Trump Administration Predictions (22 Viewers)

[Isaac]

A revision is not an error. It is an updating of a past report based upon newly received data. This is routine in economics and finance. No evidence of an error has been presented.

In Greece & Argentina, heads of government statistical office were prosecuted for revealing budget deficits (neither was convicted). The head of the 1937 Soviet Census was executed for reporting too few people.

The common sense conclusion would be that Trump plans to fire anyone who issues unfavorable economic statistics rather than admit failure of his anti-free market policies. That is better than fate of Mikhail Kurman, who Stalin executed for reporting accurate numbers.

If no one believes the government economic statistics, who would us the US$ or invest in the US.

When it comes to revisions, it's a question of degree. How much and to what extent are they being revised and is that justified? The truth is neither you nor I know the answer to that question because we're not there working with the data

 

[RogerCooper]

I watched the numbers change downward for the entire four years of the Biden administration. I don't know where you get your news if you didn't watch see that constant "adjustment" in real time. As with most things, people see the initial report - "jobs are up again this month whoopie". Then a few days later on page 99 or after midnight, someone reports the change downward.

When it happens month after month after month, one might suspect either that the mis-reporting is deliberate or the sources are suspect and maybe, the reporter should find a more reliable source. Don't pick the one that said up until the very end that Hillary had it in the bag.

Financial analysts (and the Fed) pay close attention to the revisions. It might be better for the BLS not release preliminary figures but there is always clamor to get the information fast.

 

[AccessBlaster]

Financial analysts (and the Fed) pay close attention to the revisions. It might be better for the BLS not release preliminary figures but there is always clamor to get the information fast.

I bet they'll be more careful in the future.

 

[RogerCooper]

I bet they'll be more careful in the future.

Keep in mind, that there is no reason to doubt that a slowdown has started. That was the expected result of tariffs and the immigration crackdown. That is standard economics.

There is also no reason to doubt that the firing was because Trump did not like the bad economic results and wanted to blame the messenger.

 

[AccessBlaster]

A life time Trump hater said WHAT:

Last Friday in Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell finally – and grudgingly – admitted what the Trump team has been saying all along: tariffs don’t fuel inflation.

At most, tariffs create a one-time adjustment in prices, not the kind of runaway spiral that demands punishing rate hikes. And even that one-time bump may be negligible if, as we have long argued, foreign exporters – not American consumers – shoulder most or all of the burden.

The implication is clear: whether the impact is zero or merely a one-time step-up in prices, there is absolutely no justification for the Fed to hide behind "tariff uncertainty" as an excuse for overly restrictive interest-rate policy.

 

[RogerCooper]

A life time Trump hater said WHAT:

Are you aware the Jay Powell was appointed by Trump?

 

[AccessBlaster]

Are you aware the Jay Powell was appointed by Trump?

Yup.

 

[RogerCooper]

So by life-long Trump hater you mean someone who is anti-inflation.

 

[AccessBlaster]

So by life-long Trump hater you mean someone who is anti-inflation.

"This really is a historic epiphany from a Fed chair"

 

[moke123]

Your citing a Peter Navarro opinion piece?

What Fed must do now after Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole epiphany

Federal Reserve chairman acknowledges tariffs create only one-time price adjustments, not inflation spirals, as calls grow for aggressive 100 basis point rate cuts.

www.foxnews.com

 

[Pat Hartman]

For longer than you have been aware of immigrant labor issues

You just cannot tell the difference. Can you?

Are you aware the Jay Powell was appointed by Trump?

Apparently you've never made a mistake. Keep in mind that in Trump's first term, he did not have real support people. He had to rely on the Republicans to guide him. We know how that turned out. We also know that the Republicans in Congress are still actively working against him. The evidence is right in your face. Look how the Republican leaders of both houses colluded to pretend to keep Congress in session in order to prevent Trump from making recess appointments.

Powell has turned out to be as anti-Trump as he could be. He even tried his best to get the hyena elected.

 

[RogerCooper]

Here is what Powell actually said, not the Fox News Version.

The effects of tariffs on consumer prices are now clearly visible. We expect those effects to accumulate over coming months, with high uncertainty about timing and amounts. The question that matters for monetary policy is whether these price increases are likely to materially raise the risk of an ongoing inflation problem. A reasonable base case is that the effects will be relatively short lived—a one-time shift in the price level. Of course, "one-time" does not mean "all at once." It will continue to take time for tariff increases to work their way through supply chains and distribution networks. Moreover, tariff rates continue to evolve, potentially prolonging the adjustment process.

It is also possible, however, that the upward pressure on prices from tariffs could spur a more lasting inflation dynamic, and that is a risk to be assessed and managed. One possibility is that workers, who see their real incomes decline because of higher prices, demand and get higher wages from employers, setting off adverse wage–price dynamics. Given that the labor market is not particularly tight and faces increasing downside risks, that outcome does not seem likely.

Another possibility is that inflation expectations could move up, dragging actual inflation with them. Inflation has been above our target for more than four years and remains a prominent concern for households and businesses. Measures of longer-term inflation expectations, however, as reflected in market- and survey-based measures, appear to remain well anchored and consistent with our longer-run inflation objective of 2 percent.

 

[AccessBlaster]

Your citing a Peter Navarro opinion piece?

What Fed must do now after Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole epiphany

Federal Reserve chairman acknowledges tariffs create only one-time price adjustments, not inflation spirals, as calls grow for aggressive 100 basis point rate cuts.

www.foxnews.com

Peter Navarro's opinion is better than any MSNDNC talking head.

 

[moke123]

Peter Navarro's opinion is better than any MSNDNC talking head.

I'm sure he consults with Ron Varo, the true genius, on everything.

 

[RogerCooper]

Peter Navarro's opinion is better than any MSNDNC talking head.

To further cite Powell's actual remarks

The labor market is a case in point. The July employment report released earlier this month showed that payroll job growth slowed to an average pace of only 35,000 per month over the past three months, down from 168,000 per month during 2024 (figure 2).2 This slowdown is much larger than assessed just a month ago, as the earlier figures for May and June were revised down substantially.3 But it does not appear that the slowdown in job growth has opened up a large margin of slack in the labor market—an outcome we want to avoid. The unemployment rate, while edging up in July, stands at a historically low level of 4.2 percent and has been broadly stable over the past year. Other indicators of labor market conditions are also little changed or have softened only modestly, including quits, layoffs, the ratio of vacancies to unemployment, and nominal wage growth. Labor supply has softened in line with demand, sharply lowering the "breakeven" rate of job creation needed to hold the unemployment rate constant. Indeed, labor force growth has slowed considerably this year with the sharp falloff in immigration, and the labor force participation rate has edged down in recent months.

Overall, while the labor market appears to be in balance, it is a curious kind of balance that results from a marked slowing in both the supply of and demand for workers. This unusual situation suggests that downside risks to employment are rising. And if those risks materialize, they can do so quickly in the form of sharply higher layoffs and rising unemployment.

So Powell is open to interest rate cuts because he fears a sudden economic downturn. This is not a vindication of Trump's economic policies.

To read his remarks in full https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20250822a.htm

 

[AccessBlaster]

To further cite Powell's actual remarks



So Powell is open to interest rate cuts because he fears a sudden economic downturn. This is not a vindication of Trump's economic policies.

To read his remarks in full https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20250822a.htm

The only reason he doesn't lower the rate is because Trump wants it, period. He'll give as little credit as possible while trying not to look like a total douche, oops too late

 

[Pat Hartman]

Unless government employment is reported separately from non-government, you will be seeing a skewed picture since government employment is down a lot and that is by design.

 

[moke123]

Unless government employment is reported separately from non-government, you will be seeing a skewed picture since government employment is down a lot and that is by design.

Gov. jobs have always been included as part of the jobs report.

Employment Situation Summary - 2025 M07 Results

www.bls.gov