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I don't disagree with you regarding the odds being in the casinos favour. But let's break down the "guess" thing.

1. A calculated risk does not mean you can be sure of being correct. True or false?

2. A guess does not mean you are sure of being correct. True or false?

3. A calculated risk is an estimate of an outcome where you cannot be sure. True or false?

4. A guess is an estimate of an outcome where you cannot be sure. True or false?

I think you have imbued the term guess with a modifier: "random" guess. But no one has said it has to be random. It can be a calculated guess. And of course that is what casinos do.

When you take a calculated risk, you are guessing because you cannot be sure.

Edit: I am using the term "guess" to be consistent with the words used by the author of the following post:

1. A calculated risk does not mean you can be sure of being correct. True or false?

2. A guess does not mean you are sure of being correct. True or false?

3. A calculated risk is an estimate of an outcome where you cannot be sure. True or false?

4. A guess is an estimate of an outcome where you cannot be sure. True or false?

I think you have imbued the term guess with a modifier: "random" guess. But no one has said it has to be random. It can be a calculated guess. And of course that is what casinos do.

When you take a calculated risk, you are guessing because you cannot be sure.

Edit: I am using the term "guess" to be consistent with the words used by the author of the following post:

### Estimating the age of the Universe, and getting it all wrong

Now Monty opens a door and shows a zonk. The probabilities MUST still add up to 1 because there IS a car back there somewhere, so the higher math types say that all of the probability that vanished from the revealed door must have gone to the other doors. It is here that mathematicians do it...

www.access-programmers.co.uk

Their context is using the word "guess" when talking about a calculated estimate.They then guess at what the likely lifespan of this universe will be based on how old it currently is and some other principles (like the probability that we are living toward the beginning or end of its lifespan specifically vs somewhere in the middle of its lifespan).

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