A Troubling Perspective Concerning the Upcoming 2024 Presidential Election (1 Viewer)

[Steve R.]

It all boils down to some recent polls. Below is one such poll. As we get closer to the election, these polls can change. But for now they are troubling since Biden/Trump are running neck to neck.

Donald Trump : Favorability Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

Two standout points for why these polls may not be considered valid:

• The Electoral College determines the winner. The winner is not determined by the popular vote.
• Never Trumpers do not seem to be considered as a factor yet.

Other significant factors:

• The Democrats are superior at messaging to sway public opinion. Republicans are deficient at swaying public opinion
• Democrats successfully "flanked"(cheated) the Republicans in 2020. They may well do it again in 2024.

My focus here is on the Never Trumpers as being an underestimated "wild card" (Black Swan event?) So far it appears that no Democrats are actually making any adversarial claims against Biden. The Democrats are sticking together. So they present a unified front with a coherent message. Contrast this with Republicans who are sniping at Trump instead of defending him against the political persecutions being fomented by the Biden Administration. It also does not help that Trump himself is shooting himself in the foot by attacking fellow Republicans (DeSantis). This implies disorganization and a lack of being able to project a coherent message to the public.

Trump may be in the winner upon completion of the Republican Primary. Unfortunately this may mean the virulent emergence of Never Trumpers becoming organized to undermine the Trump campaign. This would include supposed Republicans who would rather see a corrupt anti-American Biden administration win rather than a Trump victory. Which the polls have yet to analyze. Letting extreme personal hatred overrule logic is suicidal.

 

[Pat Hartman]

Looks like the next election will be a remake of "weekend at bernie's" Kamala doesn't have a shot so they just insert a stick up Biden's butt and someone makes his mouth move on occasion but most of the time, they will hide him away just like they did in 2020. It worked then and it will surely work again because the feckless, piece of dog poo Republicans have done nothing to ensure clean elections going forward. They would still prefer that the Democrats steal another election than that Trump win because, this time Trump will take no prisoners.

I am bothered that most of America isn't bothered by the old video from 2020 where Biden promised that Trump would never be President again no matter what, especially when you recognize that Biden has been controlling the persecution of Trump by using the DOJ and FBI to interfere with the election.

 

[Steve R.]

@Pat Hartman: Thanks for responding. I accidentally posted before I was done writing. Still madly typing away. Done now.

 

[Pat Hartman]

Thought that might have happened. Sure wish the Republicans would wise up though. I often wonder how my husband would have felt about Trump. I'm pretty sure he would have started out as a Never-Trumper. But, being a staunch Republican, he would have voted for Trump in the general and probably would have gotten over his gentlemanly distaste for Trump's uncouth behaviors once his actual policies became apparent. I however am not now a Republican, have never been a Republican, and based on the behavior of elected Republicans - especially their refusal to stand up for the constitution, I will never be a Republican.

So, Democrats, my vote is up for grabs. If Trump doesn't win the primary because the elected Republicans won't stand up for him and the Dems decide to abandon their Manchurian Candidate and his sidekick, the hyena and put up someone who is competent and sane and preferably not a criminal, how could the Dem be worse than a feckless Republican?

 

[Steve R.]

they will hide him away just like they did in 2020.

The Fox News pundits were lambasting Biden for relaxing on the beach. A grave miscalculation by the Fox pundits. This would actually appear to be the new basement. Biden casually enjoying the beach as if everything is under control because of his brilliant leadership while criminal Trump is mired in an ever increasing number of criminal allegations. Excellent optics for the Democrats.

They would still prefer that the Democrats steal another election than that Trump win ...

That is my fear; that the Republican leadership may not be planning for that. So it could emerge as a "Black Swan event" resulting in a Democratic win with a continued downhill slide into being a banana republic. Democrats are the threat to democracy.

 

[Pat Hartman]

Don't you just love it when the Democrats opine that a Trump win will be the end of "our" democracy. They don't know it but they are absolutely right because their democracy is not our democracy.

That reminds me of a silly word misunderstanding. My husband and I moved to Miami when our daughter was 3 1/2. We went ahead with the truck and the cars and my baby brother flew down with our daughter a week later. The first funny thing was as they were flying down Biscayne Bay in preparation to turn west to land and the pilot is giving the passengers the grand tour. When he mentioned that Miami was off to the right, my daughter yelled out - "stop the plane, I have to get off. My mommy is down there"

Then a couple of days later as we are having dinner, my brother is telling us he is going to the beach the next day. Christine asked "are you going to Miami Beach or your ami beach"