The Trump Slump

[RogerCooper]

As the year comes to end, let's take a look at Trump's achievement of generating a recession single-handedly. Inflation up and employment down. These were predictable results of his policies.

He generated inflation

1. By increasing tariffs
2. By increasing the deficit
3. By pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates
4. By stopping immigration

Numbers 1 and 4 also reduce the size of the economy.

 

[AccessBlaster]

Calling this a recession overstates the case. Inflation has not accelerated during the year; it has remained roughly flat around 3 percent. The S&P 500 is up double digits year to date, which is not what recessions typically look like. Employment growth has slowed, but the labor market remains historically tight rather than collapsing. Gas prices are down, even in California. I realize we’re both fudging slightly, but I prefer the more optimistic approach.

 

[Steve R.]

@RogerCooper: This seems to be more of a relapse into Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) than a valid debate topic. The most obvious point: What recession????. No evidence has been provided to establish that the US is in a recession.

1. The jury is out on the effects of tariffs on the economy.
2. Yes, the deficit is increasing; but what is new?
3. What is your point concerning pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates?
4. On immigration, the Biden administration opened the US border to all. This has had severe adverse impacts on US culture and the US economy. One of the worst aspects, the illegal immigrants were let in without due process, yet the attempts to deport them have been obstructed under the guise of due process. That makes the whole concept of due process a legal absurdity. The Biden administration purposely avoided enforcing immigration laws. A lawless corrupt administration.

 

[The_Doc_Man]

{Moderator hat ON}
Be warned: Since this is a political post and such posts often become unruly, please be VERY careful about where you take this. The thread WILL be monitored to prevent a repetition of our recent problem that led to the shut down the Politics & Current Events forum.
{Moderator hat OFF}

 

[AngelSpeaks]

This political post should be shutdown.

 

[MarkK]

The most obvious point: What recession????. No evidence has been provided to establish that the US is in a recession.

Trump promised winning, so much winning. We were going to get tired of winning, remember?
If you don't agree he has under-delivered, then talk to your doctor. You might be suffering from "Lowering The Bar Derangement Syndrome."

 

[Steve R.]

@MarkK: Sigh. This wasn't a topic posted for a valid debate. So I will decline to comment further.

This political post should be shutdown.

 

[NauticalGent]

This political post should be shutdown.

I disagree Angel, respectfully. We should always be willing to have a conversation if it can be kept civil and cerebral.

 

[The_Doc_Man]

We should always be willing to have a conversation if it can be kept civil and cerebral.

I can't argue with that sentiment but I can tell you that there is adequate reason to encourage caution. I learned a business rule a long time ago that should be applied here: Whatever you were going to post, don't post version 1.0 of whatever you wrote. Edit yourself first. Post #1 of anything that was a response to a touchy subject will almost always be harsher than it needed to be.

Not spoken as moderator, but rather as a member whose personal experiences with hasty posts were not often pleasant.

 

[NauticalGent]

can tell you that there is adequate reason to encourage caution.

Given our recent history, amen, amen and amen...

 

[Joan Wild]

Definition of a recession: "two consecutive quarters of shrinkage in gross domestic product (GDP)". I have no idea if that is the case in the U.S.

 

[RogerCooper]

@RogerCooper: This seems to be more of a relapse into Trump Derangement Syndrome (TDS) than a valid debate topic. The most obvious point: What recession????. No evidence has been provided to establish that the US is in a recession.

1. The jury is out on the effects of tariffs on the economy.
2. Yes, the deficit is increasing; but what is new?
3. What is your point concerning pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates?
4. On immigration, the Biden administration opened the US border to all. This has had severe adverse impacts on US culture and the US economy. One of the worst aspects, the illegal immigrants were let in without due process, yet the attempts to deport them have been obstructed under the guise of due process. That makes the whole concept of due process a legal absurdity. The Biden administration purposely avoided enforcing immigration laws. A lawless corrupt administration.

1. All reputable economists oppose tariffs. As was noted long ago, the protectionist does to his own country what an enemy does in time of war. But the worst effect is that Trump undermined the US Dollar as the dominant currency of international trade. It used to be that 80% of all international trade outside of Europe was conducted in US dollars. This demand for US dollars financed our deficits and improved out standard of living.

2. Trump's deficit is just as inflationary as Biden's deficit. But the deficit went down under Biden as COVID-related stimulus ended.

3. Lower interest rates means more inflation. That is the tradeoff.

4. Deporting workers shrinks the economy. It doesn't matter whether the workers are legal or illegal.

 

[RogerCooper]

Definition of a recession: "two consecutive quarters of shrinkage in gross domestic product (GDP)". I have no idea if that is the case in the U.S.

Not yet. Also, slow growth will increase unemployment even without meeting the technical definition used by economists for a recession.

The no-hire, no-fire economy of 2025 is changing towards higher unemployment.

 

[RogerCooper]

Calling this a recession overstates the case. Inflation has not accelerated during the year; it has remained roughly flat around 3 percent. The S&P 500 is up double digits year to date, which is not what recessions typically look like. Employment growth has slowed, but the labor market remains historically tight rather than collapsing. Gas prices are down, even in California. I realize we’re both fudging slightly, but I prefer the more optimistic approach.

I would not put too much faith in the stock market. Non-AI stocks have not been doing so well, while AI stocks are at absurdly high prices. I remember 1999.

 

[The_Doc_Man]

Deporting workers shrinks the economy. It doesn't matter whether the workers are legal or illegal.

This statement is made with blinders on. You are racing down the horse track and not seeing things peripheral to YOUR goal. It matters TO ME that we have people living here whose allegiance cannot be trusted. They think only of themselves and don't care that they are here illegally. How many illegal Islamic immigrants have perpetrated attacks? How many people have tried (such as in Michigan) to subvert USA courts by establishing Sharia courts? Which are illegal under U.S. law, due to the Supremacy clause.

All reputable economists oppose tariffs.

Do you know Murphy's Law of Experts? It applies to economists among other disciplines. "You can lay down all the experts on any given topic in the world, lay them head to toe, and they still won't reach a conclusion."

When you look at the unbalanced trade we have because countries manipulate their own currency (and China is the worst at this), tariffs are the only non-combat way to massively level the playing field.

 

[RogerCooper]

This statement is made with blinders on. You are racing down the horse track and not seeing things peripheral to YOUR goal. It matters TO ME that we have people living here whose allegiance cannot be trusted. They think only of themselves and don't care that they are here illegally. How many illegal Islamic immigrants have perpetrated attacks? How many people have tried (such as in Michigan) to subvert USA courts by establishing Sharia courts? Which are illegal under U.S. law, due to the Supremacy clause.



Do you know Murphy's Law of Experts? It applies to economists among other disciplines. "You can lay down all the experts on any given topic in the world, lay them head to toe, and they still won't reach a conclusion."

When you look at the unbalanced trade we have because countries manipulate their own currency (and China is the worst at this), tariffs are the only non-combat way to massively level the playing field.

I am glad that you understand that deporting immigrants shrinks the economy and your issue is "allegiance". To answer your rhetorical questions.

1. How many illegal Islamic immigrants have perpetrated attacks? Very few if you mean terrorist attacks. If you are talking about ordinary crime, immigrants in general commit crime at lower levels than the native-borne.

2. How many people have tried (such as in Michigan) to subvert USA courts by establishing Sharia courts? Religious courts are nothing unusual in the US. Catholics and Jews also have religious courts. Private settlement of legal disputes is generally encouraged in the US.

By unbalanced trade, you mean the Chinese send us stuff and in a return they get promises of future payment. I don't see how that hurts Americans. Chinese trade policies hurt Chinese consumers not American.

 

[Jon]

We closed the Politics section for a reason. That reason hasn't gone away. Thread closed.