The Robot Revolution (1 Viewer)

[Jon]

I am so supportive of the robotic revolution. I just understand that it is going to replace every worker in the word. Everything you just said is proof of that. Thank you for winning my argument for me.

Elon Musk predicts that work will be optional in about 10 or 15 years time. Make of that what you will.

One of the big questions is whether or not we will see a large deflation of prices, as AI and robotics slash expenses, such as cost of production, admin, customer service and so on.

 

[AccessBlaster]

Elon Musk predicts that work will be optional in about 10 or 15 years time. Make of that what you will.

One of the big questions is whether or not we will see a large deflation of prices, as AI and robotics slash expenses, such as cost of production, adminm customer service and so on.

The R & D costs will be built-in for generations.

 

[MarkK]

I'm predicting a rebirth. the next Renaissance.

And this is somehow new? What is all of history except constant rebirth?

 

[MarkK]

Elon Musk predicts that work will be optional in about 10 or 15 years time.

Bill Gates predicts no one will need more than 640K.

 

[Thales750]

And this is somehow new? What is all of history except constant rebirth?

There are rebirths, and there are rebirths. Why do we have a name for the Renaissance?
Excluding the arrival of divine entities, This is the single biggest event in human history, and not by a little.
I read I Robot (and every other Isaac Asimov novel i could get my hands on growing up) in 1974. I knew then what most people are just now starting to see in the fog of their limited vision. The singularity is here, look around there's no denying it.
For the last 30 years so many of you have treated me like I'm an idiot. I don't mind though, it's finally here, the end of capitalist subjugation of the working class.

Now they may all die off, or be killed, but they will no longer be slaves. My robots will be doing the work

 

[Thales750]

Elon Musk predicts that work will be optional in about 10 or 15 years time. Make of that what you will.

One of the big questions is whether or not we will see a large deflation of prices, as AI and robotics slash expenses, such as cost of production, admin, customer service and so on.

And Asimov as well.

Of course it (deflation) will, but if the only people with all the wealth are paying subsistence pay, That is the only solution; other than the early demise and controlled rebirth of the entire human race.
Breed out, or genetically modify, the undesirables.

 

[The_Doc_Man]

For the last 30 years so many of you have treated me like I'm an idiot.

Well, despite you being a "voice that cries in the wilderness", at least we didn't treat you like Herod treated John the Baptist. That must be worth something.

And as far as the "Thriller laugh" - don't you DARE abuse that most wonderfully malevolent laugh of Vincent Price.

 

[Isaac]

The jacquard loom took the human out of weaving textiles, and did the job better, faster, cheaper. Same thing.

AI will have costs and payoffs just like fire. Harnessing fire made our lives way better, but fire is also a significant hazard. Same as AI.

But some things are a net loss, i.e. we really were better off without them. Social media, for instance

 

[Isaac]

Elon Musk predicts that work will be optional in about 10 or 15 years time. Make of that what you will.

One of the big questions is whether or not we will see a large deflation of prices, as AI and robotics slash expenses, such as cost of production, admin, customer service and so on.

I'm banking on that - I think most people will be out of a job, but then again, the prices of things will cost less. Going to the doctor might involve stepping into a robotics pod for $5, for instance

 

[MarkK]

But some things are a net loss, i.e. we really were better off without them. Social media, for instance

We really would be better off if there were unicorns and leprechauns.

I think it's hard to calculate the costs and payoffs of social media. One interesting and not well advertised side-effect of social media is that people forming relationships now, and having children, almost 90% of the time met their partner online. So whereas in the past you were 95% likely to meet and marry within your own immediate cultural milieu ("us"), you are now 95% likely to meet and marry into a group completely divergent from your immediate cultural milieu ("them").

And if you think of a society as a network of connections between "us" and "them," those connections now are far broader, for more inclusive, and far more tolerant as a direct result of social media.

Conversely, in some discrete contexts we express our frustrations more easily, but also more meaninglessly. I, for instance, yell curse words at people very commonly when I am driving. I am much more restrained pushing a shopping cart at the supermarket. The bubble of a car is safe place from which I can rage and yell at f*&ing idiots, but it has no staying power, no lasting effect.

I am selling this idea: That quietly, under the surface, social media is totally remapping and revolutionizing a deep connectedness between individuals, families, and social groups around the world. The tip of the iceberg, the little piece of it we can actually see, is a discrete context--a car-like bubble of safety--where people can express their frustration more easily, but also more meaninglessly.

So I advise against judging the impact of social media based solely on the rage it allows us to express.

 

[Isaac]

So I advise against judging the impact of social media based solely on the rage it allows us to express.

I think the worse effect is the self-comparison to others that has almost destroyed a generation of young people, especially girls - but you made some good points too

 

[AccessBlaster]

The robotics revolution was inevitable. Western civilization has been so successful that the need to reproduce has become less urgent. We are at a fork in the road, continue importing third-world values and poverty, or embrace robotics because someone, or something, has to do the grunt work. If Western civilization continues to stand still, it will be assimilated. In the end, it’s a numbers game.

 

[MarkK]

the self-comparison to others that has almost destroyed a generation of young people

My dad's generation was destroyed by war. He could hear the British bombers at night staging over Amsterdam. He could hear the occupying army, who for effect attached steel plates to their boots, marching the cobblestone streets.
• It is a measure of the relative peace, stability, and luxury of our times that we might see the current generation as having been destroyed.

 

[MarkK]

If Western civilization continues to stand still, it will be assimilated. In the end, it’s a numbers game.

No, if a group is cohesive, coherent, and pursues noble ideals, it cannot be assimilated. Consider the example of the history of the Jewish people. A group can only be assimilated as a result of its own internal moral decay.
If you fear assimilation, renew your commitment to the ideals of freedom, liberty, rule of law, kindness, patience, and good-will. These are lasting virtues, and if "we" sacrifice these--our only real strengths--in fear of "them", our assimilation will be mercifully just.

 

[AccessBlaster]

If you fear assimilation, renew your commitment to the ideals of freedom, liberty, rule of law, kindness, patience, and good-will. These are lasting virtues, and if "we" sacrifice these--our only real strengths--in fear of "them", our assimilation will be mercifully just.

I don't fear assimilation, I made a general statement about how Western civilizations grapple with automation.

 

[Thales750]

I don't fear assimilation, I made a general statement about how Western civilizations grapple with automation.

That is correct, no human ideal is goin to stop this train. Pandora is flying free now.
What we must do as a people is force the wealthiest to pay monies to the poor and then they (the few people that own the entire planet) can continue to play their capitalist games. They can still see who has the biggest pile they can still influence people and have power over others, they will just have to keep us alive for a a change instead of us keep them alive.
That's what this is all about. If paying super high taxes and using that money to pay folks sustenance pay, or to pay for jobs that are created for the benefit of the outcome of the job, not financial gains, then the people will not be allowed to die off.

Either then ,as it should be now, reproduction should be a privilege, not a right.

And ultimately it will be. Overpopulation, it the scourge of our planet in any event. So lets hope that the economy of the post singularity looks like Star Trek and not the Omega Man. Then we can bring our culture to the stars where population growth capabilities are endless.

I think we can safely predict that the world's people are going to do some serious rioting in the coming years. The largest ever as a matter of fact. Enough the make the revolutions against anarchies in Europe, and the socialists wars in Asia look like the preambles they were.

So, what does the end of work drudgery look like?

 

[The_Doc_Man]

Overpopulation, it the scourge of our planet in any event.

Oddly enough, you have found a subject on which we can agree, at least in principle.

Anthropogenic Climate Change might or might not be real. (Climate Change - without regard to cause - IS real.) But pollution in impoverished countries is due to having too many people who burn things in open fires for heat, who destroy trees because they don't have more efficient ways to obtain fuel and building materials.

Our scientific and industrial renaissance over the last few centuries enabled us to be more efficient, which helped exacerbate the problem of increasing population leading to increasing resource consumption leading to more waste by-products. Part of the medical issues we have now - including rising health care costs - stems from supply vs. demand issues. Too many people need health care but the illegal immigrant influx only increases the local demand without increasing the supply side of that situation any better.

When researching my family history through that popular ancestry site, I found many cases, one might even say innumerable cases, where at least two or three family members died before reaching adulthood. Many of my pre-Cilvil War families had over a dozen children but a lot fewer who lived to adulthood. At least five isolated cases stood out where one of my "nth" cousins died at an age less than one year old. That frequency of early death didn't match up to ongoing war but rather correlated to people in rural areas away from any place with a higher proportion of medical care availability.

In a way it is part of survival of the fittest, but nature maintained balance over the long term by making the weakest members due of disease, age, or predation such that species populations would stay in balance over several generations. If a group of predators died out, their prey had a sudden population growth, which fed the dwindling predator population, causing THAT to increase, which in turn led to the NEXT generation of prey being brought back into balance. Drought, flood, and famine did their share of population control. But now... the extreme weather being felt around the USA would normally have taken care of population extremes - but not now. One might say that thanks to the Renaissance, we have sown the seeds of our own over-population doom.

Right now, mainland China is actually suffering a population decrease for reasons far too complex to examine here. (Besides, I've got stuff to do this morning to help my wife.) India is now the most populous nation on Earth. China's anti-family policies from the last two generations finally took their toll... a toll that might lead to serious diminution of China's economic and industrial strength as they find they don't have enough workers to pay taxes to support their rapidly retiring older generation.

 

[KitaYama]

China's anti-family policies from the last two generations finally took their toll... a toll that might lead to serious diminution of China's economic and industrial strength as they find they don't have enough workers to pay taxes to support their rapidly retiring older generation.

China’s economy does not rely on personal taxes the way most Western countries do.
China’s government revenue depends on:
1-Corporate taxes. Companies that are owned and controlled by the government (SOEs) pay profits and taxes. Large private companies contribute significant tax revenue too. (Temu, Alibaba,....)
2-Value-Added Tax (VAT). This is one of China’s largest revenue sources Paid indirectly by consumers, but collected from businesses, not individuals
3-Land sales. The state owns all land, people buy the the right to use the land for a specific period of time. This has been a massive source of funding.
This is one reason the real-estate slowdown hurts local finances badly
4-Import/export duties. That's where US is trying to put China under pressure with tarif.

Western countries echonomy is tied to the taxes from public, but
China’s government is more financially tied to Businesses, State-owned enterprises, Land and investment activities.

I don't go into details, because it gets a little politic. You may want to look into it.

 

[AccessBlaster]

What we must do as a people is force the wealthiest to pay monies to the poor and then they (the few people that own the entire planet) can continue to play their capitalist games.

Let me play devil’s advocate for a minute. Let’s say you’re a smart guy maybe an engineer not rich, but making a good living. You invent a new widget and instantly become a millionaire, and you happen to live in the great state of Texas. You’ve paid all the taxes that federal and state governments require. For the sake of argument, let’s say the government takes one-third of your new windfall in taxes.

That leaves you with about $667,000. How much of that remaining money should you be forced to give to the poor? Half? Three-quarters? All of it?

It ultimately comes down to arbitrary definitions of who is rich and who is poor. There’s a family in the Congo right now who might think you are the Bill Gates of Texas and therefore believe you owe them financial assistance.

 

[The_Doc_Man]

What we must do as a people is force the wealthiest to pay monies to the poor

Thereby justifying the actions of street thugs who rob the slightly-richer-than-themselves and keep the money since they think of themselves as poor. Thanks but no thanks.