Its Friday again so :Homework for an 18 ish year old.

[stopher]

If these two lines were meant to be one question I would have thought that they were contained in the same paragraph.

I'm inclined to agree. I wonder if the question is deliberately structure to try and trip up students. I'd seen the problem before so I knew where it was going.

How you change "1 in 100" to "1 in 3" is beyond belief.

Without a test taking place then yes a person has 1 in 100 chance of having the disease. But then having taken the test and being told he/she has tested positive, that changes things considerably. Having been told they've tested positive, their chances of having the disease have risen massively. In fact if the test were 100% accurate then his/her chances of having the disease would be 100% i.e. they've gone from 1% to 100%. But the test isn't 100% accurate - some people who don't have the disease also incorrectly test positive. So the actual chances of having the disease having tested positive are much less than 100% - but certainly not 1% (which would only be the case if the test was 100% unreliable). Does that help?

 

[RainLover]

Without a test taking place then yes a person has 1 in 100 chance of having the disease.

You are not prepared to accept that a person has a 1 in 100 chance. Just because someone decides to do a test it does not and cannot change the original fact. Are you say that today a person has a 1 in 100 chance. Then tomorrow we do a test so therefore a person has a different chance. A test cannot change a fact.

Perhaps a better question would have been, given the facts what is the accuracy of the test or something else about the actual test. As I keep repeating which you fail to understand something so simple the chances are 1 in 100. It cannot change because you did a test.

 

[stopher]

You are not prepared to accept that a person has a 1 in 100 chance. Just because someone decides to do a test it does not and cannot change the original fact. Are you say that today a person has a 1 in 100 chance. Then tomorrow we do a test so therefore a person has a different chance. A test cannot change a fact.

So you go to the docs and the doc says, I got your test results back. I'm really sorry but you tested positive. But there's some hope because only a third of those who test positive actually have the disease. But using your argument, you say ... don't worry doc. My odds of having the disease were 1 in 100 before you told me the result. And the fact that you are telling me I've tested positive changes nothing. My odds are still 1 in 100. So I have very little to worry about .

The point is the conditions are quite different to the one you are pointing to. Therefore the odds are different.

Suppose you bet on a horse in a race taking place in three weeks and you get 3-1 odds. However, it rains heavily overnight so the going on the day of the race is heavy and your horse doesn't do well on heavy ground. Thus the odds of your horse winning change - and no doubt reflected in the bookies prices as other punters realise this.

 

[AnthonyGerrard]

So you go to the docs and the doc says, I got your test results back. I'm really sorry but you tested positive. But there's some hope because only a third of those who test positive actually have the disease. But using your argument, you say ... don't worry doc. My odds of having the disease were 1 in 100 before you told me the result. And the fact that you are telling me I've tested positive changes nothing. My odds are still 1 in 100. So I have very little to worry about .

The point is the conditions are quite different to the one you are pointing to. Therefore the odds are different.

Suppose you bet on a horse in a race taking place in three weeks and you get 3-1 odds. However, it rains heavily overnight so the going on the day of the race is heavy and your horse doesn't do well on heavy ground. Thus the odds of your horse winning change - and no doubt reflected in the bookies prices as other punters realise this.

Rather than try to explain it to Rain - maybe it would be better if Rain explained why he thinks all these highly educated , top of their profession medics, statistician, and in fact everyone else bother with these tests when their outcome actually tell us nothing?

The worlds daft! or ....

 

[RainLover]

Anthony

You are simply a low life. I have looked back on your posts and I have noted that whenever you find someone who does not agree with you, you stoop to name calling.

You must have been one of those school kids who pick on the disable simply because they are different to you and that you can.

Your unwillingness to read and try to understand the debate that Chris and I are enjoying is just another example of your disrespect to anyone who might challenge you.

Could you please grow a brain and a personality.

 

[RainLover]

I'm inclined to agree. I wonder if the question is deliberately structure to try and trip up students. I'd seen the problem before so I knew where it was going.

I have taken myself off track from where I originally started.

The original question including the first line is a follows.

"A person randomly chosen is subjected to the test. They get the result "positive".

But what is the probability they actually have fibronobiosis? "

The issue I am looking at is the use of the word But.

But, means "On the contrary", "Except", "Save", "Otherwise" among other things.

So in closing let me ask this question.

Does the use of the word "But" actually cause the test to be ignored and not form part of the solution.

 

[AnthonyGerrard]

Anthony

You are simply a low life. I have looked back on your posts and I have noted that whenever you find someone who does not agree with you, you stoop to name calling.

You must have been one of those school kids who pick on the disable simply because they are different to you and that you can.

Your unwillingness to read and try to understand the debate that Chris and I are enjoying is just another example of your disrespect to anyone who might challenge you.

Could you please grow a brain and a personality.

Erm you are teh one argueing you have it right (over two threads) whilst the rest of the world are wrong?


I merely suggested - you talk us through your working out - cos you arent really taking in anything everyone tries to explain to you. Maybe you convince yourself that the rest of the world has it right and maybe just maybe your logic is off.

Rather than entertain that posibility and give it a go - and try to understand this thread - you respond with you lastest post, which is more than a little lacking in self awareness, and manners.

Think dont fight. So far all you posts have been fighting your point of view - not thinking about others.

 

[AnthonyGerrard]

I have taken myself off track from where I originally started.

The original question including the first line is a follows.

"A person randomly chosen is subjected to the test. They get the result "positive".

But what is the probability they actually have fibronobiosis? "

The issue I am looking at is the use of the word But.

But, means "On the contrary", "Except", "Save", "Otherwise" among other things.

So in closing let me ask this question.

Does the use of the word "But" actually cause the test to be ignored and not form part of the solution.

Simple answer: NO!

Long answer:

Even if this was the issue - it was clarified by me in subsequent posts what the question was getting at.

Groundrush readily accepted the question when clarified (if it wast clear originally, and so did everyone else)

Frankly your wriggling and being deceiptful in your arguement just to argue your point. You move from the wording , to totally questioning the logic and back on whim to continue you supoosed point. Much like your m.o. in teh pronoun thread. Whether it from a genuine pig headedness that has you beleiveing you are right or as a wum I cant tell. What is historically clear is that you are going to argue the toss continually, in any way that meets your purpose. However wrong and disrespecful you get in the process.

I am a little annoyed - cos its spoiling everyone elses possible enjoyment of little quiz problems, having someone who just clearly likes speaking a lot, more than thinking a little.

I refer you to you own last post to me. Try heeding you own words, cos you sure arn't interested in heeding any one elses , and try finding the merits in what people say whether it be Chris, Brian anyone or me, rather than trawling history to find fault!


**Bullying disabled kids*** - really listen to yourself!

 

[RainLover]

So if you pose a question to which you don't like the answer, then you can change the question to suit your self.

Is this another way of saying that I am right and you are a sook who can't handle been told that you are wrong.

Here is your own words that show you won't accept what you write because it shows you are wrong.

Simple answer: NO!

Long answer:

Even if this was the issue - it was clarified by me in subsequent posts what the question was getting at.

You changed the question. That is worse than cheating.

 

[AnthonyGerrard]

So if you pose a question to which you don't like the answer, then you can change the question to suit your self.

Is this another way of saying that I am right and you are a sook who can't handle been told that you are wrong.

Here is your own words that show you won't accept what you write because it shows you are wrong.



You changed the question. That is worse than cheating.

Help me out someone.

As with much of what you say its so evidently not the case.

I clarified the question , and even congratulated others on the correct answer - and did both hours and hours before you even responded?!?!

I didnt change it or cheat or bully disabled kids and the answer is 1/3?

 

[RainLover]

Anthony

I believe that the answer to the original question as asked by you is what I have said from the beginning. 1 in 100.

The answer to a different question which is an amendment of the original is most likely 1 in 3. I have no reason to doubt Chris's Math.

I do mistrust any and every thing posted by you as you will not admit what you wrote even though it is in black and white.

 

[AnthonyGerrard]

Anthony

I believe that the answer to the original question as asked by you is what I have said from the beginning. 1 in 100.

The answer to a different question which is an amendment of the original is most likely 1 in 3. I have no reason to doubt Chris's Math.

I do mistrust any and every thing posted by you as you will not admit what you wrote even though it is in black and white.

I stand by the integrity of the question, the answer, and myself. I havent lied, or bullied disabled kids, or cheated or anything else.

Your attitude throughout stinks.

 

[RainLover]

I can see that you would.

I have just been reading another post in which you star.

Wonderful stuff.

 

[Brianwarnock]

Rain if you are going to complain about Anthony's post, complain about his written English. It has already been pointed out to, and accepted by, him that the last two sentences should be in one paragraph. He starts the last with a conjunction "but" , however the pronoun they still refers back to the last noun, I.e. the person chosen at random.
His question correctly written would be as below, however you are the only poster who refuses to understand his original.

A person randomly chosen is subjected to the test. They get the result "positive", but what is the probability they actually have fibronobiosis?

Brian

 

[AnthonyGerrard]

Rain if you are going to complain about Anthony's post, complain about his written English. It has already been pointed out to, and accepted by, him that the last two sentences should be in one paragraph. He starts the last with a conjunction "but" , however the pronoun they still refers back to the last noun, I.e. the person chosen at random.
His question correctly written would be as below, however you are the only poster who refuses to understand his original.



Brian

Thankyou Brian.

 

[Vassago]

Stop arguing semantics and feeding the trolls. You'll never get anywhere.

The only accepted meaning by what Anthony meant should be exactly what he said. Can anyone else really believe he meant something else?

 

[kevlray]

That's outrageous, somebody could have won this argument based on a dangling participial.

Are we allowed to talk about dangling participials on this forum.

 

[RainLover]

Stop arguing semantics and feeding the trolls. You'll never get anywhere.

The only accepted meaning by what Anthony meant should be exactly what he said. Can anyone else really believe he meant something else?

I certainly don't believe something else. What I can't understand is why do so many want to change the question. The different versions of the original question is amazing.

These people need to realise that you can't change the question to suit your self.

Even the OP hasn't gone back and edited the question.

So folks read the question as posted

 

[Brianwarnock]

Everybody is wrong but Rain!

The OP. did not need to edit his original post as others understood it in its original form, my editing consisted of changing a full stop to a comma in the vain hope that you would understand things better.
I wonder sometimes if you actually read posts or merely skim them, or maybe English is not your first language.

Seriously you've disappointed me Rain as you appear to be stubborn for the sake of it, I thought that you were better than that.

Brian

 

[RainLover]

Brian

You can call me anything you like. You know what they say, sticks and stones etc

However you should really take the time to appreciate the facts and not merely agree with the masses in order to earn brownie points.

__________________________________________________________

Someone has asked a question.

See post number one.

I answered that question.

There has been no alteration so the original question which still stands.

If the question was to be altered then it would be reasonable to see some notice like;

" Opps folks I made a mistake. The question should read, ...........etc"

Should I be the one required to sift through all the posts just in case the OP decided to change the question.

I don't think so.

Brian

I would also like to say that it is not the math that is under dispute.

It is my answer to the original question that most other people have a problem with.

Not one of these people can say that my Math is wrong.

What they do say is that if you change the question you get a different answer.

I have answered the question as asked.

Please tell me what I have said in this reply to you that is wrong.