The Narnia Code

[Alc]

The key point being that accident/coincidence is totally unacceptable as a reason for "why". However, when we move to all the things that have to be in place for earth to support life then suddenly accident/coincidence becomes acceptable for the reason as to "why"!!!!!!

Okay, so you've named an example where there is an obvious answer to anyone with a basic understanding of cold vd warm-blooded animals. Are you saying that, of everything that happens on earth and beyond, nothing is a coincidence? I find three dollars in a coat pocket. Later on, I see three red cars. Am I allowed to think that this is simply a coincidence, or is there some deeper meaning? If coincidences are permissible, why are you limiting their scale?

Let's now assume that an observer is not someone who totally eliminates the possibility of a supernatural. In other words, all "possibles" are on the table. A supernatural is a more logical choice than some trillion zillion billion to 1 chance that it was by accident/coincidence.

Only if you allow that something which is physically impossible, based on all of your current knowledge, is more probable than something which is just extremely unlikely.
The supernatural - in any form - is a hell of a lot less probable for anyone who doesn't believe in it.

 

[Mike375]

The three dollars in your pocket followed by seeing three red cars is a once only. But what if every time you had three dollars you always saw three red cars? If that happened then I think you would ask "why".

Here is a link

http://blog.chronofish.com/?p=47

If you have not seen this before you will have seen similar analogies. What the fellow says is correct about dropping the jar of pennies on the floor enough times and for long enough then eventually we will will see an exact repeat of how they previously landed.

However, if the pennies were truly like what is needed to illustrate coincidence for earth then we would need to have them land in a specific way, not just have two occasions where they landed the same way. Even if we select the pattern of dropped pennies based on the first drop and then continue until we get a repeat, that is not the same. The earth situation would be closer to actually positioning the pennies where they are needed. Now that will be much harder to duplicate. In fact depening how we position them it might be impossible to reproduce that layout no matter how many times we drop the pennies.

 

[Alc]

The three dollars in your pocket followed by seeing three red cars is a once only. But what if every time you had three dollars you always saw three red cars? If that happened then I think you would ask "why".

Yes, I probably would, but it never does. To be more accurate, it may happen every time I find money, but I'm not looking for the pattern, so I wouldn't notice it.

Besides, if we're talking about how everything got created and continues to exist, there would only need to be the one time that things went 'right'. There may have been ten million 'wrong' combinations that didn't produce life before the one that did. After that, processes like evolution take over.

Since life has existed, there are plenty of 'failed' experiments where animals or plants proved unsuitable to their environment and died out. Dinosaurs spring to mind. If they had been put here as part of some plan, why allow them to die out? Was is just to provide us with oil, a little further into the plan?

 

[Mike375]

Yes, I probably would, but it never does. To be more accurate, it may happen every time I find money, but I'm not looking for the pattern, so I wouldn't notice it.

But if you did notice the pattern then you would ask "why"?

Besides, if we're talking about how everything got created and continues to exist, there would only need to be the one time that things went 'right'. There may have been ten million 'wrong' combinations that didn't produce life before the one that did. After that, processes like evolution take over.

I think you need more than once. Firstly the earth had to form in the right orbit, be of a size for appropriate gravity etc and etc. I don't think there is any science literature that supports it all happening together, just the opposite. Did the atmosphere just appear at 20/80 oxygen/nitrogen.

Since life has existed, there are plenty of 'failed' experiments where animals or plants proved unsuitable to their environment and died out. Dinosaurs spring to mind. If they had been put here as part of some plan, why allow them to die out? Was is just to provide us with oil, a little further into the plan?

I think you got it right when you said evolution took over. But evolution needs the conditions on earth and that is the trick

I saw a documentary on cable TV recently that was going though the things the moon gives us and their vital importance. What chance is there of the earth being "just right" and the moon is not only "just right" but is by far and away the largest moon in the solar system when related to its planet size.

 

[Alc]

But if you did notice the pattern then you would ask "why"?

Genuinely, I am not trying to be facetious, If for every day of the next year I picked a number between one and ten, truned around and immediately saw that many red cars, I would still out it down to coincindence. I have no belief at all in the supernatural and so, while I might be surprised by it, I wouldn't think there was any kind of explanation for it.

I think you need more than once. Firstly the earth had to form in the right orbit, be of a size for appropriate gravity etc and etc. I don't think there is any science literature that supports it all happening together, just the opposite. Did the atmosphere just appear at 20/80 oxygen/nitrogen.

What I meant was we don't know how many 'attempts' (for want of a better word) occurred before we 'got it right'. Maybe there was once a 21/79 mix, then a 35/65, then who knows? Perhaps the atmosphere was onec spot on but the gravity was off by a bit, or vice versa.

Just because it's right now, doesn't mean that this was the first 'attempt' the universe had at creating life. The first billion may have come close but failed.

I saw a documentary on cable TV recently that was going though the things the moon gives us and their vital importance. What chance is there of the earth being "just right" and the moon is not only "just right" but is by far and away the largest moon in the solar system when related to its planet size.

I get your point, but again I don't find it hard to believe that it could have happened by chance. I think it's only some human mind's need to explain away everything that makes this hard to follow.

 

[Mike375]

What I meant was we don't know how many 'attempts' (for want of a better word) occurred before we 'got it right'. Maybe there was once a 21/79 mix, then a 35/65, then who knows? Perhaps the atmosphere was onec spot on but the gravity was off by a bit, or vice versa.

Agreed. But you still need the basics in place.

But lets take the moon again. Would you agree if there "were lots of attempts" to get the right size and right orbit then logically earth would have lots of moons.

If there were lots of attempts to get a planet of earth's size and orbit then surely there would be a lot more planets.

Since we have only one moon and there are only 9 planets (and with none of the others even being close to the requirements) then logic would suggest that the moon and earth were first attempts.

And just for fun, what about the moon being the same apparent size as the sun so we can have an eclipse?

If you take all of it then the chances of it happening are about 10 zillion trillion billion times less than have the winning lotto ticket every week and your wife has second prize every week. In other words, getting very close to meeting the definition of impossible.

So logically it is either supernatural or something else but chance would be eliminated.

 

[Alc]

Agreed. But you still need the basics in place.

But lets take the moon again. Would you agree if there "were lots of attempts" to get the right size and right orbit then logically earth would have lots of moons.

If there were lots of attempts to get a planet of earth's size and orbit then surely there would be a lot more planets.

Since we have only one moon and there are only 9 planets (and with none of the others even being close to the requirements) then logic would suggest that the moon and earth were first attempts.

And just for fun, what about the moon being the same apparent size as the sun so we can have an eclipse?

If you take all of it then the chances of it happening are about 10 zillion trillion billion times less than have the winning lotto ticket every week and your wife has second prize every week. In other words, getting very close to meeting the definition of impossible.

So logically it is either supernatural or something else but chance would be eliminated.

This isn't made any easier by your propensity for wind-ups, but I'll carry on on the assumption that this is a proper conversation.

I didn't mean that Earth had a number of attempts, I meant that within the whole of existence, we could have gotten lucky while untold others may not have. If I enter a raffle where there are ten million tickets and mine is the only genuine one, the chances of my winning are very slim. If I do, is that because I got lucky or because some outside force influenced the results?

Has anyone every determined how many other solar systems there are (genuine question)? Assuming the number to be, if not infinite, then huge, who knows how close other planets elsewhere came to supporting life? What if there are a number of planets for each of these solar systems that don't support life? Assume- just for arguments' sake - a million solar systems exist and that each solar system has nine planets. How incompetent is this intelligent force if he/she/it only got it right on one of them?

 

[Rabbie]

But the "spiratural" is an outcome depending on the "why"

Why is the earth just the right distance from the sun plus a multitude of other aspects that need to be satisfied to support life. The odds of that happening from only 9 planets must be incredibly low. There are two possible "whys". First is by accident/coincidence. But the odds are infinitely small. In fact if the subject did not invite religion into the debate, then the odds are so small it would normally be eliminated for the "why" and the search would continue for a better "why" than by accident.

Consider the following. In summer time in Sydney little lizards will appear later in the morning. Then sometime later they will disappear and then come back a bit later. Is this an accident that they always do this, a coincidence? Such an answer for the "why" is totally unacceptable and further investigation is required. Further investigation of course revealed they are cold blooded and that is the reason "why" they appear later in the morning, disappear and then reappear later.

The key point being that accident/coincidence is totally unacceptable as a reason for "why". However, when we move to all the things that have to be in place for earth to support life then suddenly accident/coincidence becomes acceptable for the reason as to "why"!!!!!!

Let's now assume that an observer is not someone who totally eliminates the possibility of a supernatural. In other words, all "possibles" are on the table. A supernatural is a more logical choice than some trillion zillion billion to 1 chance that it was by accident/coincidence.

Mike, Its not that strange. If our planet was not suitable for life we wouldn't be here. So far we don't know if life has occurred just once in the universe, or just once in the galaxy or many times. Whatever the answer it still doesn't mean that it was planned.

We do know that the earth has changed a lot since life started here. The primitive atmosphere had no free oxygen - the free oxygen has all been produced by bacteria and photosynthesis.

 

[dan-cat]

I think you got it right when you said evolution took over. But evolution needs the conditions on earth and that is the trick

This is a crucial point and one that I'm fascinated with. The conditions for evolution to succeed have to exist BEFORE evolution takes place.

Evolution is working WITHIN the boundaries of a set of conditions. It fascinates me that this set of conditions, that must have existed at the very beginning, is able to continually accomodate a concept like evolution.

When I talk of 'a set of conditions' I am referring to concepts like gravity, shape and pattern. They enwrap evolution but are in themselves seemingly constant.

 

[Mike375]

Alc and Rabbie,

Above I posted chance has to be eliminated and thus it is supernatural or something else. I have a theory or a part theory on the "something else"

Imagine if you will or human life has been wiped out and some very advanced aliens arrive here. Although they are extremely advanced they are blind and blind in the sense that their species had never had the sense of sight.

Once they were on earth for a short period (and remember no humans around to explain things) they would strike a big puzzle that defied all explanation. The puzzle would be caused by glass being everywhere.Why would buildings, cars etc be made super strong and then weakened etc and etc. Then there would be all the various things like TVs, monitors etc. After years of trying to solve the puzzle they develop sight...instant solution to the puzzle.

I often wonder if the solution to earth (and related topics) is simple but we are missing a sense to "see it"

But chance is so remote it can't be a considered option. For example, you can talk about bacteria and photosynthesis generating the free oxygen but that is only a single aspect. In other words this is not like dropping the jar of pennies it is like dropping thousands of jars of pennies and having each jar all land in a prescribed position. Even the properties of the various elements being "just right" is incredible.

Also, with the bacteria and photosynthesis generating the free oxygen first up the life of bacteria has to start. Then it has to be something that will generate free oxygen.

One of the big problems with the "chance" option is that each chance happening needs to preceded by another chance happening. So we then have to start multiplying a zillion billion by itself and that is for only one chance following another chance.

 

[Mike375]

This is a crucial point and one that I'm fascinated with. The conditions for evolution to succeed have to exist BEFORE evolution takes place.

Exactly.

All the scientific explanations are done in isolation.

For example, Rabbie says bacteria and photosynthesis generated the free oxygen. Great but an awful of stuff had to be in place for that one to happen

 

[Atomic Shrimp]

Agreed. But you still need the basics in place.

But lets take the moon again. Would you agree if there "were lots of attempts" to get the right size and right orbit then logically earth would have lots of moons.

If there were lots of attempts to get a planet of earth's size and orbit then surely there would be a lot more planets.

Since we have only one moon and there are only 9 planets (and with none of the others even being close to the requirements) then logic would suggest that the moon and earth were first attempts.

And just for fun, what about the moon being the same apparent size as the sun so we can have an eclipse?

If you take all of it then the chances of it happening are about 10 zillion trillion billion times less than have the winning lotto ticket every week and your wife has second prize every week. In other words, getting very close to meeting the definition of impossible.

So logically it is either supernatural or something else but chance would be eliminated.

The universe is big, really really big.
Certainly if it were the case that all of the 'attempts' to get Earth, the Moon, etc, just right were carried out in the same location, we would see evidence of them here.
But it doesn't need to work like that - the universe is big - the 'attempts' - in all their subtle variations, are distributed all over - this is the one that worked, therefore, we can be here to talk about it.

This place isn't special in order to let us be here. We're here because it's special enough that it could happen.
In all the other places in the universe where the conditions are not 'just right', and luck didn't strike, there won't be anybody there to notice or complain, because the conditions don't permit it.

The other thing to note is that the conditions here could probably have been a bit different, or the dice could have fallen differently, and life could have developed, but not like it is now.

Looking at the result of something arising from a long sequence of choices can give rise to the incorrect conclusion that because it's unlikely, it should never have happened - for example:
Take a deck of 52 cards, shuffle them and deal them out in a row. You always end up with a sequence of 52 different cards, but the chance of getting any specific, exact sequence is 1 in 8*10^67

-You just routinely performed an event that only happens one time out of every 80 million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million times

You always get a result. Any very specific result is very unlikely. In a universe of attempts, lots of different results happen. We're in one of them.

 

[Mike375]

Let's say the deck of cards number gives a planet of the right size (gravity)

Next it needs to be in the right orbit. Then it needs an extremely unusual moon, no other moon in the solar system is even close to the size of our moon in relation to the size of earth. Then it needs to have a certain composition.

And by the way, I am aware of the position of "if it did not happen we not be here to talk about it. But the facts are we are here.

To make your card example closer to the mark we would first need to randomly cut up a tree and randomly hope paper is made and then randomly hope that the paper forms in the format of the cards and randomly hope there is 52 cards and so on.

The card deal is only one of very many 1 in 8*10^67 situations. The 1 in 8*10^67 analogy/number is only true for a single event.

But there is another problem. The 1 in 8*10^67 assumes there is nothing about the cards that weight things to or against a certain sequence. Such weighting could mean that many sequences would never appear because of the physical restraints imposed by the weighting.

It gets worse. To equal the earth/life deal the 1 in 8*10^67 actually has to be done with a different deck of cards everytime. Also has to be done in all weather. So sometimes the cards are soaking wet.

The 1 in 8*10^67 is strictly a mathematic result with zero allowance for physical properties. If we were to introduce all the physical variations into the equation then the number will be more like 1 in (8*10^67)^8*10^67 and that is to only get the sequence. After we get the sequence we have lots more 1 in 8*10^67 to go through.

The only way I see can "chance" as the answer is to adopt are position that a supernatural is not allowed for consideration.

 

[Rabbie]

At the end of the day some of us think it just happened and others think that it was all part of a carefully thought-out plan. None of us actually knows for definite so it comes down to which view you think is the most likely and requires the fewest assumptions or leaps of faith.

I suspect that very few are going to change rheir view unless much stronger arguments/evidence is presented so lets agree to differ on this and find something else to debate

 

[Mike375]

At the end of the day some of us think it just happened and others think that it was all part of a carefully thought-out plan. None of us actually knows for definite so it comes down to which view you think is the most likely and requires the fewest assumptions or leaps of faith.

I suspect that very few are going to change rheir view unless much stronger arguments/evidence is presented so lets agree to differ on this and find something else to debate

Exactly. And unless science rolls out some special stuff or God decides to pull off a few miracles it won't change. We are also a bit limited here because there are only a few players.

Earlier today I spent some time on the forum on Dawkins site (very large forum) and not much said there we have not seen here over the various threads.

 

[Rich]

God decides to pull off a few miracles it won't change

I thought some book claimed that he already had

 

[Mike375]

I thought some book claimed that he already had

But people don't believe the book so they need a few fresh ones. Same deal on the other side with evolution. People need to see a few birds with half a wing etc.

 

[dan-cat]

-You just routinely performed an event that only happens one time out of every 80 million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million million times

You always get a result. Any very specific result is very unlikely. In a universe of attempts, lots of different results happen. We're in one of them.

What of concepts like geometry. For example, are you saying that a 'structure' interpretated by us as Pythagoras Theorem was created in this way?

 

[dan-cat]

The universe is big, really really big.
Certainly if it were the case that all of the 'attempts' to get Earth, the Moon, etc, just right were carried out in the same location, we would see evidence of them here.
But it doesn't need to work like that - the universe is big - the 'attempts' - in all their subtle variations, are distributed all over - this is the one that worked, therefore, we can be here to talk about it.

But conditions are right for the existence of elements throughout the universe. Well for as much as we can see of it.

 

[Atomic Shrimp]

If we were to introduce all the physical variations into the equation then the number will be more like 1 in (8*10^67)^8*10^67 and that is to only get the sequence. After we get the sequence we have lots more 1 in 8*10^67 to go through.

Even if it is, that doesn't matter, because the universe is so very much larger than a pack of cards, and has been around a long time. Out of the whole universe (which, as I mentioned, is big), the right conditions only have to have happened in one instance, for us to be here discussing it.