Coronavirus - are we all doomed? (1 Viewer)

[Jon]

I am trying to get my head around the implications. Let's say only 10% of cases get reported. In the Italian example, the chart growth rate is still what it is. It shows the number of deaths per reported cases. Regarding the math, does having a large number of unreported cases actually slow down the chart shown already? My initial feelings are that it doesn't, but I am open to being proven wrong here as I am going by gut intuition rather than mathematical fact.

 

[Uncle Gizmo]

Regarding the "Diamond Princess" cruise ship, there were 706 cases with 6 Deaths. Now that's getting on for 10%. I'm assuming that's because the passengers were older people and the chance of dying increases with age.

 

[Uncle Gizmo]

Regarding the "Diamond Princess" cruise ship,

Looking on the bright side, you could probably get a good deal on a cruise at the moment....

 

[The_Doc_Man]

Hate to break it to you but ... 6/706 is less than 1%. Something like about 0.8% (rounded).

 

[Uncle Gizmo]

Hate to break it to you but ... 6/706 is less than 1%. Something like about 0.8% (rounded).

Oops! I was expecting 5% and got my decimal point in the wrong place!

 

[Jon]

Today's stats say there is a 3.2% death rate, but it appears higher because, like The Doc says, many people with mild symptoms don't report it.

 

[Jon]

From the chart I posted about Italy, it was 917 cases of coronarivus 5 days ago. It is now 2,500 today. That is similar to my doubling every 4 days prediction.

Lets play with some maths:

Today, 4th of March: 2,500
8th: 5,000
12th: 10,000
16th: 20,000
20th: 40,000
24th: 80,000
28th: 160,000
1st April: 320,000

One month after that? 41M

The above is from my post in another thread, but it is relevant here so I have duplicated it.

 

[kevlray]

Of course the last time I checked. It looks like we are going to die sooner or later. There is always something out there to get you (disease, accidents, bad drivers, stupidity).

 

[Jon]

Italy had 2,313 new cases today and 196 new deaths. Shocking really.

Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[The_Doc_Man]

Doomed? Don't know that. However, the corona virus is now officially a pandemic according the World Health Organization as of a newscast I saw this morning (Wed., 3/11/2020) with over 121,000 confirmed cases and over 4,300 deaths world wide.

 

[moke123]

I live in a very rural area. We had our first case announced on Saturday. We have about 10 confirmed cases as of today. Whats next week gonna be like?
I was walking down the street at lunch today and I saw someone pick up a cigarette butt off the sidewalk and light it up. Noting that, I'd say we're doomed.
This is getting real.

 

[vba_php]

oh come on Jon. I think this is a paranoia thread. I've seen countless numbers of photos posted on facebook and other pages that show people hoarding products because the end of the world is here. LOL. not even close. there's a long way to go yet.

 

[The_Doc_Man]

Along the line of "hoarding" - my stepson is a UPS delivery driver. Yesterday he delivered an Amazon order consisting of four CASES of toilet paper rolls - to one address. Now that is someone who gives a crap about staying home until it all blows over.

BTW - yes I made a little joke - but the delivery really happened.

 

[kevlray]

Jon: As far as the Italian outbreak. Apparently 25% of the population is over 65. And the medical facilities could have been overwhelmed by the number of cases (I read about it yesterday).

 

[vba_php]

Now that is someone who gives a crap about staying home until it all blows over.

that's the best d.a.m.n thing I've ever seen you post, Richard! God bless you, sir.

 

[Jon]

People underestimate the effect of exponential increases. Just do the maths. It is very simple to do. Currently, the virus is spreading at a rate where the new infected daily totals are doubling every 4 days. So if in the UK we have 100 new cases today, in 4 days we will have 200 new cases per day, then 4 days after that 400 new cases per day.

Starting at 100 new cases per day, if the trend continues, that is about 25K new cases per day in one months time. One month after that? 6.4M caes per day.

Now anybody can say it is hyped or exaggerated. But if you do the maths you will realise its just because you haven't thought ahead.

 

[vba_php]

I think you're living in the movie CONTAGION, Jon. Why don't you move to hollywood and try your hand there instead of delving into real estate? LOL

 

[Jon]

There is something on Netflix at the moment about viruses and pandemics. Might watch that just to scare the hell out of myself.

 

[vba_php]

scare the hell out of myself.

you're already scaring the hell out of new members that are reading this thread. funny how the word HELL is not sensored here.

 

[Jon]

I think we should scare everybody into isolation. Then 14 days later the entire virus will go kaput!