Will DJT be re-elected? (1 Viewer)

Do you think President Trump will be re-elected?


  • Total voters
    8
  • Poll closed .

pbaldy

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My gut feeling is also no. He's the lesser of evils in my view, same as 4 years ago.
 

Jon

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No, not now. The betting odds, which I follow closely, think its a categoric no. 65:35
 

Isaac

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My thoughts

First, I always feel guilty, in an academic sense, from being interested in a poll answered by only 4 people (maybe 8 will answer it eventually!), this makes me feel like I'm just like CNN, polling 'their viewers' about who won a debate. (Take this as a joke--I know this is just a forum and just for fun). I feel like I am betraying my old Political Science professor and my subsequent predictive modeling professor. LOL.

Second, the best way I can sum up my feelings as to responding to this thread is the observation that I think for many human beings, it's quite difficult to separate prediction from hope. If you think about it. Isn't it? We often say "I hope", which clearly describes a pure wish, and we say "I think/believe" [this will happen], which is supposed to clearly describe a prediction. But I've found it's quite the mental exercise in willpower to say the latter with zero influence from the former. That would be a VERY interesting study! How many people who wish for the same thing they predict, are correct, percentage wise, compared to people who only predict and have essentially nothing vested in the result (if you could find them).

Third, about the relative meaningfulness of betting odds. I have a feeling they are a bit like polls IN THIS sense--The knowledge that something is progressing in a certain direction causes a person with that knowledge to be more likely to go in that direction too. Like if there was a wildfire in your area and at noon, you learned that 50% had decided to evacuate. At 3 pm, you found out 75% had decided that. The impact of knowing "everyone else is starting to abandon their previous position, I wonder if I should too" is a powerful one. But perhaps even more so in betting, in the scenarios where it's not blind and you can see what everyone else is betting. When I use the FoxSuper6 app to make predictions and try to win money, there is one rule I follow whenever it's a subject I know little about, such as professional sports: Bet the same as everyone else. (I wonder how common that strategy is, or is it just me?) Interestingly, perhaps: I rarely win.
The betting odds on November 1st, 2016 were somewhere between 3-to-1 and 2-to-1, against Trump. If that tells you anything.

I've decided to stop laboring to properly discern hope from prediction in myself right now, and just say - I think Trump will win. : )
If he doesn't, traditional values and originalist Constitutional thought will have 6 spots on the Supreme Court. I can live with that.

When you see things like liberals describing Mike Pence's [incredible politeness, class, demeanor and professionalism] as "white male supremacy" against poor K. Harris...........And you see them talking about a 25th amendment.........And you see them trying desperately to portray Trump as "very sick", a man who clearly got through C.V. about as fast and as trouble-free as a person possibly can..........Do those desperate acts look like the way people who think they're 10 to 12 points up, do? Ask yourself that question ...
 

Pat Hartman

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I agree with Isaac. The Democrats seem to be in a panic Although, this business about the 25th amendment is more likely in preparation for a Biden win and immediate replacement by Harris. Think about this if you are considering voting for Biden. Harris couldn't get even 2% of the Democrat primary vote and she is on the cusp of becoming the president???? Then consider the latest plan by the "Squad" for how they will make Biden cave to their radical agenda. Of course if they remove Biden, they won't have a problem since Harris is already on their team.
 

Jon

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I think the 25th amendment thing is just about slinging mud at the president. Add in a salacious dossier, impeachment, accusations of this and that, tax returns, Covid handling and so on. It is an onslaught of gigantic proportions.

@Isaac I wanted to know what the odds were back then. My understanding is that they are supposed to be factoring in the high enthusiasm for Trump this time. You would think they would and should, since the betting companies are not about politics but about making money based on accurate predictions. In any case, we must remember that if the odds are 35% for Trump, that means he still has a chance of getting in.
 

AccessBlaster

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If Trump gets another supreme court justice and declassifies the Hillary and Obama spy gate documents, along with all the other accomplishments it's the equivalent of two terms IMHOP.
 

Jon

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What are the chances of them shutting down the Durham Report if Sleepy Joe gets elected? I know they are supposed to be separate branches of government, but that certainly wasn't the case with how Trump was targeted.
 

Steve R.

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What are the chances of them shutting down the Durham Report if Sleepy Joe gets elected? I know they are supposed to be separate branches of government, but that certainly wasn't the case with how Trump was targeted.
Should the Democrats win, all Republican lead initiatives to get to the bottom of the Russia hoax will be (100%) shutdown by the Democrats. Of course there might be a minor caveat that Republicans can still limp along, but they would have to do it without help from the Executive Branch and/or court system that could even potentially obstruct them.

One would hope that the Republicans can get the report released by January 19, 2021, even if it is "incomplete".
 
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Isaac

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I was telling my wife this last night, told her I wanted to write Trump a letter with my suggestion! HA, of course, it would go nowhere.
What I think he should do after he wins 2020:
Continue on as normal for 2 years.
Then, with two full years still left in the term - Resign, and make Mike Pence president. My thought is, at that point Mike Pence--with his calm, professional demeanor which leaves little room for criticism and his near-flawless execution of PR moments--Takes over and has TWO full years to just keep things strong, prosperous and solid. He basically continues whatever Trump was doing to make the economy strong. After 2 years are over, he is practically a shoe-in candidate in 2024. (Sure, he might still run in 2024 anyway, but we have no idea what will happen if Joe is elected...Maybe Joe and Harris will become popular for whatever reasons). At that point he assumes the traditional position of strong, almost unbeatable incumbent.

He wins easily in 2024, and potentially serves 2 terms. That's 10 years of Pence, 6 years of Trump, for a grand total reign of 16 years. Better yet, for anyone who likes conservatives but wished it was someone other than Trump - you get your wish. More than half of that reign will be Trump results, without Trump. Everyone lives happily ever after.

Is anybody with me ??
 

Isaac

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What are the chances of them shutting down the Durham Report if Sleepy Joe gets elected? I know they are supposed to be separate branches of government, but that certainly wasn't the case with how Trump was targeted.

Should the Democrats win, all Republican lead initiatives to get to the bottom of the Russia hoax will be (100%) shutdown by the Democrats. Of course there might be a minor caveat that Republicans can still limp along, but they would have to do it without help from the Executive Branch and/or court system that could even potentially obstruct them.

One would hope that the Republicans can get the report released by January 19, 2021, even if it is "incomplete".

Enter the extreme importance of District Attorneys, State Attorney Generals, and Federal Judges. A lot of this stuff is already out, and it's possible they can run with it as-is to some degree.
Think about the various cases attacking the Trumps (including Trump) which are winding their way through various courts, despite Trump's best efforts. Maybe the same could take place vs. Obama-era officials, even under a Biden administration.

Fortunately Trump has appointed a lot of federal judgeships.
Unfortunately, most DA's and state AG's are elected, and it seems like NY and DC are the type of circuits these things end up in ...
 

AccessBlaster

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The 25th amendment argument is the left telegraphing they are worried.
 

Pat Hartman

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I just read the 25th amendment and am completely mystified. What the hell is "or of such other body as Congress may by law provide" all about? It looks like Nancy is interpreting it as Congress forms a "non-partisan" committee and now they can remove the President without bothering with impeachment? It's an all around win for the Dems. They can get rid of Trump should he win and they can get rid of Biden if he wins Continuing the thought, if Trump wins and the Dems keep the house and take the Senate, they can use the 25th to get rid of Trump which makes Pence the President. The Congress then has to approve his nominee for VP which they won't approve unless he nominates a Progressive. Or if they can also get rid of him using the 25th while there is no VP, that makes the Speaker of the House the President. That's a pretty nightmarish turn of events.
 
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The_Doc_Man

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A recipe for revolt. And legal action that, if started, WILL make it to the Supremes.
 

AccessBlaster

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Nancy said earlier today that this "isn't about president Trump", it's about the future basically. I think Pat's earlier assessment might be accurate regarding installing Kamala as the new POTUS. I doubt they have enough time to pull off such shenanigans.
 

Steve R.

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Nancy said earlier today that this "isn't about president Trump", it's about the future basically. I think Pat's earlier assessment might be accurate regarding installing Kamala as the new POTUS. I doubt they have enough time to pull off such shenanigans.
My quick response. I tend to believe that Biden "sailed" to become the Democratic presidential candidate with minimal disruption as he has already agreed to step-down as the President, should he win, in favor of Harris after an undefined suitable period of time has passed. In the meantime, Biden will simply serve as a figurehead.
 

Pat Hartman

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make it to the Supremes
But is Diana Ross a liberal or a conservative:unsure:
In the meantime, Biden will simply serve as a figurehead.
We find ourselves with a real Manchurian candidate. The Dems got Bernie to step aside because they were pretty sure he couldn't beat Trump and Biden, if they could show him as a moderate had at least a chance. The real candidate is Harris and the Dems who vote for Biden don't even realize it.
 

Pat Hartman

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I'm watching CSPAN which is showing the Supreme Court hearings. Why? Because I'm a glutton for punishment. At least the Democrats know enough to not be nasty to Barrett. So, instead, they're taking their time to spread lies about Trump. Not a single Dem has asked a question that I've seen. I'm not paying 100% attention so something might have slipped by me.
 

pbaldy

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You are a glutton for punishment! They don't know what to do when the "accuse the nominee of sexual misdeeds" playbook is taken off the table. :p
 

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