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Cotswold

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Not everything has a firm and distinct cause.
I take the view that everything does have a firm and distinct cause.
At a point in time we may not be able to prove it but no doubt will be able to in the future. I have no truck with anything being the hand of God, or God's will. Iā€™ll give a for-instance in support my opinion.

On the NW coast of England early in the last century a town was flooded. There is no record of this flooding being so bad before or later. For this to happen it required the following events to coincide.

1. An early morning spring tide (always the highest)

2. The direction of a very high wind from a particular and specific direction and after several days of high winds which increased sea swell. Resulting in the tide level rising several feet above normal. Possibly 6 to 8 feet above normal in the early morning.

The combination of these events inundated the town. That situation would occur every time that 1 & 2 happened. The probability of that happening is so remote it may never happen again. The town has been flooded two or three times since but not from the same direction or by the same exact events. Huge defences have been built to prevent the later floods but they will not prevent a flood the same as the one that occurred in the early 20thcentury.

In summary, given the same identical weather sequence and coincidentally a high night spring tide the town is bound to flood. If we could control the tides as well as the wind direction and force, we could recreate the flood whenever we wanted to. So it had a firm and distinct cause.
 

The_Doc_Man

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I take the view that everything does have a firm and distinct cause.

See "radioactive decay" for an example of something that, at the atomic level, does NOT have a firm and distinct cause. See also "spontaneous pair production" in physics for another example. Two prime examples of the phenomenon known as "shit happens."
 

Cotswold

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See "radioactive decay" for an example of something that, at the atomic level, does NOT have a firm and distinct cause. See also "spontaneous pair production" in physics for another example. Two prime examples of the phenomenon known as "shit happens."
I see!!
Now you're just trying to confuse me. I've now read through that stuff. I have to say I felt the same after reading A Brief History of Time by Steve Hawkins. The feeling that the time I had used up reading it didn't provide anything that was totally beneficial to me at the end. Or to put it simply, a little confused.

But I read that ; A particle can decay into two components according to its decay probability........Which to me means it will decay but up to now we cannot define just when or if. Which could also mean that in time as our understanding and maths on the subject advances we (or 'they' more likely) may provide predictability rather than probability. Which then means cause and effect is known does it not?

So we will have to agree to differ. For me though, the jury is still out on the subject. However, are some things I'm good at but quantum theory isn't one of them. So I will concur to your superior knowledge for the time being(y)
 

The_Doc_Man

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Which to me means it will decay but up to now we cannot define just when or if.

With radioactive decay, we can predict that out of some number of molecules of a particular isotope, 50% will decay by the "half-life" time. Of the remaining molecules, 50% of the remainder (i.e. 25% of the original total) will decay by the 2nd span of the half-life.) At no time can you predict which molecules will decay or when. It is a quantum-mechanical thing, so you cannot predict it in specific, only in aggregate.

Radioactive decay is something like a compound interest problem, similar to car depreciation where your vehicle loses a percentage of its value between 15% and 20% per year depending on various factors.

At the aggregate level, things are MORE LIKELY to have a firm cause, but the finer you subdivide the world, the less accurate will be your predictions based on your "strict causality" models. That is because EVERYTHING we see is in fact a probability cloud. Your body is an aggregate of molecules which, at the lowest level, are merely places where electrons probably like to be. If that concept doesn't rock your boat, nothing will.
 

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