The risk today is no greater than when the IRA was in full fling here, it's just an excuse to jack up premiums and profits
Well, I don't know the risk. But the risk is the same in terms of risk of physical damage that is one thing but today it can mean much bigger payouts because of the "no one is responsible for themself" situation
But you are failing to grasp what happens to a premium.
Here is a basic outline, general insurance will be similar.
A certain risk requires $X to go to statutory funds. This couild be likened to a manufacturing cost. Let's for example assume that 70% of the retail premium goes to the statutory fund then the insurance company is left with 30% to whatever with. They can piss it up against the wall.
There is a second part to the equation and that is the re insurer. The insurer pays to the re insured what might be likened to a wholesale price. In other words the insurer pays a higher percentage of the retail premium to the re insurer than applies to what the pay to their own statutory fund. They can'y just simply decide on some percentage to be reinsured, regulations control the amount which of course is in keeping withthe size of their own statutory funds.
Now to the last part. Quite often base premium rates by dramatically increase but the insurer will reduce their margin in the interests of keeping the premium within the level that the market can bear.
If base rates ( actuarial or manufacturing cost) falls it can mean the insurance coompany can increase the margin they put on top of the actuarial rate because the final retail premium will be low.
In Australia "death by accident only" policies are very profitable to the insurer. the reason is the risk is very low and so the actuarial premium is extremely low so there is heaps of room for a big margin. in addition most people are like yo and automatically equate a high premium rate with high profit and a low premium rate with low profit. Thus, it is thes small premium policies that could be classed as a rip off.
In short, a rise in premiums and especially when it is large can me a reduced profit to the insurance company and sometimes a zero profit.