Designated Survivor

[Uncle Gizmo]

Due to some major catastrophe, YOU have become the leader of your country, a bit like "Designated Survivor" - During your term of your office, the coronavirus hits. How do you handle it?

 

[The_Doc_Man]

Do my damnedest to correctly inform the people of the risks as soon as they can be reasonably quantified. Talk to industry leaders about ramping up needed supplies, with the carrot-and-stick approach. They can switch their production to personal protective equipment - or WE can switch their production for them whether they like it or not. (But first give them a chance to be "good guys.") Send messages to governors everywhere informing them of the risks of not following isolation techniques. Then, if they decide to be uncooperative, divert funds elsewhere to demonstrate that money talks pretty loud when you care to listen.

 

[Uncle Gizmo]

Talk to industry leaders about ramping up needed supplies, with the carrot-and-stick approach.

• I assume that it is beneficial to wear a mask.
• I am confused because there is no legislation in place insisting on the wearing of masks.
• I read somewhere that the mask I wear isn't to protect me from other people, but is to protect other people from me, in case I am infected.
• Conversely if I'm wandering around the supermarket and there are people there without a mask, then they are potentially infecting me.
• If that scenario is anywhere near true, then I think the government should decree that everyone should wear a mask. But confusingly they haven't made such a statement.
• I suspect it might be political, I mean they haven't got enough masks, so how can they insist everyone wears a mask?
• However if the law was passed, then you would have supermarkets unable to open because they didn't have masks for their employees.
• Supply and demand will operate, if the government decreed that masks should be worn by everyone, then the supermarkets would surely procure masks at whatever price they had to pay.
• They may have to pay 10 - 20 - $100 for a mask.
• This would soon trigger the manufacturer of as many as you want! Every business that had the wherewith all would create them.

 

[The_Doc_Man]

PPE includes masks of the type worn by health-care workers with finer porosity of filtration. Also face shields, respirators...

Besides which, from everything I have read, the "ordinary" surgical masks are ineffective. The greatest benefit to the GENERAL public comes from washing your hands.

 

[deletedT]

@Uncle Gizmo I was going to write a long response to each point you explained above. But unfortunately I'm at work, busy and can't concentrate on what I'm trying to prove.

For now, Imagine you slip and fall off a height. A bridge, a cliff, a tree whatever.
While falling and before hitting the earth, you're seeking to grab anything to save you. A leaf, a rope, a tree branch. If you find a rope, you don't start calculating your weight, gravity and your speed and whether the rope can stop you or not. You simply grab it in the hope it can help you. If it did, you're lucky. If not, you didn't lose anything. You start searching for something else to grab.

A mask is the same for me. Just a chance to save me. I use it in the hope it can help me. If it did I'm lucky. If it didn't help and I get infected, I don't lose anything. It's just like a poker. I bet on the possibilities and probabilities.

 

[ColinEssex]

Anyone remember the film "Omega Man"? Charlton Heston was the last intact survivor in the world (well, America anyway - same thing) except for mutant zombie types causing havoc. Maybe we'll get to that in time.

Col

 

[Jon]

The whole masks fiasco has been a shambles. The messages coming out are confusing and disingenuous. I have talked about masks in several posts of mine, but with so many messages on this topic, it is hard to know a) who to believe, and b) to read them all.

My view is that masks are critical in the fight against this disease for a number of reasons. Let me list some:

• If an infected person wears a mask, you reduce the risk of them passing the disease onto someone else. That lowers the coefficient of the number of people infected by an already infected person. That coefficient is critical to the rate of spread. So wear the damn mask!
• "But I am not infected!" How do you know? There is a 4 to 14 day incubation period where you have no symptoms. While incubating, you can shed the virus and infect others. Get that mask on!
• "But I still don't think I am infected." Around 20% of people are thought to have no symptoms at all, even while infected. During this period, you can infect others. Wear the mask!
• There is evidence to suggest that surgical masks reduce risk to catching the virus during short term use, if used correctly. The n95 respirator types are highly effective, else why do the medics wear them?
• Look at the overall package of measures used in South Korea. They have been super-effective in controlling the virus. Just copy the entire package of measures since you know that collection works. Who cares if an individual measure they employ does not work. We don't have the time to measure everything without the body count piling up. Masks is part of that package.
• New evidence has been presented to WHO this week who are debating the advice on mask use right now.
• MIT has research that shows water droplets can travel 8m (roughly 24 feet) with coughing. That is way further than the 6 foot of social distancing recommended. Are the water droplets going to travel that far if you are wearing a surgical mask? I think not.
• The suggestions on 6 foot of social distancing are weak. What if its windy and you are downwind? Six foot is not enough. You need way more distance. What if you are walking up steps, 6 foot from someone who coughs coming down the steps? The virus will travel further. Factor that in.

Mark my words, in the relatively near future, the WHO will be recommending everybody wears masks, as will the stance of governments in the West. Sometimes I think common sense in a crisis goes out the window.

My UK government is saying masks are not effective. In the same breath, they are saying we need them for health workers but there is a shortage. I'm sorry, but I am not an idiot. Either they work or they don't! They keep saying that they are using the BEST scientific evidence to guide their approach. But in the not too distant future, I would be very surprised if they didn't say this: " We now have the LATEST scientific evidence, and that is that if you have a mask, you should wear it." One month after that, they will be saying, "You must wear a mask if you want to protect yourself."

You could say I have no authority on the topic and the government is surrounded by smart advisors who are experts in the field. But let me give some facts:

• I was banging on about this virus back in late January, asking if this is going to be like the Spanish Flu. Well, it is! Meanwhile, virtually nothing from the government.
• When the UK government talked about the "herd immunity" approach, I calculated 400,000 dead and that their approach is utterly reckless. I was saying they have to shut everything down now. Three days later, the government switched their stance to a gradual shutdown. Imperial College London, who are advising the UK government, predicted 500,000 dead using the herd immunity approach.
• Face masks...well, just wait and see on that one!
• I calculated how rapid the rate of spread of the virus back in February before anyone in the UK was paying any attention. As mentioned on this forum, my local coffee shop employees probably thought I was a little eccentric, talking about the apocalpse. Well, perhaps they have changed their mind now. I expect a free coffee next time I go in!

Since the above contains some valuable facts about face mask usage, I will also copy this to the coronavirus thread.

 

[Jon]

Besides which, from everything I have read, the "ordinary" surgical masks are ineffective.

Ineffective at what? Medics have infected patients wear them to stop them infecting others.

The greatest benefit to the GENERAL public comes from washing your hands.

Most spread is airborne. I saw a model that showed the difference between the washing your hands policy and not having one. The model showed 100K infected without the washing your hands policy, and 75K infected with the policy. So, it helps reduce it somewhat. Apparently, the evidence is relatively weak on viral transmission from touching your face.

 

[The_Doc_Man]

In the other corona virus thread I clarified that a surgical masks stops YOU from spreading to others - which is a good thing - but that it doesn't protect you from others who are less careful. It's a matter of airflow.

Since the general public will not have the most effective type of masks, the next best thing is cleanliness. Removing viruses from your hands works. Don't forget that we have experience with less active diseases such as SARS, H1N1, swine flu... all of which are evolved variants of a flu virus. I am watching various news programs with doctors as guests. The doctors advocate hand-washing. I can only report what I have seen.

 

[deletedT]

@Jon @The_Doc_Man

After watching the video in this post I was surprised what the media is feeding you. Now at least I know where the source of most of what I read here is.

You believe it or not, I'm proud that at least my government is trying to be an example of protection.
A committee of our government for fighting Corona and Prime Minster Abe in front explaining he may address an emergency situation. (photo was shot yesterday)

Edit : You may not notice. They are using the cheapest type of masks to prove even protect-1 is better than no protection at all.

Koike Yuriko, Governor of Tokyo during a press conference :

Tokyo Station:

Tokyo Ginza street:

Shools :

New type of Anti Virus, Anti allergy masks:

 

[deletedT]

@Uncle Gizmo

As I explained I was going to write a long reply. still lack of free time.

• I assume that it is beneficial to wear a mask.
  Why are you hesitating? Wear one.
  
  
• I am confused because there is no legislation in place insisting on the wearing of masks.
  Use your common sense. Covering your mouth for an airborne virus is better on not?
  
  
• I read somewhere that the mask I wear isn't to protect me from other people, but is to protect other people from me, in case I am infected.
  Don't be selfish. Think of others. You don't know you're infected or not. If you can save others why not wearing a mask? Does it harm you?
  
  
• Conversely if I'm wandering around the supermarket and there are people there without a mask, then they are potentially infecting me.
  Sure. Stay away from them. It's airborne disease.
  
  
• If that scenario is anywhere near true, then I think the government should decree that everyone should wear a mask. But confusingly they haven't made such a statement.
  There's no obligation. It's a free world. Government's duty is education, not obligation. It's the difference between us and a communism country. The government states what is right and what is wrong. People listen and choose.
  
  
• I suspect it might be political, I mean they haven't got enough masks, so how can they insist everyone wears a mask?
  Maybe. And maybe not. It may be political or otherwise you chose the idiot one to lead the country.
  
  
• However if the law was passed, then you would have supermarkets unable to open because they didn't have masks for their employees.
  (This is only in case of Japan. No guarantee for others). Each store buys enough masks for its staff because people don't use stores with un-masked staff.
  
  
• Supply and demand will operate, if the government decreed that masks should be worn by everyone, then the supermarkets would surely procure masks at whatever price they had to pay.
  1- There is no SHOULD. It's a free world. Government announces the facts. Either people follow or they don't. They have the freedom to choose either options.
  2- Trump ordered GM, How many it was? 10000? ventilators. Government can order mass-manufacturing of mask. Our government asked (didn't order. It's the difference) for any company who can help. Several swimming dress company stopped their lines and started making masks. We also have men/women underwear companies who have started mass production of masks. A ventilator company has released his copy right and has sent the process of manufacturing ventilators to all main companies.
  
  
  
• They may have to pay 10 - 20 - $100 for a mask.
  How much a man's life is worth? If a mask can save a life, are you afraid of the prices? Yes, here the prices is 3 times or more than regular prices. If $100 can save a life, don't you buy one? Is the government allowing people to die because of the possible change of the prices?
  How much your wife's or your children's live is worth for you?
  
  
• This would soon trigger the manufacturer of as many as you want! Every business that had the wherewith all would create them.
  My level of English doesn't understand what you mean.

 

[Uncle Gizmo]

My level of English doesn't understand what you mean.

I can see that, this is no criticism of you, but most of your comments and assumptions about what I said completely miss the mark.

 

[deletedT]

I can see that, this is no criticism of you, but most of your comments and assumptions about what I said completely miss the mark.

I'm sorry I took your comments wrong. No harm was meant.
I just wanted to show in either case wearing mask is the only remaining option.

 

[The_Doc_Man]

I just wanted to show in either case wearing mask is the only remaining option.

We have masks (wife and I) and will use them - but they are not the only remaining option and in fact, they are not even the primary suggestion.

#1 is "Stay home unless you have to go out." Staying home in isolation during the disease's "power curve" is the best way to avoid it.

#2 is to limit your exposure when out. There is where masks may come into play as well as social distancing.

Let's be honest, it is all about the odds. If we get 1 million cases in the USA, with an estimated population of 333 million people, that is a 0.3% rate of infection. Which means as long as I avoid too many crowds and such, I am 99.7% UNLIKELY to get the virus. Note that I am not downplaying the virus. I'm agreeing with isolation and other protection where possible/available. But panic gets me nowhere. A reasoned, informed approach to avoid hot spots will do me a lot better.

 

[NauticalGent]

Anyone remember the film "Omega Man"? Charlton Heston was the last intact survivor in the world (well, America anyway - same thing) except for mutant zombie types causing havoc. Maybe we'll get to that in time.

Col

Based off the book "I Am Legend". Nof a bad book and not a bad movie either!

 

[deletedT]

We have masks (wife and I) and will use them - but they are not the only remaining option and in fact, they are not even the primary suggestion.

#1 is "Stay home unless you have to go out." Staying home in isolation during the disease's "power curve" is the best way to avoid it.

#2 is to limit your exposure when out. There is where masks may come into play as well as social distancing.

Let's be honest, it is all about the odds. If we get 1 million cases in the USA, with an estimated population of 333 million people, that is a 0.3% rate of infection. Which means as long as I avoid too many crowds and such, I am 99.7% UNLIKELY to get the virus. Note that I am not downplaying the virus. I'm agreeing with isolation and other protection where possible/available. But panic gets me nowhere. A reasoned, informed approach to avoid hot spots will do me a lot better.

Though I accept your points, but how long a society can survive isolation?
Did you think of economical collapse too? Or what is waiting for us after a cure is found?
Did you noticed the isolation in my pictures above of current situation of Tokyo?

Once again I don't want to prove that isolation is not the best. Actually as I said in my post above, If Abe prime minister addresses an emergency situation, Tokyo will be locked down too.
But as of today, with no or very little isolation and only with using mask, sterilizing hands as often as possible and periodically washing mouth, we are at the edge of 3000 infections and 79 deaths. The images above talk for themselves.

One more question if you don't mind. There are a lot of people (me as one of them) who have to work to survive. We have a life and a lot of bills to pay at the end of the month. How long people like me can go to isolation?

Edit: To anybody who reads it, as @The_Doc_Man says, isolation is the best solution. If you can, stay home. Don't go out and be safe. My argument is not to say isolation is not the answer. It's the best possible way to be unharmed. I just want to say I can not afford to stay in isolation for a long period of time.

 

[Uncle Gizmo]

I just wanted to show in either case wearing mask is the only remaining option.

Actually reading back through everything in the fresh Light of Day, I don't think you were that far off in your observations. It's more a case of I don't really know what to think, more like I'm exploring the new situation produced by the corona virus. There's a difference. I agree that masks should be worn. I disagree it should be a choice, because there are always some that will choose not to.

 

[deletedT]

I disagree it should be a choice, because there are always some that will choose not to.

In a private message to a member, I explained that this morning I wrote a message about Law, Obligation and obedience. Before posting it I read it and then I deleted it all. I thought some members may misunderstand my intent and get offended.
Maybe someday I write it again but with different words. You may then see the world through my eyes.

 

[The_Doc_Man]

Unfortunately (for this discussion) but fortunately (for me), I have never been in that situation so have trouble directly relating to the issue. When I worked as a contractor for the U.S. Navy, I was deemed "essential personnel" and was given a badge that would let me go past police checkpoints. Now I am retired and the only place I go is when it is time to hit the grocery for food or cleaning supplies. My income derives from Social Security and an annuity based on my 401k retirement nest egg.

The USA culture is big on law, reasonably big on obedience to law, and at least somewhat aware of obligation. However, some of the liberal types are eroding some of those ideals by trying to make excuses for people who are less than ideal in their behavior. And there are those who have made their fortunes by skirting the law on a thin edge that keeps them out of jail - barely - and lets them keep their ill-gotten gains.

There will ALWAYS be those, in any society, who will seek the loopholes, seek the short-cut, seek the path of least resistance without regard to the spirit of the law.