I have copied my post from another thread because it is coronavirus related and full of what I consider to be important information. Here it is...
The whole masks fiasco has been a shambles. The messages coming out are confusing and disingenuous. I have talked about masks in several posts of mine, but with so many messages on this topic, it is hard to know a) who to believe, and b) to read them all.
My view is that masks are critical in the fight against this disease for a number of reasons. Let me list some:
- If an infected person wears a mask, you reduce the risk of them passing the disease onto someone else. That lowers the coefficient of the number of people infected by an already infected person. That coefficient is critical to the rate of spread. So wear the damn mask!
- "But I am not infected!" How do you know? There is a 4 to 14 day incubation period where you have no symptoms. While incubating, you can shed the virus and infect others. Get that mask on!
- "But I still don't think I am infected." Around 20% of people are thought to have no symptoms at all, even while infected. During this period, you can infect others. Wear the mask!
- There is evidence to suggest that surgical masks reduce risk to catching the virus during short term use, if used correctly. The n95 respirator types are highly effective, else why do the medics wear them?
- Look at the overall package of measures used in South Korea. They have been super-effective in controlling the virus. Just copy the entire package of measures since you know that collection works. Who cares if an individual measure they employ does not work. We don't have the time to measure everything without the body count piling up. Masks is part of that package.
- New evidence has been presented to WHO this week who are debating the advice on mask use right now.
- MIT has research that shows water droplets can travel 8m (roughly 24 feet) with coughing. That is way further than the 6 foot of social distancing recommended. Are the water droplets going to travel that far if you are wearing a surgical mask? I think not.
- The suggestions on 6 foot of social distancing are weak. What if its windy and you are downwind? Six foot is not enough. You need way more distance. What if you are walking up steps, 6 foot from someone who coughs coming down the steps? The virus will travel further. Factor that in.
Mark my words, in the relatively near future, the WHO will be recommending everybody wears masks, as will the stance of governments in the West. Sometimes I think common sense in a crisis goes out the window.
My UK government is saying masks are not effective. In the same breath, they are saying we need them for health workers but there is a shortage. I'm sorry, but I am not an idiot. Either they work or they don't! They keep saying that they are using the BEST scientific evidence to guide their approach. But in the not too distant future, I would be very surprised if they didn't say this: " We now have the LATEST scientific evidence, and that is that if you have a mask, you should wear it." One month after that, they will be saying, "You must wear a mask if you want to protect yourself."
You could say I have no authority on the topic and the government is surrounded by smart advisors who are experts in the field. But let me give some facts:
- I was banging on about this virus back in late January, asking if this is going to be like the Spanish Flu. Well, it is! Meanwhile, virtually nothing from the government.
- When the UK government talked about the "herd immunity" approach, I calculated 400,000 dead and that their approach is utterly reckless. I was saying they have to shut everything down now. Three days later, the government switched their stance to a gradual shutdown. Imperial College London, who are advising the UK government, predicted 500,000 dead using the herd immunity approach.
- Face masks...well, just wait and see on that one!
- I calculated how rapid the rate of spread of the virus back in February before anyone in the UK was paying any attention. As mentioned on this forum, my local coffee shop employees probably thought I was a little eccentric, talking about the apocalpse. Well, perhaps they have changed their mind now. I expect a free coffee next time I go in!
