Whats important

I will have to take my "leave" from this discussion - family business. I would urge you Jon to focus on what is important - don't get tied up in knots over the 97% figure, don't spout the extreme stuff like "just like in North Korea" - come on - get real. You are pretending/ deluding yourself and it does you no favours. Skeptics / deniers - if their claims are debunked, but they keep spouting the rubbish like "the pause", then do they not become the radicals, crying poor because they cannot get funding for stuff after what they have spouted is bunk?

Did you read the item suggested?
 
@GaP42 - We can focus on what is important very easily.

The first thing that is important is the sniff test. See if something stinks.

The infamous "Mann hockey-stick graph" was controversial in its time. But recently it was revealed that Mann has lost his data and cannot regenerate an updated version for this year. Something that might have been the most important scientific finding in ecology in decades... and he lost his data. As a Ph.D. (chemist) myself, I can tell you that research protocol in the computer age is that you make secure copies of your raw data. You make backups of the backups. You get a printer and paper and ink and you print out your data and seal it in a safe-deposit box. The method used to generate the last part of the hockey stick was questionable and now we can't even put it under modern scrutiny. This STINKS of a cover-up. Particularly with various kinds of contradictory evidence having arisen to show that the "substitution" that occurred to make the "bend" in the hockey stick might have been questionable. Hard to be sure any more because he LOST HIS F'ing DATA! As a scientist, I am more upset by that than I am for the original conclusions.

It is perhaps hard for you to accept, but this "climate change furor" is a "liberal approach" to the problem of wealth redistribution. You won't LET yourself see that. I am as human as the next person, but my Ph.D. studies taught me how to identify personal vs. other concerns in analyzing a problem. I learned to disassociate myself from any feelings I might have had in a particular problem. I learned how to tell whether I had an improper expectation and I learned how to split myself away from such expectations. I do not claim absolutely that the "climate change" furor is totally political - but I can detect a strong influence of politics playing an overly significant and interfering part in the discussion. And that kind of interference CANNOT occur for scientific reasons, but surely can occur for political reasons.

The next thing that is important is the Zen approach - first, do we have a problem; second, if so then what do we do about it; third, what if we can't do anything?

I will agree that the climate is changing. Ho-hum, not news. Tree-ring evidence and geologic fossil evidence and a few other obscure methods have already told us that much. Changes have occurred over the last several hundred thousand years. The "97% consensus," however, included folks who said "Human activity MIGHT have contributed to the effect" and "A contribution from human activity cannot be ruled out." Yeah, I'd say that those tenuous statements contribute to a strong consensus. So even though that 97% number is shaky, for argument's sake let's assume it was right. So what is next? The USA is doing its best to reduce emissions. Other countries are also trying.

But let's ask the question, "WHY did the emissions increase in the first place a hundred years ago or so?" They increased because of increased activities to improve our standard and style of living. Why? Because it takes energy applied to construction and production activities to do more than what you WERE doing before then. And we had an increasing population who needed places to live and work.

Why does the planet take more energy now than it did 100 years ago? Because we have more people now living on the planet who desperately want to improve THEIR standards of living as well. They see our standard of living and (no "duh" here) want it for themselves. Why do immigrants flock to the USA? Standard of living, I guess. So... how do less advanced nations gain more energy to apply to such improvements? Burning fossil fuels. Well, gee, it's what we've done for millennia - wood, coal, now oil... gotta love them fossil fuels.

Well, we have identified the culprits right there... all those uppity poverty-stricken peasants who want to live better. Now let's tell all those emerging nations that they will have to do without that kind of improvement because it is poisoning the planet. Oh, and by the way, when you say that, remember (a) there are lots of such countries and (b) they have a vote in the U.N. in case anyone decides they are doing something you don't like.

You want to REALLY know why we have increased CO2 in the air? All of those religions that still cling to "go forth and multiply." We have too many people on the planet; people who are sick and tired of living in poverty. I'll leave it to YOU to tell them to stay there in their mud-floored huts with no clean water for cooking or sanitation. But until you can convince them of how evil they are being by contributing to climate change, you should expect them to continue to burn the heck out of fossil fuels.

So what's next, chief?
 
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I will have to take my "leave" from this discussion - family business. I would urge you Jon to focus on what is important - don't get tied up in knots over the 97% figure, don't spout the extreme stuff like "just like in North Korea" - come on - get real. You are pretending/ deluding yourself and it does you no favours. Skeptics / deniers - if their claims are debunked, but they keep spouting the rubbish like "the pause", then do they not become the radicals, crying poor because they cannot get funding for stuff after what they have spouted is bunk?

Did you read the item suggested?
OK, I see there is no argument above. I know it can be difficult to argue against points that hit home. You still haven't gotten the grant thing, despite explaining it to you. Again, when the grant money is provided for those who agree that climate change is mostly man-made, none of that money goes to the alternative view. It has nothing to do with the validity of the alternative view, but the political view of those providing it.

I read some of it, but I've already seen countless videos and articles from both sides. To me, it appears you don't really understand the arguments from the contrarian view, or discount them because you don't like them.

The majority view called it "the pause", not the skeptics. Do a little bit more research!

As for the 97% figure, you do not seem to have a decent explanation for how this discredits those who use it. I think you've got yourself tied up in knots over it as you struggle to give a response, so you deflect. What is important is to focus on is credibility, and the 97% figure doesn't help.

I know you like Greta and her exceedingly large carbon footprint, but not all of us want to be like her.
 
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I'll leave it to YOU to tell them to stay there in their mud-floored huts with no clean water for cooking or sanitation. But until you can convince them of how evil they are being by contributing to climate change, you should expect them to continue to burn the heck out of fossil fuels.
Doc, its a classic case of Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs. When you already have your own immediate safety, next shelter, and third social stuff sorted, you can start to think about other things like future climate change. But when you are motivated by where your next meal will come from, climate change is rather redundant. And you can't change millions of years of DNA programming that lead to how we are motivated.

But I know you understand that anyway, just wanted to state it for others.

Maslow%27s_Hierarchy_of_Needs.svg
 
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Yes, absolutely DO know about Maslow's pyramid.
 
This is my problem exactly. Once you insist on suppressing opposing views, you've lost the moral high ground as well as any credibility your argument might hold. If you review multiple opinions, you will find those that think that a small increase in CO2 (WE but NOT China and India, have gone a long way toward reducing our carbon emissions) is actually good for humans because it increases the ability to grow food crops. Stupid suggestions like spreading "stuff" in the upper atmosphere to block the sun would have huge negative consequences. We have actual, recent history to confirm this from several huge volcanic eruptions that have taken place in the past 200 years. Putting an umbrella over the earth to lower the temperature will kill millions because of the damage done to food crops. This is a non-starter. We don't need a flawed model when we have empirical evidence.

In my lifetime, the US has made huge strides in reducing pollution as well as carbon emissions. When was the last time the Monongahela caught fire;) When I drive in a car, the highways and city streets are no longer littered with trash. The sky over LA is blue (except when it is overcast) rather than green. My only trip to LA was in the 70's and the sky was a very sickly shade of green. In the same timeframe, I took a trip to Washington, DC. You could almost walk on the water in the Tidal Basin it was so polluted. If you walked the streets of Manhattan for an hour and then blew your nose, you would see soot on the tissue. You couldn't swim in the Hudson or any other major river in the country.
We could reduce emissions even further and faster if we could use nuclear power for energy. Solar and wind are not ready for prime time. They take too much space and have to be built too far away from population areas. Battery storage isn't viable so electricity needs to be generated as it is consumed and the sun doesn't shine at night or when it is overcast. Forcing people to use electric vehicles is dumb given the state of our electric grid. Did you notice the warnings that happen in the summer about NOT charging your car because it would cause brownouts????? I guess you can just stay home. Using electric buses in cities is a good idea. Cars, trucks, not so much. Tanks used for warfare - absolutely idiotic. So stupid there isn't even any discussion. I'm sure the Chinese are laughing hysterically at us for this idea along with the worries about flight suits for pregnant women.


Rather than believing other people's interpretations of what Trump says, perhaps, you might consider actually listening to the whole speech so the words have some context. Then you can apologize for even believing he recommended such a stupid thing. Most of what you think you know about Trump, you heard from people who hate him and distort every single thing he says. His rally speeches are boring and repetitive (he's not the great speaker he fancies himself to be) so I rarely watch them but his prepared speeches are always much more interesting.

My opinions - not that anyone should care -
1. Earth's climate is in constant flux.
2. Weather does not = climate
3. Pollution does not = climate
4. People create too much waste. Do you use single serve water bottles at home? Do you use plastic wrap or plastic/glass containers to store food? Do you use rolls of paper towels when you are cleaning or washable cloth rags? Do you use pre packaged coffee pods in your Keurig or do you use loose coffee in refillable containers? We can ALL reduce our carbon footprint - especially our plastic waste.
5. We should not build permanent structures on barrier islands. Leave them for temporary structures and recreation.
6. We should use the most efficient power generation method our technology will support - nuclear.
7. We should power fleet vehicles with natural gas rather than diesel or gasoline. So city trucks, UPS, etc. should use electric where feasible, otherwise natural gas. NYC has already figured out that electric doesn't work for snow plows - which are just garbage trucks with plows attached.
8. Taking away our gas stoves and gas water heaters is beyond the pale. light bulbs were bad enough.
9. Climate change does not cause forest fires. People should not be building in areas subject to forest fires or flooding for that matter. It is simply hubris to believe that we control nature.
10. Forest fires are caused by lightning or human carelessness. In California, if the tree-huggers would allow annual controlled burns near populated areas, the out of control dangerous fires would be significantly less frequent.
11. Climate change does not cause hurricanes or any other weather.
12. If the climate models cannot accurately predict the path of a tropical storm, how do you expect them to predict actual climate change? Let us not forget the UK model that sent the world into a tizzy and terrified half the population when it predicted a 10% mortality rate for COVID. Did I miss the retraction and apology when the actual rate turned out to be less than that of a bad seasonal flu? OOPS. Sorry you lost your job. Sorry, your business was destroyed and you were bankrupted. Sorry your kids lost two years of education and are now terrified of strangers.
13. Dense urban development causes local "weather". Heat and humidity for example. It would be a good thing is the roofs of buildings could be covered with grass and trees to cure some of the ill effects of all that asphalt.
8. There are no plans to take away gas stoves.
9. But drought caused by climate change creates kindling and thus increases odds of massive fires.
11. As a former USAF weather man I strate: hurricanes feed off warm water, the hotter the water the more violent the storm. The heat from the hot water rises, the rotation of the earth (coriolis effect) causes it to rotate.. When I worked in the severe weather warning center is KC, we had a discussion regarding a comment by someone the we should drop an A bomb into the eye and blow it apart. However, the chief forecaster, LtCol Robert C. Miller opined that the bomb would just create a hurricane of cosmic proportions. And, due to climate change the oceans are getting hotter.
12. Long range forecasting for atmosphere is difficult, but improving. There are a lot of data points to be considered. It used to take 12 hours to calculate the Rate of Change in Vorticity. Now they can do it in less than 10 seconds.
 
12. You can't forecast the weather. How can you forecast "climate change"?

Oh, Pat... that's so EASY. Just forecast how much money you want to relocate to other countries.
 
A brief return - Jon - I said I have family business to attend to - a funeral is good reason to tke leave and no concession is made to your false claims. Taking furth leave from this now!
 
A brief return - Jon - I said I have family business to attend to - a funeral is good reason to tke leave and no concession is made to your false claims. Taking furth leave from this now!
I have nothing to add. I will leave you with my false claims.
 
@GaP42 - We can focus on what is important very easily.

The first thing that is important is the sniff test. See if something stinks.

The infamous "Mann hockey-stick graph" was controversial in its time. But recently it was revealed that Mann has lost his data and cannot regenerate an updated version for this year. Something that might have been the most important scientific finding in ecology in decades... and he lost his data. As a Ph.D. (chemist) myself, I can tell you that research protocol in the computer age is that you make secure copies of your raw data. You make backups of the backups. You get a printer and paper and ink and you print out your data and seal it in a safe-deposit box. The method used to generate the last part of the hockey stick was questionable and now we can't even put it under modern scrutiny. This STINKS of a cover-up. Particularly with various kinds of contradictory evidence having arisen to show that the "substitution" that occurred to make the "bend" in the hockey stick might have been questionable. Hard to be sure any more because he LOST HIS F'ing DATA! As a scientist, I am more upset by that than I am for the original conclusions.

It is perhaps hard for you to accept, but this "climate change furor" is a "liberal approach" to the problem of wealth redistribution. You won't LET yourself see that. I am as human as the next person, but my Ph.D. studies taught me how to identify personal vs. other concerns in analyzing a problem. I learned to disassociate myself from any feelings I might have had in a particular problem. I learned how to tell whether I had an improper expectation and I learned how to split myself away from such expectations. I do not claim absolutely that the "climate change" furor is totally political - but I can detect a strong influence of politics playing an overly significant and interfering part in the discussion. And that kind of interference CANNOT occur for scientific reasons, but surely can occur for political reasons.

The next thing that is important is the Zen approach - first, do we have a problem; second, if so then what do we do about it; third, what if we can't do anything?

I will agree that the climate is changing. Ho-hum, not news. Tree-ring evidence and geologic fossil evidence and a few other obscure methods have already told us that much. Changes have occurred over the last several hundred thousand years. The "97% consensus," however, included folks who said "Human activity MIGHT have contributed to the effect" and "A contribution from human activity cannot be ruled out." Yeah, I'd say that those tenuous statements contribute to a strong consensus. So even though that 97% number is shaky, for argument's sake let's assume it was right. So what is next? The USA is doing its best to reduce emissions. Other countries are also trying.

But let's ask the question, "WHY did the emissions increase in the first place a hundred years ago or so?" They increased because of increased activities to improve our standard and style of living. Why? Because it takes energy applied to construction and production activities to do more than what you WERE doing before then. And we had an increasing population who needed places to live and work.

Why does the planet take more energy now than it did 100 years ago? Because we have more people now living on the planet who desperately want to improve THEIR standards of living as well. They see our standard of living and (no "duh" here) want it for themselves. Why do immigrants flock to the USA? Standard of living, I guess. So... how do less advanced nations gain more energy to apply to such improvements? Burning fossil fuels. Well, gee, it's what we've done for millennia - wood, coal, now oil... gotta love them fossil fuels.

Well, we have identified the culprits right there... all those uppity poverty-stricken peasants who want to live better. Now let's tell all those emerging nations that they will have to do without that kind of improvement because it is poisoning the planet. Oh, and by the way, when you say that, remember (a) there are lots of such countries and (b) they have a vote in the U.N. in case anyone decides they are doing something you don't like.

You want to REALLY know why we have increased CO2 in the air? All of those religions that still cling to "go forth and multiply." We have too many people on the planet; people who are sick and tired of living in poverty. I'll leave it to YOU to tell them to stay there in their mud-floored huts with no clean water for cooking or sanitation. But until you can convince them of how evil they are being by contributing to climate change, you should expect them to continue to burn the heck out of fossil fuels.

So what's next, chief?
The last paragraph was spot on, Doc.
 

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