Civil War Beginning in Russia (1 Viewer)

The_Doc_Man

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All it would take would be one unsuccessful attempt on Prigozhin's life and I think things would warm up again. Unfortunately for him, Russia is, more often than not, successful on such attempts on the first try.
 

Steve R.

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Very disappointing interview by Laura Ingraham. Fox news finally gets someone who would apparently be able to shed some light on what is happening instead of the usual empty talking heads pontificating on virtualy no information. The big revel by Illarionov is that the Biden administration told the Ukrainians not to take advantage of Prigozhin actions, meaning not to attack the Russian while they were "weak".
Does that mean that the Biden administration does not want the Ukraine to win? Endless war on the horizon instead?
Instead of following-up on this potential explosive disclosure, Ingraham unceremoniously cuts him off! :mad:
 

Pat Hartman

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Biden has made it clear that his goal is to overthrow Putin. Maybe he's coming to his senses and realizes that there are worse options. I'm not sure when "my" government is going to stop meddling in the affairs of other sovereign nations. The hypercritical Democrats carry on and on and on and on about how they think Russia is meddling in our affairs but they have no problemo with us meddling in Russian affairs. No wonder Putin thought he needed to invade Ukraine. ---- NO I am not justifying his actions but I do understand them.
 

Steve R.

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No wonder Putin thought he needed to invade Ukraine. -
A year ago, I wrote:

One of the touts made by the Biden administration, int his case Harris
THE VICE PRESIDENT: Let me start by saying I appreciate and admire President Zelenskyy’s desire to join NATO. And one of, again, the founding principles of NATO is that each country must have the ability — unimpaired, unimpeded — to determine their own future, both in terms of their form of government and, in this case, whether they desire to be a member of NATO.

And I’ll put that in context, because the obvious is also the point, which is that: and therefore no other country can tell anyone whether they should or should not join NATO. That should be their independent choice. That is the point of sovereignty. So I respect President Zelenskyy’s desire to be a member of NATO.
 

The_Doc_Man

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I think one of the straws that broke Putin's back was that if Ukraine gets and keeps the Crimean region, Russia has no guaranteed sea port during the winter when northern Russia is colder than a well-digger's heel tap. They've got the Baltic Sea, the Barents Sea, the Kara Sea, the Laptev Sea, the East Siberian Sea, and the Chukechi Sea - ALL of which freeze over during that fabled Russian winter. Between Turkey and Ukraine, the Black Sea is not a reliable outlet for them ... unless they own the Crimea region.
 

Isaac

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When I was in business I never thought that the theory of "the devil you know" was ever an acceptable reason for keeping someone on who had let you down or wasn't good enough. It only emboldened them, often they thought well I got away with that so I'll get away with anything. But if the replacement was useless, I'd get rid of them as well. No problem. They had to maintain standards, my standards!
I always believed that if someone let you down once, then they were more likely to let you down again. So get rid ASAP.

But TheDocMan, you are absolutely right, with this new but predicted situation, we don't have any control. And this guy Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries are ruthless. The hammer is not a symbol, it is there to force compliance and is often used. Someone like Priogozhin as president of Russia will make Putin look like a boy scout, plus he'll never obey, or kowtow to China, as does Putin.

My guess is that if Prigozhin takes over Russia he will negotiate a peace with Ukraine. Then after he's established as ruler, he'll go back and finish the job in Ukraine with frightening enthusiasm.

Times they are a changin'

  • you are right about the 'devil you know' theory. it all depends on the case. when you get sick (enough) of a situation, you become willing to experiment with the unknown (or increasingly lesser-known depending on just how sick you are of it).
  • historically, in hindsight, (this is just my subjective feeling), it seems like the "devil you know" has probably often been a safer bet, again, in hindsight, so I don't usually harshly condemn people for what they've tried, if intentions were good and calculations were halfway reasonable. there are major exceptions, of course.....for all the America-bashing you hear of today and a few failures in recent decades, let's all be glad that in the world wars our great grandfathers weren't pacifists.
  • to make an extremely sweeping generalization (admittedly), many of the Worst authoritarian regimes in modern history made their grasp firm by eliminating Religion and criminalizing free speech. Conversely, certain types of people "fought back". With CONVICTION. Conviction is different than hate.
I heard about this in a hotel room while on a weekend trip with my wife. That Prigozhin guy makes all the spy movies I've watched suddenly seem a lot LESS fanciful....Yeah, Russian bad guys actually do look like that! I wouldn't want to be on EITHER of their bad sides.

The fact that Prigozhin went to Belarus says a LOT. Perhaps he was trying to get to sleep one night, and images of what he himself does to traitors while they're hanging from the ceiling came to his mind ... and he hopped on that train to Belarus in 2 shakes of a lamb's tail. I guess everybody gets scared at some point.

Wagner is an absolutely fascinating reminder that it actually is possible for "mercenary" non-governmental militia groups to slowly but surely climb to power and options, and a bit scary. I think of US military contractors. Do we really KNOW exactly how much separation-of-powers there is, technology-wise, in that industry? Is anyone keeping watch, are there any rules?

Or is it entirely possible for one major corporation to possess the technology, software, hardware, talent, and capital to suddenly hold the world hostage with the same quality of weapons they sell to the government ??

I'm all for privatization in many cases, but not all ...
 

The_Doc_Man

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Or is it entirely possible for one major corporation to possess the technology, software, hardware, talent, and capital to suddenly hold the world hostage with the same quality of weapons they sell to the government ??

The answer to this question veers from the subject, but I am thinking about AI and its abilities as revealed so far and as potentially developed. So far, the AIs that we know about either would not pass or would barely pass the Turing Test. But none of them so far have reached the level that we need to consider Isaac Asimov's "Three Laws of Robotics." If one corporation develops a real, sentient AI then I think that is the answer to your question, Isaac.

Several different movie productions dealt with the (usually mistaken) idea of giving a sentient or near-sentient AI control of our nuclear arsenal or other dire weapons.

Colossus: The Forbin Project (1970, with a young Eric Braedon of soap-opera fame) dealt with a "benevolent" but unyielding AI to FORCE peace among all nations worldwide. With explosive nuclear persuasion for those who would not follow orders.

War Games (1983, Matthew Broderick and Ally Sheedy) dealt with a similar mistake. In this case, a semi-sentient nuclear control computer with an ineffective back door that allowed a young hacker to trigger the sequence that would have led to international nuclear war.

Let us not forget Arnold Schwarzenegger's epic The Terminator (1984, also starring Linda Hamilton and Michael Beihn), with a fully sentient Skynet triggering the nuclear holocaust and with walking AI units as low-level enforcers. Then, in true Hollywood fashion, five more versions of the same... or was it six? I lost interest and lost count long ago.

And the grandaddy of many of them, though with a slightly different tone and different weaponry, was The Day the Earth Stood Still (1961, Michael Rennie, Sam Jaffe, Patricia Neal) about interplanetary emissary Klaatu and his robot partner Gort. In the original story, Gort was the actual leader of the expedition and was an AI who would also enforce peace. (The tanks and artillery units who fired on him found out the hard way about alien disintegrator beams.) Klaatu was merely the human who could perhaps persuade people to listen to the message. In the movie, they down-played the idea that Gort was in charge.

Since I mentioned Isaac Asimov, we can't forget the movie I, Robot (2004, Will Smith, Bridget Moynihan, James Cromwell) where the central AI that controlled ALL robots decided that the only way to protect humanity included protecting humanity from itself, thus causing a total lockdown of a non-nuclear variety. The script was an adaptation and combination of several of Asimov's short stories, some of which were cautionary tales about being careless with robotic AI, though none of the stories ever had a planet-wide robotic uprising.

To answer the question, I had to diverge off-topic. Let's stick to the thread topic and take this up elsewhere if you feel it is necessary.
 

ebs17

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Wagner is an absolutely fascinating reminder that it actually is possible for "mercenary" non-governmental militia groups to slowly but surely climb to power and options, and a bit scary. I
To complete the picture, Wagner is the extended arm of the Russian secret service, and at least until recently Wagner was fully funded by the Russian state (according to Putin).
 

Steve R.

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Assuming the headline below is true, it didn't take long for Putin (allegedly) to exact revenge in typical old style Soviet tactics.
Maybe the remains of the Wagner Group should switch sides and join the Ukrainians. (But then they are mercenaries and are noted for their brutality.)
It's not immediately clear whether Prigozhin is among the 10 reported to have died in the crash. The Pentagon told Fox News Digital that it is monitoring the situation.
 

AccessBlaster

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When the Wagner Group broke off and headed for Moscow I was thinking this would be their fate. They had to know if they didn't kill Putin it would blow up in their faces eventually.

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MsAccessNL

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Unbelievable news! Wagner is marching towards Moscow with an army of 25,000 troops to remove the military leadership. I am astonished at how suddenly things can change around.

Additionally, this must surely have a huge impact on Russia's front line defences in Ukraine. Think of the impact on morale, troops will have to be diverted to defend Moscow and Ukraine could surely make breakthroughs on the front line as gaps appear.

The optics of this for Putin are terrible. He is losing his grip on power.

Is this the end for Putin and his dictatorship? Could Russia collapse?
Storming the capitol didn’t affect much people, T is running again.probably the Russians wiil react the same, why?, because they are humans like you and I. There is only a difference if you want to see a difference. Let it go, if you where born in Russia, you would have hated Americans, it’s not genetic, it’s learned hate.
 

Jon

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Storming the capitol didn’t affect much people, T is running again.probably the Russians wiil react the same, why?, because they are humans like you and I. There is only a difference if you want to see a difference. Let it go, if you where born in Russia, you would have hated Americans, it’s not genetic, it’s learned hate.
Russia and America have very different societies, rules and culture. Free press is one of them. A dictatorship is another. Storming the capital vs Wagner military group is a false equivalence.
 

Cotswold

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Considering previous form and a tendency for dissidents to leap from a 20th floor balcony, challenging Putin was never going to be a good career move.
 

Uncle Gizmo

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Uncle Gizmo

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I do not see a USA President in this clip:-



Before watching the above clip I had watched the Tucker - Trump interview which impressed me! I made the following comment on Twitter:-

I watched it here, this morning in the UK.
I didn't see Donald Trump, I saw a President...
The USA has a chance to recover.
The USA has a chance to square things with Russia.
The USA has the potential to work with China.
But only through the intervention of President Trump.

 

NauticalGent

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I had no idea this was going on. I guess I need to turn on the damn TV more often...

Nah, I kinda like being in the dark...
 

Jon

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I thought Tucker said in private that he can't stand Trump. If that is true, I wonder how the two of them can have an interview. Maybe Trump just thinks half the world can't stand him so he is used to it, and that Tucker is a useful conduit through which to get his political message across.
 

Steve R.

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I had no idea this was going on. I guess I need to turn on the damn TV more often...

Nah, I kinda like being in the dark...
The good news, when the apocalypse comes you will be blissfully unaware.
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Since the debate emerged as a sub-topic in this thread; there was one extremely disappointing aspect.
The moderators posed the question to the candidates of whether they would support Trump should be be convicted of any of the charges against him. The candidate responses were exceedingly disappointing. None of them brought up that the charges are bogus (Ramaswamy excepted???). Each of the candidates on stage should have highlighted that these charges are bogus and should have condemned the Democrats for undermining democracy. For politicians it is surprising that they did not take that as an opportunity to condemn the Democrats for political points. The Democratic Party is conducting a political hit job on Trump to cripple him. This is disturbing third world politics.
 

NauticalGent

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The good news, when the apocalypse comes you will be blissfully unaware.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Since the debate emerged as a sub-topic in this thread; there was one extremely disappointing aspect.
The moderators posed the question to the candidates of whether they would support Trump should be be convicted of any of the charges against him. The candidate responses were exceedingly disappointing. None of them brought up that the charges are bogus (Ramaswamy excepted???). Each of the candidates on stage should have highlighted that these charges are bogus and should have condemned the Democrats for undermining democracy. For politicians it is surprising that they did not take that as an opportunity to condemn the Democrats for political points. The Democratic Party is conducting a political hit job on Trump to cripple him. This is disturbing third world politics.
Exactly! Although I did take a sneak peek at the GOP circus and I have to admit, I like this Ramaswamy guy more than I want to...
 

The_Doc_Man

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Exactly! Although I did take a sneak peek at the GOP circus and I have to admit, I like this Ramaswamy guy more than I want to...

Perhaps part of that is because he is a relatively new face to politics compared to the others. Which means HE is as much an outsider as Trump was in 2016.
 

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