Crossroads, (1 Viewer)

[GaP42]

in some ways we are always at a crossroads: decisions are made and a path is taken that we cannot or it is doubtful we could ever reverse.
Have we passed the biggest turning point in (human) history? Learning how to use fire, domestication of crops, the wheel, ability to extract metals, the application of scientific method, the development of mechanical machines, nuclear energy, space exploration, electronics, AI .... and I'll tack on a few others that are maybe "softer" :
- money/tokens to facilitate trade, economics applied to direct economies, politics and collective self-determination, ending state-sanctioned slavery, equal rights for women ...

Many are not point-in-time events. There might also be less positive crossroad that we may have already arrived at:
- the demands of the human population exceeding the capacity of the planet to support that population.

There are many factors here including

• Human reproduction rates / fertility
• Available productive (agricultural) land / desertification / expanding urbanisation
• Preservation of ecological diversity / risks of monoculture
• Sustainable / available energy and transport
• Pollution / clean air and water affecting health and disease

In one sense, whatever we do, it will end up in balance - but what that is like may not be very pleasant (not in our lifetime).
Does human society have a capacity to get to a balance but avoid the savage rule of nature?
Our politics and in general, the view of business economics is to expand and grow - always. However, resources are limited, as Malthus recognised, and as population grows demand exceeds supply and populations (by extension civilisations) collapse. It becomes a Darwinian struggle for survival.
Do we have the capacity to innovate, to cooperate, to plan, to avoid conflict. One small blue speck ...

 

[conception_native_0123]

FY 2023 federal income was $4.4 trillion vs $6.6 trillion expenditure

just think about that. A TRILLION dollars. makes you shake your head, doesn't it? wow! makes me wonder how it keeps going when it's that high.

 

[Cronk]

What does one TRILLION dollars look like?

What does that look like? These various numbers are tossed around like so many doggie treats, using Google Sketchup to get a sense of what exactly a trillion dollars looks like.

Starting with a $100 dollar bill. Currently the largest U.S. denomination in general circulation. Most everyone has seen them, slighty fewer have owned them. Guaranteed to make friends wherever they go.

A packet of one hundred $100 bills is less than 1/2" thick and contains $10,000. Fits in your pocket easily and is more than enough for week or two of shamefully decadent fun.​

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Believe it or not, this next little pile is $1 million dollars (100 packets of $10,000). You could stuff that into a grocery bag and walk around with it.

​

While a measly $1 million looked a little unimpressive, $100 million is a little more respectable. It fits neatly on a standard pallet...

And $1 BILLION dollars... now we're really getting somewhere...

​

Next we'll look at ONE TRILLION dollars. This is that number we've been hearing about so much. What is a trillion dollars? Well, it's a million million. It's a thousand billion. It's a one followed by 12 zeros.



You ready for this?



It's pretty surprising.



Go ahead...



Scroll down...



Ladies and gentlemen... I give you $1 trillion dollars...

(And notice the res shirted guy is in the bottom left corner and those pallets are double stacked.)

So the next time you hear someone toss around the phrase "trillion dollars"... that's what they're talking about.

 

[Thales750]

Oil production is only one form of energy. Cancelled projects did not mean USA became a net importer of energy. In fact net energy exports are forecast to increase in 2024 and 2025.

The big disruption will be the USA imploding from its debt. Federal debt is approaching $35 trillion whereas in FY 2023 federal income was $4.4 trillion vs $6.6 trillion expenditure. The interest paid on debt is $660 billion, fast approaching defence expenditure. Tick, tick, tick.......

From a societal point of view, what do you think will happen.

 

[The_Doc_Man]

From a societal point of view, what do you think will happen.

Don't know. Let's watch China, which is approaching a collapse point when their demographics finally implode. Their one-family, one-child policy that was in force in the last half of the 20th century means that they will not have enough workers who CAN pay taxes supporting their equivalent of social security. Last year, the Chinese population DECREASED as deaths were greater than births.

Or look at what happened in Greece a few years ago when their pensions became unsustainable. Massive cuts led to many unhappy Greek citizens.

The problem is simple. People learned that they could vote to increase their own government benefits. And for too many people, the thought has been "If we can, why shouldn't we?" Because the common voter might not remember lessons on the economy. Or their school might not have had a course in economy because it was squeezed out by some woke program.

 

[Thales750]

Don't know. Let's watch China, which is approaching a collapse point when their demographics finally implode. Their one-family, one-child policy that was in force in the last half of the 20th century means that they will not have enough workers who CAN pay taxes supporting their equivalent of social security. Last year, the Chinese population DECREASED as deaths were greater than births.

Or look at what happened in Greece a few years ago when their pensions became unsustainable. Massive cuts led to many unhappy Greek citizens.

The problem is simple. People learned that they could vote to increase their own government benefits. And for too many people, the thought has been "If we can, why shouldn't we?" Because the common voter might not remember lessons on the economy. Or their school might not have had a course in economy because it was squeezed out by some woke program.

Or, I guess now in your state, religious doctrine.

 

[Thales750]

Don't know. Let's watch China, which is approaching a collapse point when their demographics finally implode. Their one-family, one-child policy that was in force in the last half of the 20th century means that they will not have enough workers who CAN pay taxes supporting their equivalent of social security. Last year, the Chinese population DECREASED as deaths were greater than births.

Or look at what happened in Greece a few years ago when their pensions became unsustainable. Massive cuts led to many unhappy Greek citizens.

The problem is simple. People learned that they could vote to increase their own government benefits. And for too many people, the thought has been "If we can, why shouldn't we?" Because the common voter might not remember lessons on the economy. Or their school might not have had a course in economy because it was squeezed out by some woke program.

Blame is one thing Doc, What is going to be the effect of all this lose of social protections?

 

[Pat Hartman]

Blame is one thing Doc, What is going to be the effect of all this lose of social protections?

People will have to make responsible choices. Hmm. Should I spend $1,000 on an iPhone to be cool or $100 on a functional Android? Do I need a 60", $4,000 TV or will a 40" for $300 work?

 

[Thales750]

People will have to make responsible choices. Hmm. Should I spend $1,000 on an iPhone to be cool or $100 on a functional Android? Do I need a 60", $4,000 TV or will a 40" for $300 work?

I think a lot more people than you might think are already making those kinds of choices.
Anything else?

 

[Pat Hartman]

Anything else?

They should get to work on time every day and go out of their way to learn new stuff so they can improve their lot in life.

 

[AccessBlaster]

Or get to work period, lots of young slackers milling about.

 

[Thales750]

Or get to work period, lots of young slackers milling about.

What I meant was, anything else about what is coming?

 

[Isaac]

We are at what may be the biggest turning point in history. What do you think lies ahead?

We are definitely entering The Undiscovered Country.

A civil war UNLESS a Republican holds control of the government for 4+ years after which time people will see undeniable success and the "other side" will stop seeing conservatives in panic mode, as some kind of country-destroyer. (hopefully they'll go the other direction so we can have personal responsibility and capitalism and freedom once again).

 

[conception_native_0123]

capitalism and freedom

capitalism = freedom?

 

[Pat Hartman]

capitalism = freedom?

Yes, except when it is controlled by the government where they pick winners and losers. Capitalism does not require stomping on the serfs. It only does that with the permission of the government. At least the Democrats are not solely to blame. The Republicans also like to reward their donors.

 

[Steve R.]

in some ways we are always at a crossroads: decisions are made and a path is taken that we cannot or it is doubtful we could ever reverse.
Have we passed the biggest turning point in (human) history?

I'm going to digress from a current turning point to what was an historic turning point in Western civilization, that gets little recognition (if it even gets recognized). That is the fall of Constantinople in 1453. To most people in the West it is a small footnote, easily overlooked. It represents the end of Hellenistic culture in the Balkans and the Middle East. Furthermore, the fall of Constantinople enabled the Ottoman Empire to aggressively push westward. Western Europe itself was almost overrun with the sieges of Vienna in 1529 and 1683. Fortunately, Ottoman expansion eventually fizzled out.

The fall of Constantinople manifests two (figurative) "crossroads".

• The West failed (abandoned) supporting Constantinople while it was under siege for a variety of reasons. This failure to act by the Western nations led to the Ottoman Empire almost overrunning Western Europe.
• While Constantinople fell nearly 600 years ago, the West following the end of WWI (100 years ago) could have restored Constantinople to Western control. Regretfully, that failed to materialize and it also highlights that the West has abandoned protecting Western culture. A quickie but simplistic example; Islamic countries (some even under the "protection" of the Western powers) have been allowed to establish religious Islamic theocracies that persecute Christians and Jews. Even today we can see that the West continues to ignore the plight of Christians and Jews. Recently, the West allowed Hezbollah to take over Lebanon and the West let Turkey invade and take over a portion of Cyprus. Even more current, some in the West are even trying to "protect" Hamas (radical Islmaist), which proposes the genocide of Jews in Israel. There have been numerous posts on this websites highlighting the diaspora of Christians and Jews from the Middle East and Northern Africa as a result of the West failing to stand-up for its own culture. The West, it would seem, is practicing cultural sucide.

 

[conception_native_0123]

At least the Democrats are not solely to blame. The Republicans also like to reward their donors.

there ARE only 2 parties in the USA, Pat. If we had 3, 3 would be to blame of course.

 

[Pat Hartman]

There are more than two parties but only two have any power and they are not into diversity, despite the claims of one of them, so there will be no third party allowed into the club.

 

[Thales750]

A civil war UNLESS a Republican holds control of the government for 4+ years after which time people will see undeniable success and the "other side" will stop seeing conservatives in panic mode, as some kind of country-destroyer. (hopefully they'll go the other direction so we can have personal responsibility and capitalism and freedom once again).

The best freedom we have ever had in this country is when the people got together and literally destroyed their ships, and killed the representatives of the Crown.
Another time of great increases (in freedom) is when they burned their houses and killed the slave owners,
Let us not forget the time they tore apart the the Oil and Steel industries.

Oh yeah, don't forget the break apart of AT&T.

Capitalism in not freedom.

 

[Thales750]

A civil war UNLESS a Republican holds control of the government for 4+ years after which time people will see undeniable success and the "other side" will stop seeing conservatives in panic mode, as some kind of country-destroyer. (hopefully they'll go the other direction so we can have personal responsibility and capitalism and freedom once again).

How do you see that playing out?