Coronavirus - are we all doomed?

[Isaac]

Tera, if you believe that seeking for revenge is not silly and is a good idea in the midst of the real problems that need to be solved right now, I can't change your mind and won't be argumentative on the point. These forums are not a good place for continued political argument. I've spoken my piece, and I respect your opinion.

 

[deletedT]

I respect your opinion.

Me too.

 

[deletedT]

Today there's a hit in social networks under this title:
west Virginia is a war zone during their coronavirus parties.

I couldn't find any youtube video.
But this page has a part of the clip:
link removed to possibly infecting thread

Can anybody explain what's going on?

 

[AccessBlaster]

Colorado amends coronavirus death count - says fewer have died of COVID-19 than previously thought.

Colorado has made a stunning and significant change to the way it counts COVID-19 deaths that reduced the statewide figure from more than 1,000 to 878, according to a report.

While its only 122 miss reports so far, if you compound these numbers out it could significant world wide.

Everyone needs to be skeptical of computer modeling they can be politically driven.

 

[Jon]

Or those are already the compounded figures for Colorado, thus making the initial estimates highly accurate, since a tiny percentage difference in the initial prediction will compound out to a near 10% difference in the end. Devils advocate!

I agree regarding the politically driven version of the model people decide to use. Mentioned this in a recent post.

 

[AccessBlaster]

Or those are already the compounded figures for Colorado, thus making the initial estimates highly accurate, since a tiny percentage difference in the initial prediction will compound out to a near 10% difference in the end.

Absolutely.

 

[Jon]

I was kinda saying that calling a 10% difference on highly volatile estimates is not really stunning at all. But on further reflection, we are indeed on the same page because computer modelling is using these variables and thus is prone is high error (initially!).

But because its my Devils Advocate day, I want to disagree! So, you have two choices: a computer model or no model. One gives predictive ability that will change over time as you update the variables with more data, while the other doesn't. A torpedo goes off target, but keeps redirecting like the computer models as the data comes in. No model means you end up with no foresight and higher error bars.

But what do I know, I am a mere discussion forum owner who's birthday it is today and is depressed because he is getting older!

 

[The_Doc_Man]

@Tera - I'm drawing a blank on anything specific to West Virginia and parties. The stuff I can find suggests they are relatively low on the scale of infections and deaths. I've done more than one search approaching from different angles. No relevant hits so far. I should note that there is apparently a W.Va. sports group calling itself "Warzone" which seems to be related to prizefighting or mixed martial arts competitions.

The link you posted is in a language I don't read and it was interacting with my brower so I shut it off. My Kaspersky hadn't alerted yet so at least it either was poorly coded or it had not gotten far enough to do damage.

 

[The_Doc_Man]

Congrats on your birthday, Jon! Many happy returns, as we say. So, if this is anything like my stepdaughter's birthday, is it something like the 21st anniversary of your 29th birthday?

 

[Jon]

Thanks Doc. Yes, and a little bit more. Time flies and then we are dead. Unless my mind gets uploaded into the cloud, and then I think I am alive but I am not altogether sure.

 

[deletedT]

@Tera - I'm drawing a blank on anything specific to West Virginia and parties. The stuff I can find suggests they are relatively low on the scale of infections and deaths. I've done more than one search approaching from different angles. No relevant hits so far. I should note that there is apparently a W.Va. sports group calling itself "Warzone" which seems to be related to prizefighting or mixed martial arts competitions.

The link you posted is in a language I don't read and it was interacting with my brower so I shut it off. My Kaspersky hadn't alerted yet so at least it either was poorly coded or it had not gotten far enough to do damage.

Sorry Doc for the link. I deleted it. I’ll try to add a TikTok link.

 

[AccessBlaster]

But what do I know, I am a mere discussion forum owner who's birthday it is today and is depressed because he is getting older!

Happy Birthday Jon

 

[AccessBlaster]

But because its my Devils Advocate day, I want to disagree! So, you have two choices: a computer model or no model.

How bout neither? I use my gut feeling, and right now my ganglia is sounding the alarm.

 

[Ravi Kumar]

wish you a very happy birthday , Jon.

 

[AccessBlaster]

This is why the Dems need the country to stay closed, it's really their only hope. I am not sure a Biden-Abrams ticket will play well with the basket of deplorable's.

 

[Isaac]

I never said I disputed that it came from China. I said that I think calling the disease that, and focusing on the "Chinese" label right now, is very distracting and damaging to the work that needs to be focused on right now. It may 'feel good' politically, but isn't the wisest choice right now.

 

[Deleted member 147267]

We agree to disagree. The "work" that needs to go on will go on regardless of what you call it. Much of the time there's not much point in figuring out who's to blame. In this case, I think not placing the blame where it lies only invites more of the same - from anywhere; i.e. history is doomed to repeat itself. Here is a former Chinese citizen who might shed some light on the Chinese Communist government actions in several spheres, including the suppression of Covid 19 information to the rest of the world.

 

[Isaac]

If sticking your head in the sand makes you some how feel safer that is suprising to me

MajP, I am disappointed that you refer to my post this way, despite me trying to explain myself several times that that is not what I am doing.

 

[Steve R.]

... focusing on the "Chinese" label right now, is very distracting and damaging to the work that needs to be focused on right now. It may 'feel good' politically, but isn't the wisest choice right now.

It's worse than distracting. The US is and has been opening itself up for "retaliation".

The US is unfortunately a very litigious society were opportunistic lawyers are foaming at the mouth to sue somebody. That aggressive suing attitude is unfortunately creeping into us foreign policy. Besides finding a handle as a basis to sue China on COVID-19, it also spills over into other areas such as so-called intellectual property. So if the US goes after China by pursuing a blame game, China will eventually blame the US given the opportunity. What happens when a pandemic originates in the US or China invents something that was never invented in the US?

The US is unfortunately very arrogant with the assumption that the US can do no wrong. China may be nipping at our heals, but they also have a population that is nearly 4X the US population. They can also develop and invent stuff. Remember the saying: "What goes around comes around". The US must be careful concerning the implementation of policies that can be whimsically turned against us.

 

[Isaac]

I give up in explaining what I was trying to say, too many times. It's all good, MajP.