Of course it has. If you don't like "trigger" than perhaps you would prefer the term "catalyst". The energy was always there, it's just that it needed a starter to make all those little pieces grow.
It's more than a decade or two.
Covid created a modal. I watched it happen. From the Inside.
Here you go Doc. the modal for modern corporate driven greed induced inflation.
Lumber board foot pricing (wholesale) over the last ten years
Wholesale lumber prices per board foot have shown significant volatility over the past decade, influenced by factors such as supply and demand, economic conditions, trade policies, and environmental disruptions.
Here's a breakdown of notable trends and price points:
- Overall trend: After fluctuating around a "normal" range for several years, prices surged dramatically during the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by sharp declines and a subsequent stabilization at levels higher than pre-pandemic rates.
- Pre-Pandemic (2014-2019): Wholesale prices experienced year-over-year changes, including both increases and decreases, suggesting a relatively stable market compared to the volatility seen during the pandemic. For example, the year 2018 saw a -24.15% change in price, while 2019 saw a +25.56% change.
- COVID-19 Pandemic Impact (2020-2022): Prices experienced unprecedented surges due to increased demand for housing and home renovations, coupled with supply chain disruptions, according to the National Association of Home Builders.
- In 2021, the average closing price reached $8.7289, significantly higher than previous years.
- Post-Peak Adjustment (Late 2022-2023): Prices began to descend after reaching record highs, as rising interest rates tempered the housing market fervor.
- 2024-2025 Trends and Outlook: Prices have stabilized somewhat, albeit at levels higher than pre-pandemic rates, notes Nasdaq.
- As of July 11, 2025, the week-to-week framing lumber composite price was $427 per 1,000 board feet, an increase of 1.2%.
- However, softwood lumber prices have dropped 0.2% over the past month but remain 18.9% higher than one year ago.
- The prospect of tariffs on Canadian lumber imports is creating uncertainty and potential price fluctuations, says HBS Dealer.
Data Sources:
- Macrotrends provides a 50-year historical chart of lumber prices, including annual average closing price data.
- Statista offers monthly and daily lumber price history, highlighting the volatility observed since 2019.
- Analysis and forecasts on current and future lumber prices are provided by sources like the National Association of Home Builders, Barden Building Products, and Nasdaq.