North Korea - Fact or Propaganda (1 Viewer)

scott-atkinson

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Given the current events with Nuclear Tests in NK and the stand off and chest puffing of the Orange one across the pond and the disregard from Kim Jung Un..

Should we be interfering at all... and should we be worried....

Does it matter if NK has nukes, Kim Jung Un if he was as mad and unstable as the western press make out could have easily nuked another country the moment he had the capability to.

Should we believe that the regime in NK is really as oppressive as is reported, should we believe that Kim Jung really is a mad Dictator..

Or is he, simply wanting to maintain his regime, given the events in Iraq and Libya, so is defending himself from the West...

What are your thoughts?
 

Frothingslosh

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A mix of both?

NK really is as repressive as it sounds - I looked into that some years ago, making sure to use non-Western sources, and they all agree to that. Even Chinese publications mention it.

Kim isn't so much unstable as he is tied up with maintaining 'face' and propping up his regime. I'm sure he holds to his family's dream of reuniting the Korean peninsula under his leadership, and NK obviously has no issue with kidnapping and killing innocent people, but he and his advisors aren't stupid. They simply aren't willing to accept the US telling them what to do, and NK has for years seen the acquisition of nuclear weapons as the best way to tell America to piss off.

Despite its history of randomly torpedoing ships or lobbing occasional shells into residential areas (which it probably sees as testing America's resolve), I don't see the North actually attacking or invading the South without extreme provocation, such as an obviously imminent invasion or American air strikes. Really, the only thing keeping America from launching air strikes is the fact North Korean artillery batteries are ready to level Seoul at a moment's notice, and if NK actually ends that 'hostage situation' in any way, it frees America to act. (Also, NK knows full well that America's reaction to the invasion of an ally would be full-scale war, and I doubt Kim REALLY thinks he can win that fight on his own.)

I'm more concerned that Der Orangenführer has painted himself into a corner, and will feel that his only ways out are to attack North Korea or to back down, and he will *NEVER* under any circumstances whatsoever do the latter. (Also, I've seen some second-hand reports supposedly from White House leaks suggesting that a war with NK has been planned since Mueller was named special prosecutor as a way of avoiding or terminating the investigation. Obviously, those need to be taken with a giant-size grain of salt.)
 

scott-atkinson

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If NK really is as repressive as you say, surely by now there would have been some kind of coup!

I doubt that everybody in the armed forces or who owns a gun in NK is living in the lap of luxury under a Kim Jung umbrella, so why hasn't it happened yet?

Surely all the sanctions against NK must be crippling the populace so why haven't they rebelled yet...

Where is the North Korea Spring that we saw in the Middle East...
 

Frothingslosh

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Because the populace is from a culture that has, for thousands of years, stressed obedience to authority as an actual religious virtue? That for the past 70 years, they've been taught that the Kim dynasty is the only thing standing between them and utter annihilation by rabid Americans who desperately want them dead? Because a huge fraction of the population is basically peasant farmers, who have rarely been the ones to rebel, and virtually never successfully?

People who have fled NK for rural China have been completely gobsmacked by the incredible affluence of back-country Chinese farmers. Let's not get into their utter shock at discovering that in other nations, you get paid by your employer, rather than being required by law to work and having to pay your employer for the privilege.

The people in the Middle East had MUCH more freedom and access to information than the people in NK do. Seriously, that last question was much like asking why the citizens of the USSR didn't just up and overthrow the Soviets when Stalin went full-atrocity-and-oppression on them.
 

scott-atkinson

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But surely with South Korea on their doorstep and the freedoms they have some of that must be visible if through illicit means in the North...

I heard reports that people can pick up wifi signals from the South and from China so the possibility of a different way of life must be getting into Korea.

After all Kim Jung cannot prevent radio waves, and Wifi from getting across the borders and into the country..
 

Frothingslosh

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He can, however, prevent them from getting radios and wifi adapters. And it's not like there's any travel between the Koreas.

Also, never underestimate the effectiveness of propaganda.

Here in the US, there are conservatives who have literally been convinced by Fox News that liberals here truly, actually want America destroyed. (Remember BR?) That's due to propaganda in an actual free society with full freedom of speech.

Then imagine what can be done where all other viewpoints are totally suppressed.
 

Frothingslosh

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The main thing to keep in mind, and the primary reason that there will never be a popular revolt against the Kim dynasty, is that the population of North Korea doesn't see the Kims as brutal dictators ruthlessly suppressing the populace for their own gain; they see the Kims as their champions against and defenders from a West that wants the North Korean populace utterly exterminated.
 

Vassago

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People do flee NK. Refugees have told their stories in SK and China. They may not be able to rebel, but they are trying to get away as they are capable. Obviously, means to do so is very hard to come by. It wouldn't be so easy to band together to overthrow the government.

It's a sticky situation, to be sure. The missile flying over Japanese territory was a very stupid move. Sanctions will continue, but it doesn't yet seem like this will be effective. The only thing that would stop a war at this point is NK coming to the table to talk about disarming, and we all know that's not very likely.

NK knows that if they attack anyone, nobody would defend their complete annihilation by the US. China and Russia would not stop us from defending our allies. If we attack first, they may be more inclined to interfere in some way. The problem is, how do you prevent them from attacking first without attacking them? Would NK be willing to take the chance of attacking first? We all know the Kim family hasn't exactly been the most stable mentally.
 

Frothingslosh

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It's certainly possible that Kim thinks that China will defend him anyway if he launches a preemptive strike, but I think it's more likely he'll just continue making outrageous claims and provocation after provocation without actually crossing that line. Note that the claims that they would annihilate Guam turned into carefully announced targeting locations NEAR Guam which then turned into a complete lack of a missile launch.

Basically he's a cornered rat with REALLY big teeth. He won't attack the US or its allies unless he feels he has no other choice, but at the same time he's not about to do anything that can be construed as backing down.

This whole thing is kind of like all the US/USSR brinksmanship from the Cold War, but without all the sportsmanship and lines clearly flagged with 'DO NOT CROSS'. ;)
 

AccessBlaster

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So how did we get here? Was it the last 6 months or has it been smoldering a little longer? Lets use round numbers like 8 years, 16? 40? Or do we just boil everything in the world down to last 6 months. That way we can sleep better at night knowing it wasn't my guy who started WIII
 

scott-atkinson

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Where does NK feature in the New World Order, is it part of the plan or a buzzing fly that no matter how hard you try you cant swat it...
 

scott-atkinson

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Perhaps the Nukes are bargaining chips for NK, like saying OK we'll stop development if you release all the sanctions against us...
 

Frothingslosh

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1) That would require the New World Order to be something other than the feverish imagining of deluded minds. It has, after all, been 'coming for you any day now' for 70+ years.

2) I really don't think NK will ever agree to stop development. From everything I've seen, they see that as the only way to ensure that the West never moves against them. Besides, they have a long history of violating agreements.
 

AccessBlaster

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They want to use the nukes to blackmail the G20. Their goal is reunification of the Korean peninsula.
 

kevlray

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They want to use the nukes to blackmail the G20. Their goal is reunification of the Korean peninsula.
with Communist control.

From what I have seen for a number of years, NK is barely able to feed it's people. I am not sure what NK can export to help it's economy.

Living on the western end of the continental US, We are a bit concerned that NK might eventually send a missile our way. Will hit it's intended target? Who knows, but any nuke even close to us will really cause serious issues.
 

Frothingslosh

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I am not sure what NK can export to help it's economy.

My understanding is that NK exports lots of fossil fuels to China for cash, then uses the cash to purchase processed fuels, extra food and goods, and lots and lots of high-tech items.

A Chinese embargo would hurt the Chinese economy but destroy the NK one - that's why Der Orangenführer is pushing China so hard. The loss of the Chinese trade could well end the regime eventually.

Of course, that would likely end with NK attacking SK, as the regime would have nothing left to lose at that point.
 

Vassago

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They most certainly are not using them as bargaining chips. They already had an agreement to not pursue nuclear capabilities in exchange for trade and violated it by developing the tech. The sanctions were a result, not a cause.
 

scott-atkinson

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Would the Americans really sever all trade with China, they must be one of their biggest Import partners if not the biggest...
 

Frothingslosh

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I highly doubt even Der Orangenführer is that stupid. Especially since he...I mean his company without his input :rolleyes:... is busily attempting to expand into China, as is his son-in-law's company.
 

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