devastating the West. After seeing the results of this devastation the Federal Reserve decided to take steps to forestall any future run ups.

When Allen Greenspan was appointed as the chairman; he used his genius to guide the American economy for the next 25 years; and barring one exception with great success.

During the 90s we saw technology enabled speculation on the stock exchanges, run up the price to value ratios to “Irrational Exuberance”. This should have been a warning, but where greed is concerned, humans alas are hard to teach.

So when the inflation indicators seemed to point to flat inflation the Fed kept interest rates low. This decrease in interest rates and the huge availability of cash did more to stimulate the economy than the highly touted tax cut (but that's another story).

Having lost nearly all of our collective retirement plans to the 2000 stock market crash; we naturally decided to irrationally over invest, and consequently run up, the residential real-estate market. The conditions could not have been more favorable. After the massive wealth creation in the 90s and inflation being at an all time low, a person, or an institution, would be stupid to ignore the possibilities of becoming wealthy; prospecting on real-estate futures.

The wheels were set in motion. Some areas experienced 25% increases in home pricing in one year. People flocked to buy their new dream home, and they could, because the eager lending institutions, backed by the venerable FHA, were discovering new ways to make unaffordable houses suddenly available.

Well folks, the parties over, and this reporter has been telling you for over 2 years, that a major correction was coming. But you see, the correction is only the tip of the iceberg.

All these creative loans, the ones that allowed home owners to take advantage of the rapidly increasing home prices, are starting to mature. Now a couple that bought a condo in Northern Virginia using variable rate, or an interest only loan is facing financial ruin, as they watch new condos in their neighborhood selling for a hundred thousand less than the ones they bought last year and their mortgage going up to $3500 a month from $1500. They can’t pay and they can’t sell. The only thing left foreclosure.

This is multiplied by millions, and what is left?

An unprecedented collapse of the financial institutes. Normally this wouldn’t be so bad, the FHA would step in and bail them out. If not for one small factor.

The fools mission in Iraq. The very same mission that has us in a quagmire, is also running up so much dept that the government will be powerless to support the crises.

I’ll pause now for comments from my esteemed colleagues.

I was reading something about this just the other day. It made me glad that we are in a home we can afford, with your standard 30-year fixed interest rate mortgage. None of that fancy (and risky) financing for me...

I'm the same as Cindy. I'm glad I'm on a fixed rate 25-year mortgage. I'm just naturally cautious, so hopefully my cautiousness (??) will help me out. I'm also glad that it's so darn cheap to own a house here. A house selling for $100,000 less in my neighborhood would be nearly free!

So when the inflation indicators seemed to point to flat inflation the Fed kept interest rates low. This decrease in interest rates and the huge availability of cash did more to stimulate the economy than the highly touted tax cut (but that's another story).
Oh, but tax cuts add to the availability of cash. But I digress.

I think what we might see is about the same thing that happened in Houston during the 80's and the depressed oil years. back then it was 12-14% interest rates, and people losing jobs, but the effect is the same. A massive foreclosure effort as people stop paying on their houses. Of course someone like me, even with a depressed salary at the time, could then afford a house, and sold 14 years later for a nice sum, and down payment on a nicer house. But people were willing to go into bankruptcy, and let their house foreclose, then turn around and buy another one at a smaller interest rate. Only after that fiasco did interest rates fall, and people started taking advantage of the refinancing options rather than bailing on their mortage.

Well it’s time for my next installment in the continuing Doom and Gloom column.

Why not just move to a more civillised country?:confused:

Why not just move to a more civillised country?:confused:




Oh you can believe that if the US economy tanks, you’ll feel the effects.

And we are civilized; you’re just not capable of seeing it.

The US economy is many times more resilient than the British.

You are so right. There will be a "correction" and it is just the tip of the iceberg. When the oil starts to run out in the not too distant future we will find ourselves in the dark ages again in more way than one. If only people could learn from history. We have also emptied the seas of fish. So things are looking pretty glum for our grandchildren. What you have said about the economy applies worldwide, as in 1929.

Oh, but tax cuts add to the availability of cash. But I digress.

.
Actually the unprecedented savings rate of the Chinese has provided the majority of the global cash supply.

I think what we might see is about the same thing that happened in Houston during the 80's and the depressed oil years. back then it was 12-14% interest rates, and people losing jobs, but the effect is the same. A massive foreclosure effort as people stop paying on their houses. Of course someone like me, even with a depressed salary at the time, could then afford a house, and sold 14 years later for a nice sum, and down payment on a nicer house. But people were willing to go into bankruptcy, and let their house foreclose, then turn around and buy another one at a smaller interest rate. Only after that fiasco did interest rates fall, and people started taking advantage of the refinancing options rather than bailing on their mortage.


The only difference is that it will not be limited to the relatively smaller Texas market. It will most likely be national.

The Japanese economy went through similar crises in the late 80s and it has taken them nearly 20 years to recover. And they have the advantage of a relatively smaller military budget and a trade surplus.

You are so right. There will be a "correction" and it is just the tip of the iceberg. When the oil starts to run out in the not too distant future we will find ourselves in the dark ages again in more way than one. If only people could learn from history. We have also emptied the seas of fish. So things are looking pretty glum for our grandchildren. What you have said about the economy applies worldwide, as in 1929.

I wrote a similar doom and gloom column earlier titled “Easter Island” where I tried to talk about the diminishing global fish supply.

When the oil starts to run out in the not too distant future we will find ourselves in the dark ages again in more way than one.
That's OK, I do archery & fencing :p

That's OK, I do archery & fencing :p
But can you ride a horse?

When the oil starts to run out in the not too distant future we will find ourselves in the dark ages again in more way than one. If only people could learn from history. We have also emptied the seas of fish. So things are looking pretty glum for our grandchildren. What you have said about the economy applies worldwide, as in 1929.
When the Americans (who after all lead the world:rolleyes: ) and Chinese take global warming seriously and admit there is a problem, then we may get somewhere.
But whilst Bush is collecting millions in backhanders for not imposing emission levels on US industrial giants then me collecting my plastic for recycling is a waste of bloody time.

Col

I'm not convinced by the recycling argument anyway. I wonder if more energy is consumed by it than producing the products in the first place:confused:

Do we need to explain what recycling is for those countries where conservation and emissions are unknowns?

Col

Do we need to explain what recycling is for those countries where conservation and emissions are unknowns?

Col
I'm not sure they're unknown, they're certainly ignored

I told friends of mine somthing similar when they bought houses 100 miles from where they work (the low interest made it just possible for them to buy).

What happens in five years when interest rates are higher and you have to renew?
Have you factored a big hike in gas prices into your budget.

Well, its five years later. Interest rates are rising and gas is 90 cents a litre. Are you going to sell? Good luck finding a buyer.

But can you ride a horse?
I have a couple of times... so probably yes, but not well

I'm not convinced by the recycling argument anyway. I wonder if more energy is consumed by it than producing the products in the first place:confused:
I think it uses the same or less energy?
Plus it means less oil needs to be used up in the making of more plastic.

I think it uses the same or less energy?
Plus it means less oil needs to be used up in the making of more plastic.

Aluminum requires 1/10 of the energy and cost to recycle.

Aluminum requires 1/10 of the energy and cost to recycle.
And once again Europe leads the way in recycling, America as usual falls well behind the rest

America Recycles Day is an excellent tool for raising awareness, but it’s critical that we recycle every day of the year,” said Kate Krebs, Executive Director of the National Recycling Coalition. “If we recycled every used aluminum can in the U.S., we would save an amount of energy equivalent to 30 million barrels of oil per year. That’s enough to run 82 million U.S. households for 24 hours, cook 39 billion microwave dinners, or vacuum one billion homes for a year.”

we don't have "aloominum" here - we have the real thing. . . . . . aluminium;)

Col

And once again Europe leads the way in recycling, America as usual falls well behind the rest

It depends on which city; some of the American cities are very advanced in recycling. This is a local issue for us, not a national one.

So when you listen to your commy, pinko, ultra left, America hating BBC (well maybe they’re not all those things but to hear you guys talk, they sure seem like it) you probably don’t hear much about our local governments.

It depends on which city; some of the American cities are very advanced in recycling. This is a local issue for us, not a national one.

So when you listen to your commy, pinko, ultra left, America hating BBC (well maybe they’re not all those things but to hear you guys talk, they sure seem like it) you probably don’t hear much about our local governments.
Funny how you see the saving of the planet as a commy issue:rolleyes: and dismiss it as a local issue

Funny how you see the saving of the planet as a commy issue:rolleyes: and dismiss it as a local issue

Not at all I, do not see conservation as anything like a liberal or left issue. As a mater of fact it is one of the major complaints I have about the republicans for the last 15 years they have made it into a party issue to destroy the Demos.

The commy comment was directed at your seemingly inability to get any American facts straight. So in keeping with your lead, I decided to take its position to extremes.

In Prince William county, here in Virginia (and for most of the Mid Atlantic population) we take recycling very seriously and in fact it is part of our local laws. You can’t really expect places like west Texas and Montana to be as committed to it considering they have millions of square miles of land to create land fills.

And as you indicated earlier, not all recycling is of provable benefit. I chose Aluminum because it actually does. It’s the same with iron products, but the entire global economy is geared to recycle steel and aluminum.

It’s the plastics to which you are referring, and as I said many local communities in America do a good job at that.

It's not enough to act on a local basis, this needs national direction, however as we've seen on so many other issues, you refuse to act on a national level. Except when you want to go to war, that is

It's not enough to act on a local basis, this needs national direction, however as we've seen on so many other issues, you refuse to act on a national level. Except when you want to go to war, that is

That’s because in our country we have strong local government. Why don’t you abandon your parliament in deference to a single all encompassing Federal European one?

The BBC doesn't hate America. But there are many programmes on TV that make fun of America, Americans (about being obese usually) and ridicule its policies etc.
One such programme is "Have I Got News For You" - very funny satire programme.

Col

It's not enough to act on a local basis, this needs national direction, however as we've seen on so many other issues, you refuse to act on a national level. Except when you want to go to war, that is


I do agree however that one of the failings of our current political structure has been the neglect of the federal government to enforce our nation’s laws.

That’s because in our country we have strong local government. Why don’t you abandon your parliament in deference to a single all encompassing Federal European one?
We do have a European parliament. But to abandon ours??? The British wouldn't put up with being told what to do by the French:eek: Anyway, we have a monarchy, much to the annoyance of the French:D

Col

The BBC doesn't hate America. But there are many programmes on TV that make fun of America, Americans (about being obese usually) and ridicule its policies etc.
One such programme is "Have I Got News For You" - very funny satire programme.

Col


I know Col, some of our best news coverage comes from the BBC. And as is my want I’ll take another pause to plug my favorite news organization.
NPR and PRI.

PRI does a lot of joint ventures with the BBC, some of the most informed and balanced coverage available.

Seems to be a lot of venom in some of these comments,
Part of the problem with the US is its size a country of this size will always have problems dealing with the enviroment, some States will bemore advanced than others in their approach, pretty much the same as some Euro Countries are ahead of the UK, Holland is further ahead then the UK, but it is a smaller country and as such easier to administer any implication

However this does not let us or the US off the hook, we should be looking at reducing our footprint and increasing our awareness or recycling

what may work in the UK , may not in the USA - as an example
the UK has the ability to have wave power being an island , this is not an option for some of the states (no coastline), so a a stroke of the pen they do not have this as an option, Solar energy in the Southern states will probably work better than in Scotland/Wales ,
you need to pick the right course for the assets/resourses you have.

In part the States does get a bad press and this is in part down to onesided presentation of the news (it happens both sides of the pond).
however after seeing some comments from the leaders - this is not a good representation of America (not that Blair is a good one for us).

Anyway, we have a monarchy, much to the annoyance of the French:DThey can blame their ancestors for that, chopping all the royalty's heads off...
Come to think of it, didn't Cromwell do something similar in England? The difference being, he then found an heir to put back on the throne.

They can blame their ancestors for that, chopping all the royalty's heads off...
Come to think of it, didn't Cromwell do something similar in England? The difference being, he then found an heir to put back on the throne.
I thought Cromwell was dead when the monarchy was restored:confused:

I thought Cromwell was dead when the monarchy was restored:confused:
Not sure... if he wasn't around to see it, he at least put the wheels in motion

Not sure... if he wasn't around to see it, he at least put the wheels in motion
I'm curious as to how you arrive at that conclusion

I'm curious as to how you arrive at that conclusion
my (possibly faulty?) memory of a documentary I watched?

edit: Looks like I misremembered...
He was succeeded as Lord Protector by his son Richard. Although Richard was not entirely without ability, he had no power base in either Parliament or the Army, and was forced to resign in the spring of 1659, bringing the Protectorate to an end. A year later Parliament restored Charles II as king.
I thought Charles II came immediately after Cromwell.

And once again Europe leads the way in recycling, America as usual falls well behind the rest
So what ever happend about this (from 2003)

The Government is failing to significantly improve the UK's appalling recycling record, new figures reveal today [1]. The 2001/2002 Municipal Waste Management Survey coincides with the publication of a report from a committee of MPs [2] on the future of waste management which describes the Government as "too timid" and says that "despite warm words from Defra ministers, the Department does not seem to have a real sense of where it wants to go".

New Government statistics show that household recycling rose by around 1 per cent - from 11.2 per cent to 12.4 per cent - leaving the UK languishing near the bottom of Europe's recycling league table [3]. At the current rate of progress environment minister Michael Meacher will be celebrating his hundredth birthday by the time the UK recycles half its waste [4].

Friends of the Earth is calling on the Government to take urgent action to dramatically improve the UK's performance by supporting a private members Bill, introduced by Joan Ruddock MP and currently going through Parliament, which, if passed, would lead to comprehensive doorstep recycling across the country

Old news and in any case I said Europe, that's where we are by the way, in Europe

Europe, that's where we are by the way, in Europe

Only when it serves your purpose.

You know, I finally figured you out, you’re jealous of American politicians because you’re just at swarmy as they are; but they get all the money and the girls.

You know, I finally figured you out, you’re jealous of American politicians because you’re just at swarmy as they are; but they get all the money and the girls.

Choke, ROFL, chortle, snort :D

Only when it serves your purpose.

You know, I finally figured you out, you’re jealous of American politicians because you’re just at swarmy as they are; but they get all the money and the girls.
I'll never be jealous of any American :rolleyes:

I'll never be jealous of any American :rolleyes:

Is that the best you can do?

I think some disinterested party should start keeping score.

You’re becoming such a wimp. And to think, I used to consider you a capable advisory.

I guess I’ll just have to back off, because there is no honor in beating up the meek.