Re: When will teh world end?
When Will the World End?
The Earth has excellent chances to continue its existence as a planet for a very long time to come. The human species is highly intelligent and adaptable, and it seems likely that at least some people will continue living on the earth for hundreds if not thousands of years.
But if the "End of the World" can be thought of as the end of the world we know - the end of civilization, the end of modern cities where millions of people live in close proximity, the end of surplus food and water, global transportation, high art and fashion, advanced science, (the list goes on and on), then I think the time frame is far shorter.
The society we know is in deep trouble.
All the surface ice on Greenland melted a couple of weeks ago, to the utter astonishment of scientists.
There are methane plumes in the Antarctic unlike anything seen before. The methane is shooting straight up into the atmosphere, and methane is a greenhouse gas, ten times worse than CO2. Disastrous weather is becoming commonplace, and heat records are shattered every year, if not almost every day. The food chain is fragile and some of the links are on the verge of breaking. There's the mysterious appearance of honeybee colony collapse, the worldwide decline of amphibians, decline of menhaden (bait fish that feed the bigger fish), decline of rain forest, decline of arctic ice, decline of coastline. Human populations are growing, and resources are shrinking. Ocean currents are changing, and "100 year storms" seem to happen every year or so. Almost every measure of our health as a society, and our planet's health as our environment, is alarming.
If I can use the example of a chemical reaction, it continues until at least one of the necessary components is exhausted. That component is the limiting reagent. The reaction cannot continue indefinitely - it can only go on as long as it is supplied with the compounds and conditions required for the reaction to occur. Civilization’s limiting reagent is cheap energy, and cheap energy is getting scarcer. When cheap energy is gone, we're gone. Don't tell me about solar and wind. Fossil fuels have always done the heavy lifting, and I don't see any way for that to change. Solar and wind energy can heat your home and even provide juice for your appliances, but don't ever expect them to power cars, ships, planes, trains, and heavy industrial machinery. Cold fusion, anti-matter reactors, and other far flung, sci-fi scenarios are fantasies. Oil is king. There were < 1 billion people on the earth until the industrial revolution, which was fueled by abundant, cheap energy. There are > 7 billion now. If and when industrialization ends due to the lack of cheap energy, we can expect population levels to return to pre-industrial levels. What do you think will happen to about 6 billion of us? I use the term "cheap energy" with care. At the start of the industrial revolution, oil (which up until then had been an agricultural nuisance), was lying about in large amounts all over the place. Well all that oil is gone. Now, you have to go miles off shore and thousands of feet deep to get it. If it takes more energy to obtain the oil than it yields, you have a net loss and there's no point in getting it. The amount of energy in the universe is a fixed constant. It's only the cheap energy that we need and can use.
The economic outlook is no better - the global economy is teetering and if it goes there might be no way back. If oil is civilization's fuel, the economy is its engine. In a failing economy, people have to work harder and harder for less and less. In a failed economy, there is no way for a person or a government to function or provide - other than growing his/her own food or taking it from someone else. The economy is everything. It's not just about the inflation rate or the borrowing rate or the unemployment rate. Economic gain of some kind is the underlying motive for pretty much all human activities.
Things seem to be getting worse all the time and the only solution our leaders have, is to paint a sunny face on it and just keep kicking the can down the road. Well, the end of the road may be in sight. I'm thinking in terms of a few decades. Obviously I don't know society is going to collapse. I hope I'm wrong. Despite all our ills, we're an interesting species and I'm pretty proud of what's been accomplished, despite my forebodings. But I'm worried. I'm worried about anybody younger than 60. Fortunately for me I'm 61. Just made it. Of course, my timing could be offffffdfjosalnfsdfs...........................
. 
