Crossroads,

[conception_native_0123]

FY 2023 federal income was $4.4 trillion vs $6.6 trillion expenditure

just think about that. A TRILLION dollars. makes you shake your head, doesn't it? wow! makes me wonder how it keeps going when it's that high.

 

[Cronk]

What does one TRILLION dollars look like?

What does that look like? These various numbers are tossed around like so many doggie treats, using Google Sketchup to get a sense of what exactly a trillion dollars looks like.

Starting with a $100 dollar bill. Currently the largest U.S. denomination in general circulation. Most everyone has seen them, slighty fewer have owned them. Guaranteed to make friends wherever they go.

A packet of one hundred $100 bills is less than 1/2" thick and contains $10,000. Fits in your pocket easily and is more than enough for week or two of shamefully decadent fun.​

​

Believe it or not, this next little pile is $1 million dollars (100 packets of $10,000). You could stuff that into a grocery bag and walk around with it.

​

While a measly $1 million looked a little unimpressive, $100 million is a little more respectable. It fits neatly on a standard pallet...

And $1 BILLION dollars... now we're really getting somewhere...

​

Next we'll look at ONE TRILLION dollars. This is that number we've been hearing about so much. What is a trillion dollars? Well, it's a million million. It's a thousand billion. It's a one followed by 12 zeros.



You ready for this?



It's pretty surprising.



Go ahead...



Scroll down...



Ladies and gentlemen... I give you $1 trillion dollars...

(And notice the res shirted guy is in the bottom left corner and those pallets are double stacked.)

So the next time you hear someone toss around the phrase "trillion dollars"... that's what they're talking about.

 

[Thales750]

Oil production is only one form of energy. Cancelled projects did not mean USA became a net importer of energy. In fact net energy exports are forecast to increase in 2024 and 2025.

The big disruption will be the USA imploding from its debt. Federal debt is approaching $35 trillion whereas in FY 2023 federal income was $4.4 trillion vs $6.6 trillion expenditure. The interest paid on debt is $660 billion, fast approaching defence expenditure. Tick, tick, tick.......

From a societal point of view, what do you think will happen.

 

[The_Doc_Man]

From a societal point of view, what do you think will happen.

Don't know. Let's watch China, which is approaching a collapse point when their demographics finally implode. Their one-family, one-child policy that was in force in the last half of the 20th century means that they will not have enough workers who CAN pay taxes supporting their equivalent of social security. Last year, the Chinese population DECREASED as deaths were greater than births.

Or look at what happened in Greece a few years ago when their pensions became unsustainable. Massive cuts led to many unhappy Greek citizens.

The problem is simple. People learned that they could vote to increase their own government benefits. And for too many people, the thought has been "If we can, why shouldn't we?" Because the common voter might not remember lessons on the economy. Or their school might not have had a course in economy because it was squeezed out by some woke program.

 

[Thales750]

Don't know. Let's watch China, which is approaching a collapse point when their demographics finally implode. Their one-family, one-child policy that was in force in the last half of the 20th century means that they will not have enough workers who CAN pay taxes supporting their equivalent of social security. Last year, the Chinese population DECREASED as deaths were greater than births.

Or look at what happened in Greece a few years ago when their pensions became unsustainable. Massive cuts led to many unhappy Greek citizens.

The problem is simple. People learned that they could vote to increase their own government benefits. And for too many people, the thought has been "If we can, why shouldn't we?" Because the common voter might not remember lessons on the economy. Or their school might not have had a course in economy because it was squeezed out by some woke program.

Or, I guess now in your state, religious doctrine.

 

[Thales750]

Don't know. Let's watch China, which is approaching a collapse point when their demographics finally implode. Their one-family, one-child policy that was in force in the last half of the 20th century means that they will not have enough workers who CAN pay taxes supporting their equivalent of social security. Last year, the Chinese population DECREASED as deaths were greater than births.

Or look at what happened in Greece a few years ago when their pensions became unsustainable. Massive cuts led to many unhappy Greek citizens.

The problem is simple. People learned that they could vote to increase their own government benefits. And for too many people, the thought has been "If we can, why shouldn't we?" Because the common voter might not remember lessons on the economy. Or their school might not have had a course in economy because it was squeezed out by some woke program.

Blame is one thing Doc, What is going to be the effect of all this lose of social protections?

 

[Thales750]

People will have to make responsible choices. Hmm. Should I spend $1,000 on an iPhone to be cool or $100 on a functional Android? Do I need a 60", $4,000 TV or will a 40" for $300 work?

I think a lot more people than you might think are already making those kinds of choices.
Anything else?

 

[AccessBlaster]

Or get to work period, lots of young slackers milling about.

 

[Thales750]

Or get to work period, lots of young slackers milling about.

What I meant was, anything else about what is coming?

 

[Isaac]

We are at what may be the biggest turning point in history. What do you think lies ahead?

We are definitely entering The Undiscovered Country.

A civil war UNLESS a Republican holds control of the government for 4+ years after which time people will see undeniable success and the "other side" will stop seeing conservatives in panic mode, as some kind of country-destroyer. (hopefully they'll go the other direction so we can have personal responsibility and capitalism and freedom once again).

 

[conception_native_0123]

capitalism and freedom

capitalism = freedom?

 

[Steve R.]

in some ways we are always at a crossroads: decisions are made and a path is taken that we cannot or it is doubtful we could ever reverse.
Have we passed the biggest turning point in (human) history?

I'm going to digress from a current turning point to what was an historic turning point in Western civilization, that gets little recognition (if it even gets recognized). That is the fall of Constantinople in 1453. To most people in the West it is a small footnote, easily overlooked. It represents the end of Hellenistic culture in the Balkans and the Middle East. Furthermore, the fall of Constantinople enabled the Ottoman Empire to aggressively push westward. Western Europe itself was almost overrun with the sieges of Vienna in 1529 and 1683. Fortunately, Ottoman expansion eventually fizzled out.

The fall of Constantinople manifests two (figurative) "crossroads".

• The West failed (abandoned) supporting Constantinople while it was under siege for a variety of reasons. This failure to act by the Western nations led to the Ottoman Empire almost overrunning Western Europe.
• While Constantinople fell nearly 600 years ago, the West following the end of WWI (100 years ago) could have restored Constantinople to Western control. Regretfully, that failed to materialize and it also highlights that the West has abandoned protecting Western culture. A quickie but simplistic example; Islamic countries (some even under the "protection" of the Western powers) have been allowed to establish religious Islamic theocracies that persecute Christians and Jews. Even today we can see that the West continues to ignore the plight of Christians and Jews. Recently, the West allowed Hezbollah to take over Lebanon and the West let Turkey invade and take over a portion of Cyprus. Even more current, some in the West are even trying to "protect" Hamas (radical Islmaist), which proposes the genocide of Jews in Israel. There have been numerous posts on this websites highlighting the diaspora of Christians and Jews from the Middle East and Northern Africa as a result of the West failing to stand-up for its own culture. The West, it would seem, is practicing cultural sucide.

 

[conception_native_0123]

At least the Democrats are not solely to blame. The Republicans also like to reward their donors.

there ARE only 2 parties in the USA, Pat. If we had 3, 3 would be to blame of course.

 

[Thales750]

A civil war UNLESS a Republican holds control of the government for 4+ years after which time people will see undeniable success and the "other side" will stop seeing conservatives in panic mode, as some kind of country-destroyer. (hopefully they'll go the other direction so we can have personal responsibility and capitalism and freedom once again).

The best freedom we have ever had in this country is when the people got together and literally destroyed their ships, and killed the representatives of the Crown.
Another time of great increases (in freedom) is when they burned their houses and killed the slave owners,
Let us not forget the time they tore apart the the Oil and Steel industries.

Oh yeah, don't forget the break apart of AT&T.

Capitalism in not freedom.

 

[Thales750]

A civil war UNLESS a Republican holds control of the government for 4+ years after which time people will see undeniable success and the "other side" will stop seeing conservatives in panic mode, as some kind of country-destroyer. (hopefully they'll go the other direction so we can have personal responsibility and capitalism and freedom once again).

How do you see that playing out?

 

[conception_native_0123]

despite the claims of one of them

which one?

 

[The_Doc_Man]

The best freedom we have ever had in this country is when the people got together and literally destroyed their ships, and killed the representatives of the Crown.
Another time of great increases (in freedom) is when they burned their houses and killed the slave owners,
Let us not forget the time they tore apart the the Oil and Steel industries.

Oh yeah, don't forget the break apart of AT&T.

Capitalism in not freedom.

Breaking apart AT&T? I'm an AT&T stock holder and can tell you, Ma Bell is back together again and just as persnickety as ever. In fact, because of Ma Bell and her journey through wall street, I know own pieces of NCR, Teradata, Nokia, Comcast, Warner Brothers, ... AND I did nothing. It all just happened after I inherited my mother's AT&T stock that she got from the Employee Purchase Plan after 35+ years of service to one of the Baby Bells - Southern Bell at the time. Now BellSouth. A rose by any other name...

And sorry to break your chops here, but capitalism IS freedom - but you have to be willing to take risks. Opening your own business, if you make it a good one, leads to freedom from "the wolf at the door." Entrepreneurship is foundational to the American system. But you have to believe you can make it work. Perhaps the freedom is to get rid of the gloom-and-doom types who want to hold the hands of the underprivileged because they so obviously cannot do things for themselves. That's why Big Government has to step in.

You want freedom? Let's get rid of the oppressive regulatory oversight and reduce the penalties associated with taking risks. That's why the dissolution of the Chevron Deference Doctrine was so important. We have yet to see where that will lead, but it CAN lead to the dismantling of the regulatory bureaucracy. And to me, that's a good thing.

Tearing apart the Oil and Steel industries? But they still exist, just in different forms.

Your examples are all about violence - from the American Revolution, from the Civil War, from some of the union violence that broke apart some businesses... do you have a secret violence fetish or something? Just asking.

 

[GaP42]

If the view that the age of AI and adaptable robotics is coming, which it sure is, then obviously jobs are at risk. It seems there are few jobs that won't be affected - from the most menial to many of the highly professional (accounting, legal, engineering, medical, IT). Which will be least affected... ?
Do you see the "jobs" of politicians being affected? (at least in the first/coming wave?), Entrepreneurs? others?
AI learning and tapping into huge datasets to produce output that replaces the time-consuming tasks of many jobs, being able to (successfully) analyse and propose solutions to well-formulated problems posed to them, then will those in the "professional" jobs become more productive, allowing more professionals to be engaged and greater output or will the cost of these services reduce to the public using them or to the corporates utilizing AI? Not either or, of course.
Will unemployed be the norm? Or does the game change to simply redirect the potentially unemployed to other jobs, new jobs, supplementary jobs to the AI/Robotic industry? Will it lead to chaotic disruption or an orderly transition?
Will we need to move to the "social wage" or do we let the rich become richer, the corporation becoming more powerful?
Given some discussion in other threads about who is eligible to vote (eg taxpayers only), what implications does that have for changes in the political leanings amongst the voting population?
The dis-affected are likely to blame others - the other party (those in office at the time), the foreigners, the other country, and perhaps AI/Robotics latching onto views promoted by those who give simple solutions ...

 

[Thales750]

Breaking apart AT&T? I'm an AT&T stock holder and can tell you, Ma Bell is back together again and just as persnickety as ever. In fact, because of Ma Bell and her journey through wall street, I know own pieces of NCR, Teradata, Nokia, Comcast, Warner Brothers, ... AND I did nothing. It all just happened after I inherited my mother's AT&T stock that she got from the Employee Purchase Plan after 35+ years of service to one of the Baby Bells - Southern Bell at the time. Now BellSouth. A rose by any other name...

And sorry to break your chops here, but capitalism IS freedom - but you have to be willing to take risks. Opening your own business, if you make it a good one, leads to freedom from "the wolf at the door." Entrepreneurship is foundational to the American system. But you have to believe you can make it work. Perhaps the freedom is to get rid of the gloom-and-doom types who want to hold the hands of the underprivileged because they so obviously cannot do things for themselves. That's why Big Government has to step in.

You want freedom? Let's get rid of the oppressive regulatory oversight and reduce the penalties associated with taking risks. That's why the dissolution of the Chevron Deference Doctrine was so important. We have yet to see where that will lead, but it CAN lead to the dismantling of the regulatory bureaucracy. And to me, that's a good thing.

Tearing apart the Oil and Steel industries? But they still exist, just in different forms.

Your examples are all about violence - from the American Revolution, from the Civil War, from some of the union violence that broke apart some businesses... do you have a secret violence fetish or something? Just asking.

I've been an entrepreneur my whole life. The beliefs you just stated serve one purpose, moving all the wealth to the crown. I think you actually know how false your assesments actually are.

 

[Thales750]

I've been an entrepreneur my whole life. The beliefs you just stated serve one purpose, moving all the wealth to the crown. I think you actually know how false your assertions actually are.