Ebola in UK

spikepl said:
Ebola is similar to nuclear power in that any (scratch that - ALL) common sense goes out the window, as aptly illustrated by OP.

If ebola was SOOO contagious, a number of African countries would have ceased to exist by now. Rumours of their demises still seem premature.
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It seems we here in the USA already have more deaths caused by Influenza than we had with Ebola. Again, it goes bak to the higher certainty of death if Ebola is caught. One other point. The more people that get Ebola the more likely that it will morph in to an air-born disease and that would be bad. Imagine that if you get the flu, you have a 60-70% chance of dying.

Blade
 
Bladerunner said:
It seems we here in the USA already have more deaths caused by Influenza than we had with Ebola. Again, it goes bak to the higher certainty of death if Ebola is caught. One other point. The more people that get Ebola the more likely that it will morph in to an air-born disease and that would be bad. Imagine that if you get the flu, you have a 60-70% chance of dying.

Blade
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US Ebola Stats:
Contracted in US: 2 (both nurses working with ebola patients)
Diagnosed in US: 4 (including the two above)
Evacuated to US from other countries: 6
Total Cases: 10
Deaths: 2

So 20% fatalities in the US, but 10 cases total is hardly a statistically significant sample. This does, however, indicate that modern health care facilities unsurprisingly greatly increase the chance of survival.

That said, yeah, I'm pretty sure the US had more deaths from flu the first week of flu season than we've had from ebola.

Strangely enough, the mass ebola hysteria "mysteriously" vanished the day after the elections. :rolleyes:
 
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Froth

Could you answer my query please?

Col
 
Frothingslosh said:
US Ebola Stats:
Contracted in US: 2 (both nurses working with ebola patients)
Diagnosed in US: 4 (including the two above)
Evacuated to US from other countries: 6
Total Cases: 10
Deaths: 2

So 20% fatalities in the US, but 10 cases total is hardly a statistically significant sample. This does, however, indicate that modern health care facilities unsurprisingly greatly increase the chance of survival.

That said, yeah, I'm pretty sure the US had more deaths from flu the first week of flu season than we've had from ebola.

Strangely enough, the mass ebola hysteria "mysteriously" vanished the day after the elections. :rolleyes:
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the 50-70% death rate comes from figures put forth by CDC. Official or unofficial I do not know. Again the main threat is the morphing of the virus itself into being airborne which could happen at any time without warning. I have no problem with them bringing in those that have the disease, however, there were a few that became ill after coming back. These supposedly healthy people should have been isolated for 21 days (mandatory). Simple as that. If yo are going over there to help, then put into your schedule a 21 day isolation period before coming home.

Blade
 
My guess would be that the 50-70% number applies to the disease where the epidemic is actually happening, which is ALSO a part of the world with truly abysmal health care. Hell, the fact that it's an epidemic in that are despite a very tame transmission vector is, by itself, an indication that the health services leave a lot to be desired.

I would be totally unsurprised to learn that the 20% we showed in the US is more or less right for areas with a developed health care system. That said, 20% fatality rate is really really rough - you're approaching Spanish Flu lethality at that point.

Also, as per the numbers above, there were precisely two who became ill after returning. To get any meaning out of that, however, we'd have to know how many came back from those areas overall. If it was 2 people out of 6 returning, then that's a huge issue. If it's 2 people out of 60,000 returning, it's basically in the realm of blind luck.

Edit: Also, it's very, very, VERY rare for a disease to spontaneously manifest a new transmission vector, despite what Fox News was telling everyone before the election. That would be like humans suddenly starting to lay eggs. What's far, far more likely is for the disease to develop additional reservoirs. Right now it's thought that bats are the primary reservoir - but if a strain could adapt to rats or, so help us, mosquitoes, then that would be a serious problem.

Also, I find it vastly amusing that the website's spellcheck rejects "unsurprised", "lethality", and "spellcheck".
 
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Frothingslosh said:
Edit: Also, it's very, very, VERY rare for a disease to spontaneously manifest a new transmission vector, despite what Fox News was telling everyone before the election. That would be like humans suddenly starting to lay eggs. What's far, far more likely is for the disease to develop additional reservoirs. Right now it's thought that bats are the primary reservoir - but if a strain could adapt to rats or, so help us, mosquitoes, then that would be a serious problem.
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Having been in the medical field for many years, I can tell you viruses are a breed apart from all others. Morphing from one mode of transmission is as easy as a strain of Bacteria becoming resistant to all major drugs over night. Airborne transmission is a very real possibility with most all viruses. If this were not the case, a simple quarantine would be all that is needed to thwart this disease.

p.s. Fox reported the facts as given to them by CDC. All the other networks decided the masses did not need to know this. I somehow just do not like other people making decisions for me. i.e. nanny government

Blade
 
You're half right on this topic. Viruses can and do mutate constantly, but these mutations are primarily adaptations to immune responses - that is typically what makes antigenic drift a PITA and antigenic shift a nightmare when it happens to common viruses. However, in our entire history of viral study and research, we have NEVER, under any circumstances, seen a human virus change the way it is transmitted (save through intentional and limited modification by a research team). It can become more infectious, but a virus that spreads through body fluid contact simply does NOT suddenly go airborne - except in movies like Outbreak.

We know this in part because researchers have created fully airborne versions of a flu virus (!!!), and even though it can already be spread via aerosol, to allow it to go fully airborne basically required a complete rewrite of the virus' RNA. The truth is that you have a better chance of being killed by a comet landing on your forehead than Ebola does of going airborne.

HERE is an excellent article on the topic.

Also, Fox WARPED the facts provided by the CDC in order to drum up panic for political reasons. Were that not the case, the hysteria would not have vanished the day after the elections. Keep in mind we're talking about a "news" organization that (successfully) argued in court that intentionally lying on-air and presenting it as news is perfectly legal as long as they don't cross over into straight-up slander and libel, and that the FCC cannot block them from doing it or fine them for it. Even minimal fact-checking has shown that at least 50% of what Fox airs is flat-out false.
 
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Frothingslosh,

I would appreciate a reply to my query please.

I can repost it if you can't find it.

Col
 
Frothingslosh said:
You're half right on this topic. Viruses can and do mutate constantly, but these mutations are primarily adaptations to immune responses - that is typically what makes antigenic drift a PITA and antigenic shift a nightmare when it happens to common viruses. However, in our entire history of viral study and research, we have NEVER, under any circumstances, seen a human virus change the way it is transmitted (save through intentional and limited modification by a research team). It can become more infectious, but a virus that spreads through body fluid contact simply does NOT suddenly go airborne - except in movies like Outbreak.

We know this in part because researchers have created fully airborne versions of a flu virus (!!!), and even though it can already be spread via aerosol, to allow it to go fully airborne basically required a complete rewrite of the virus' RNA. The truth is that you have a better chance of being killed by a comet landing on your forehead than Ebola does of going airborne.

HERE is an excellent article on the topic.

Also, Fox WARPED the facts provided by the CDC in order to drum up panic for political reasons. Were that not the case, the hysteria would not have vanished the day after the elections. Keep in mind we're talking about a "news" organization that (successfully) argued in court that intentionally lying on-air and presenting it as news is perfectly legal as long as they don't cross over into straight-up slander and libel, and that the FCC cannot block them from doing it or fine them for it. Even minimal fact-checking has shown that at least 50% of what Fox airs is flat-out false.
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Now how can the warp the facts when the main doctor from the CDC was the one telling the story line. UHmmmmmmm. never mind I don't want to know what the Boy Genius thinks about the CDC doctor.
 
Frothy -I would appreciate an answer to my query. Or have you realised your error.

Col
 
Colin - I would think Frothing is heeding Markk's warning. ("Don't Feed the Trolls")

To me it would seem you are searching for a problem when there is none, which is a common symptom of a Troll (Just as a before answer to your next question).

Let It Go!
 
Hey what better way to put across a point! ;) , Glad you like the song - I'm not too fond of it myself :D
 
ConnorGiles said:
Hey what better way to put across a point! ;) , Glad you like the song - I'm not too fond of it myself :D
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Personally, I rather like the africanized cover by Alex Boyé and the One Note Children's Choir.
 
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