We also have to remember, Pat, that once we captured Okinawa and several other islands in the Ryukyu chain, we had air bases from which to fire-bomb Japan. Which we did. Hiroshima and Nagasaki were tragic, but they had less than the expected effect because those two cities were something like the 81st and 82nd Japanese cities to be bombed into ashes. We just used regular incendiaries on the other cities, which went up like matchsticks because their homes WERE thin wood and heavy paper. Eminently flammable. To them, "burned to ashes" was the same either way. They didn't catch on to the other perils until much later after the surrender.
Some people believe that the only reason Japan surrendered was that they had seen what happened to Germany when Russia had a chance to divide up the spoils of war. Russia declared war on Japan but never got troops into that theater of operation. Japan knew that if Russia were involved, their country would be split into pieces, perhaps never to be whole again. They surrendered to the USA in hopes that they could keep their country together and could keep Russia's mitts off of them.
They knew they would lose a protracted war right after the Battle of the Coral Sea, the Battle of Midway, and then the Battle of the Philippine Sea (a.k.a. "The Marianas Turkey Shoot.") The fall of Okinawa convinced them, but they were ready to apply the code of the bushido and die for their country. It was not the threat of death, but the thread of division of families, of lands, of resources - that is what finally pushed them over the edge.