The Robot Revolution (2 Viewers)

Thales750

Formerly Jsanders
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The reality is that every job in the world is being replaced by Ai or Ai driven robots.

Fear is irrelevant, resistance is futile.

We are living in the last days before the impending renaissance.

It is either black death, or it is a great rebirth. it all depends on when you were born, and when you lived.
 
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We are living in the last days before the impending renaissance.

I would PERHAPS correct that to "We are living in the days in transition to the burgeoning renaissance." Your version would make it seem like the changes haven't occurred yet. I think they have already started. Just one man's opinion.
 
Times are changing at a pace that continues to accelerate - the pace itself. It's overwhelming at times to ponder.
I wonder how my Dad feels, and how I'll feel at age 80, if I'm still alive even.

I also think AI will end up being more costly than most people anticipate. So far I am seeing a lot of "AI is everywhere, AI will do everything, AI will take over the world", but little attention being given to the extreme energy costs associated with it. I wonder if most people are properly taking that into account. Small towns are battling data centers at every turn
 
Small towns are battling data centers at every turn

Residents in central Louisiana - near Alexandria - are fighting (but losing to) the data center springing up there because of the energy costs and what it will do to the cost of residential electricity.
 
The word sabotage originates from the early 1800's after the invention of the the jacquard loom, commonly considered to be the first programmable machine. A sabot was a wooden shoe, and newly unemployed textile workers would, apparently, throw their shoes into the new looms as a protest against this technological advance that threatened their livelihoods.

There is nothing new about technology rending previously important occupations obsolete.

Think of the master craftsmen who built wooden sailing ships, or the row after row of accounting clerks updating ledgers for the British East India Company, or omg, telephone operators. When I was a kid you would talk to an actual person to place a collect call. The operator would place the call, and you'd hear someone answer, and you'd hear the operator ask them if they'd accept the charges.

Plus ca change...
 
The word sabotage originates from the early 1800's after the invention of the the jacquard loom, commonly considered to be the first programmable machine. A sabot was a wooden shoe, and newly unemployed textile workers would, apparently, throw their shoes into the new looms as a protest against this technological advance that threatened their livelihoods.

There is nothing new about technology rending previously important occupations obsolete.

Think of the master craftsmen who built wooden sailing ships, or the row after row of accounting clerks updating ledgers for the British East India Company, or omg, telephone operators. When I was a kid you would talk to an actual person to place a collect call. The operator would place the call, and you'd hear someone answer, and you'd hear the operator ask them if they'd accept the charges.

Plus ca change...
You're basing that on the conditions created by the industrial revolution. During that time period over the last 250 years or so the growth of the economy was based on augmentation of human skill. So the human worker increase productivity probably 25 times in that period if not more. The takeover of AI and AI controlled robotics is the exact opposite of what you're saying. This technology is not going to augment human skill it's going to take the human out of the loop and do the job better and faster and cheaper.
 
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I would PERHAPS correct that to "We are living in the days in transition to the burgeoning renaissance." Your version would make it seem like the changes haven't occurred yet. I think they have already started. Just one man's opinion.
No I'm not saying that it's a single line of demarcation between the old and the new I mean actually the European Renaissance took you know probably two or three lifetimes before it came about but it ended with the black plague and that left death and destruction over 100 year period of half of all the people living in Europe it was indeed the dark ages. 25 years or maybe two generations past the end of the point of time you want to call the Renaissance they were living in a world of plenty there was more real estate developed than they needed there was more land dedicated to farming was more than I needed and all that excess and increase in personal wealth led to the artistic and scientific age of Discovery and you know the beginning of where we are now with the industrial revolution.
So yeah I agree with you it is already happening but it's going to accelerate over the next few years and it's going to seem like it came all at once even if it's been 50 years in the making.
Sorry I'm talking to my phone again I kind of just doesn't do very good job of putting in commas and periods and sometimes it puts the wrong word in but I'm on the tablet and it's hard for me to go back and change it so bear with me okay thanks
 
So yeah I agree with you it is already happening but it's going to accelerate over the next few years and it's going to seem like it came all at once even if it's been 50 years in the making.

Well, crap, isn't that the way of humanity, to walk around dazed and asking "What hit me? Did anyone get the number of that truck?" Regardless of what party you espouse, there is that little issue of human blind spots that have been around for most of recorded time. Different spots, same blindness.
 
This technology is not going to augment human skill it's going to take the human out of the loop and do the job better and faster and cheaper.
The jacquard loom took the human out of weaving textiles, and did the job better, faster, cheaper. Same thing.

AI will have costs and payoffs just like fire. Harnessing fire made our lives way better, but fire is also a significant hazard. Same as AI.
 
Well, crap, isn't that the way of humanity, to walk around dazed and asking "What hit me? Did anyone get the number of that truck?" Regardless of what party you espouse, there is that little issue of human blind spots that have been around for most of recorded time. Different spots, same blindness.
And most people's innumeracy. Which is the root cause of most of our ostrich like behavior.
 
The jacquard loom took the human out of weaving textiles, and did the job better, faster, cheaper. Same thing.

AI will have costs and payoffs just like fire. Harnessing fire made our lives way better, but fire is also a significant hazard. Same as AI.
Not even close the same thing, in fact, the opposite thing.

A person had to operate the jacquard loom, they had to load it, maintain it, and build new ones.

The loom, the sewing machine, the steam engine, and going all the way back the the printing press. These machine did not replace workers, they added market expansion. This is the part that most people who use the argument from the industrial revolution era always seem to miss. Those machines increased the output of workers, not replace them. The result was an explosion in the value of the workers efforts. This allowed for competition in labor acquisition. The only limiting factor was workforce size. The loom, the sewing machine, and millions of other industrial machines to come, would increase human productivity, and expand markets and the middle class around the world.

Robots are removing the human from the loop completely. We already live in a time where competition for increased workforces has declined. We are not going to go from a buying market of a few million around the world to billions, that has already happened. It's been happening since the seventies and accelerating in multiples on a logarithmic curve. That acceleration has left most people unable to see the change until recently.

Did you know the first industrial robot was installed in a GM plant in 1961? The first NC machine was built in in the late 1940s. This has been coming for s long time, and thanks to Texas Instruments and then companies like Intel digital controls are better at controlling machines than humans.

A huge human die off is coming. It's needed to make way for the age of abundance. And those people won't have to work, just make sure you do the necessary things, so your descendants are the ones that survive.
 
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The loom, the sewing machine, the steam engine, and going all the way back the the printing press. These machine did not replace workers, they added market expansion.

Except that they ALSO added new training requirements such that if you didn't learn how to use the machine, your hand labor would get squeezed out. The parallel to AI's effects is still valid.

During the war, my father worked in the shipbuilding industry (at the Andrew Higgins Company). They made two things of note - the LCVP landing boats and the Liberty ships. Dad was a loftsman on the Liberty ships, which in his case meant that he made full-scale paper templates of bulkheads and other boat structures that had to have holes cut into them, and used those templates to "chalk in" the lines where cutting had to occur - because they didn't have numerically controlled cutting tables at the time. When I started with my first real job after college (the Navy job was more than a dozen years away), that company had a division that built steel control consoles for ocean-going ships using digital control rather than pneumatic or hydraulic control lines - and THEY had the NC cutting tables to cut the time - and labor - in making hulking steel engine-room consoles.

Sometime in the late 1950s or early 1960s, we reached the point in banking that there were not enough people in the world, trained or not, to do the amount of work done by bank clerks to keep bank accounts correctly balanced. We crossed the "clerking automation" threshold at that time. If you have ever seen Bridge on the River Kwai you might remember Lieutenant Joyce, who joined the commando team going after the titular bridge. When he interviewed for the position, they asked him what he did before the war. He was a bank clerk who added columns of numbers that had been added by another clerk and would be added again by a third clerk - all in the name of assuring that the numbers were added properly. And that was his job each day... nothing else. Just hours of adding numbers by hand because in the time frame of the movie, computers were still entirely a military thing. The IBM 360 series of computers and their competitor's counter-offerings essentially saved banks from being unable to do business. But the bank clerks suddenly weren't in demand.

After WW II, demand for manufactured goods skyrocketed. It was a time of great prosperity, and there were jobs for a lot of soldiers coming home. But the manufacturers couldn't keep up with the demand. Unions put enough pressure on manufacturers that they sought alternatives - and found them. Robotic assembly lines simply meant that if you still wanted a job, you needed to know how to use the updated equipment.

The US space program had loads of the people who held the job of "computers" - essentially using an advanced mechanical adding machine - to do the math required for the calculation of trajectories and orbital parameters. As portrayed in the movie Hidden Figures, when the IBM 7000-series computers came on board to do that particular kind of math, the women who held the former job of "computers" became computer programmers. They adapted and kept good jobs.

The point is that automation of ANY kind is needed to maintain levels of production, and human adaptability is needed for the worker's to survive. Because the only thing constant in the world is CHANGE. Adapt and thrive. Stagnate and become relegated to the economic trash heap. This isn't a political thing - it is an evolutionary thing.

You are fighting nature when you bemoan this trend. Good luck trying to stop it, because it's not nice to balk Mother Nature.
 
To me, the big threat is not to isolated professions such as bank clerks or metal workers. AI can be adapted to assist in the work of a huge variety of environments and situations. To use a catchy phrase, "it's everywhere, all the time". People who were bank clerks could find other jobs for which their skills qualified them. As long as they didn't identify as "Bank Clerk" as refuse to change, there was a place for them.

Those who are displaced by AI are not nearly so likely to find alternatives because those alternatives are also going to be impacted by their own specialized AI assistants.
 
Not even close the same thing, in fact, the opposite thing.

A person had to operate the jacquard loom, they had to load it, maintain it, and build new ones.

The loom, the sewing machine, the steam engine, and going all the way...
History is rife with people confidently predicting the end of the world. If you lived in Europe in 1940 or if you were a native American and the buffalo stopped coming, you'd have had a far stronger claim than "because AI," and you would still have been incorrect.

• Change is guaranteed.
• How change will occur calls for speculation.
• It is only a charlatan who speculates with confidence.
 
Except that they ALSO added new training requirements such that if you didn't learn how to use the machine, your hand labor would get squeezed out. The parallel to AI's effects is still valid.

During the war, my father worked in the shipbuilding industry (at the Andrew Higgins Company). They made two things of note - the LCVP landing boats and the Liberty ships. Dad was a loftsman on the Liberty ships, which in his case meant that he made full-scale paper templates of bulkheads and other boat structures that had to have holes cut into them, and used those templates to "chalk in" the lines where cutting had to occur - because they didn't have numerically controlled cutting tables at the time. When I started with my first real job after college (the Navy job was more than a dozen years away), that company had a division that built steel control consoles for ocean-going ships using digital control rather than pneumatic or hydraulic control lines - and THEY had the NC cutting tables to cut the time - and labor - in making hulking steel engine-room consoles.

Sometime in the late 1950s or early 1960s, we reached the point in banking that there were not enough people in the world, trained or not, to do the amount of work done by bank clerks to keep bank accounts correctly balanced. We crossed the "clerking automation" threshold at that time. If you have ever seen Bridge on the River Kwai you might remember Lieutenant Joyce, who joined the commando team going after the titular bridge. When he interviewed for the position, they asked him what he did before the war. He was a bank clerk who added columns of numbers that had been added by another clerk and would be added again by a third clerk - all in the name of assuring that the numbers were added properly. And that was his job each day... nothing else. Just hours of adding numbers by hand because in the time frame of the movie, computers were still entirely a military thing. The IBM 360 series of computers and their competitor's counter-offerings essentially saved banks from being unable to do business. But the bank clerks suddenly weren't in demand.

After WW II, demand for manufactured goods skyrocketed. It was a time of great prosperity, and there were jobs for a lot of soldiers coming home. But the manufacturers couldn't keep up with the demand. Unions put enough pressure on manufacturers that they sought alternatives - and found them. Robotic assembly lines simply meant that if you still wanted a job, you needed to know how to use the updated equipment.

The US space program had loads of the people who held the job of "computers" - essentially using an advanced mechanical adding machine - to do the math required for the calculation of trajectories and orbital parameters. As portrayed in the movie Hidden Figures, when the IBM 7000-series computers came on board to do that particular kind of math, the women who held the former job of "computers" became computer programmers. They adapted and kept good jobs.

The point is that automation of ANY kind is needed to maintain levels of production, and human adaptability is needed for the worker's to survive. Because the only thing constant in the world is CHANGE. Adapt and thrive. Stagnate and become relegated to the economic trash heap. This isn't a political thing - it is an evolutionary thing.

You are fighting nature when you bemoan this trend. Good luck trying to stop it, because it's not nice to balk Mother Nature.
I am so supportive of the robotic revolution. I just understand that it is going to replace every worker in the word. Everything you just said is proof of that. Thank you for winning my argument for me. :cool:
 
History is rife with people confidently predicting the end of the world. If you lived in Europe in 1940 or if you were a native American and the buffalo stopped coming, you'd have had a far stronger claim than "because AI," and you would still have been incorrect.

• Change is guaranteed.
• How change will occur calls for speculation.
• It is only a charlatan who speculates with confidence.
I'm predicting a rebirth. the next Renaissance. we just happen to be living in the last years of a dark age.
The changes is happening all around us.
 
This is a close up of part of an assembly of a robotic factory that I invented and designed.

Around the world there are millions of people designing machines that have never been thought of before, and many of them operate in environments that used to employ thousands and now have a few maintenance folks.
1765837329835.png
 

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