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Steve R.

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Sanctions take time to work. When the economy declines and his oligarchs and civilians turn against him, the job will be done.
Do we have "time"? Will Russian civilians, oligarchs, and even the military (successfully) oust Putin before Ukraine is trampled into oblivion?
 
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conception_native_0123

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Do we have "time". Will Russian civilians, oligarchs, and even the military (successfully) oust Putin before Ukraine is trampled into oblivion?
That might be a moot point because the Ukraine has agreed to talks with Russia
 

The_Doc_Man

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so WHAT IF Putin launches the nukes? are we all finished, really?

In theory, no. Any of us who lived near military installations would be toast. Like north-west Ft. Worth (a joint Air Force/Navy base), or perhaps Belle Chasse south of New Orleans (a Navy Air base with training for ALL service branches except USCG), and just about anyone near any Air Force base like Andrews outside of Washington DC. Not to mention network centers would be fried by the massive electromagnetic pulse. All the major cities that have communications hubs would take at least one air burst to assure maximum dispersion of the EMP. The shock wave would level buildings or gut them. Look at old newsreel footage of Nagasaki, which was also an air burst.

However, even considering that most of us would not be at ground zero, a LOT of us would still be finished but it would take longer. Anyone who depends on some life-saving drug will suddenly find it in incredibly short supply or totally unobtainable, because our distribution system will be compromised for years. Roads will be blocked by deep craters. Major rail bridges will be potential targets, so getting across the Mississippi River south of, say, Minnesota, will be an amphibious operation. Anyone whose immune system is touchy will suddenly be overcome by opportunistic diseases due to radiation suppressing those immune systems. Cancer rates will rise. Heavy-metal poisoning will attack our livers. (And by "heavy metal" I do NOT mean Steppenwolf, Kiss, or GWAR music.) Power distribution will be non-existent to spotty at best, so anyone dependent on respirators is also not going to make it.

About the only thing relatively good that could possibly come out of a nuclear war (and it would be marginal at best) would be a nuclear winter that would cleanse the atmosphere with the cold-weather extremes causing wet storms that would sweep radioactives out of the atmosphere. We wouldn't have to worry about global warming for a while. But the down-side of THAT would be that river estuaries would be forever poisoned and various fish spawning grounds would be compromised, thus killing off seafood - which sustains LOTS of countries. Coastal China, Coastal Viet Nam, Japan, and many of the tropical island nations would find rations quite short. And the food that they COULD find by fishing might glow back at them at night.

Stay with me here even though my suggestion will perhaps make you pause to consider my sanity after talking about such a horrific subject: If you want to see what it would look like after the missiles fell, play the game Fallout 3, which is a great game in its own right, but its depiction of the aftermath of "the big war" is chilling. The ambience of a ruined city mostly depopulated by nuclear war, with desperate people scavenging for one more day of food, one little place of shelter, one more day of survival... it is an incredibly grim image. I love the game and HATE the images. The mutants and ghouls in the game are fanciful, but gaunt, sick, desperate people would be real enough.
 

KitaYama

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In theory, no.
I know you're a military man and a man of knowledge, but you may have forgotten what happened to us in Hiroshima & Nagasaki.
And it was almost 75 years ago. You can multiply what happened there by a million times, because the smallest nuclear weapon now is several hundred times more powerful and destructive.

"They have increased exponentially since 1945," Shannon Kile, program director on the Nuclear Disarmament, Arms Control, and Non-proliferation program of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), said in an online interview with Anadolu Agency. "In the current US nuclear arsenal, for example, the W88 warheads deployed on Trident II submarine-launched missiles have an estimated yield of 475 kilotons, compared to the estimated 12-13 kiloton yield of the 'Little Boy' bomb dropped on Hiroshima."

From :

And it's only a little one from a submarine. Now imagine what real ones are. :(

If there's a nuclear war, I think it will be the end of man kind. I don't think it really does matter you're near a military base or not.
 
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Jon

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Do we have "time". Will Russian civilians, oligarchs, and even the military (successfully) oust Putin before Ukraine is trampled into oblivion?
Nothing can stop vast damage of Ukraine. It is all too late for that. But the resistance from Ukrainians and the support of the West can assist in their defence.

The sanctions will have immediate and medium/long-term effects. Let me hypothesise...

Immediate
  • Interest rates have already doubled overnight in Russia to 20%. Mortgage payments will be crippling, loans for business and domestic use damaging. Edit: Most mortages in Russia are fixed rate until the end of term, so this will effectively prevent people from taking out new mortgages.
  • The rouble has fallen 30% overnight. Foreign purchases will be 30% more expensive.
  • Run on the banks. Apparently, one subsidiary of a Russian bank is about to go bankrupt.
  • Isolation from sporting and cultural events.
  • Travel problems because of flight bans.
  • Inability of businesses to do trade with the West, resulting in immediate problems.
  • Stock market has been frozen today by the Russian authorities, who expect its collapse. But can they indefinitely suspend a stock market? I think not.
  • The complete boycott of Russian products from the West. For example, bars in the US are pouring Russian vodka down the drain! Businesses are turning away from deals with Russian companies.
Medium/Long-term
  • Economic decline of Russia as a super-power.
  • Reduced ability to keep their military up-to-date.
  • Decline in standard of living of Russia citizens, leading to unrest over Putin's policies.
  • Technology bans degrading all aspects of Russian life, including Apple phones, replacement car parts, essential military components, everything!
  • Isolation from the West with cultural and sporting damage.
  • Lack of influence on the World stage, as they are ousted from various institutions.
  • Oligarchs turning on Putler.
Putler will have a plate full of problems. The worse it gets, the more dangerous he gets as he goes nuclear to cover up for his fatal strategic mistake.
 
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The_Doc_Man

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I know you're a military man and a man of knowledge, but you may have forgotten what happened to us in Hiroshima & Nagasaki.
And it was almost 75 years ago. You can multiply what happened there by a million times, because the smallest nuclear weapon now is several hundred times more powerful and destructive.



From :

And it's only a little one from a submarine. Now imagine what real ones are. :(

If there's a nuclear war, I think it will be the end of man kind. I don't think it really does matter you're near a military base or not.

End of Mankind? Don't know for sure, but can't rule out the possibility. On the other hand, there are populated sections of the USA mountain time zone and western parts of the central time zone that are not necessarily near military or logistics targets. Parts of Canada also would be of limited strategic importance. The South American continent does not have uniform target distribution either. Parts of Africa might escape targeting, too. On the other hand, our heaviest population centers in the area between Washington DC and New York City have a lot of either military or civilian targets that would pretty much be vaporized.

Still, if even a few of us survive, we can spring back - but certainly not quickly. It would take more than a couple of generations. Mankind is prolific and might surprise you, plus there are areas where we might get lucky. So while I cannot give you perfect evidence, I would say that humanity would have a chance of surviving. But we would lose double-digit percentages of population and I doubt the percentage would be less than 50% in the first strikes - because you KNOW we would retaliate.
 

Jon

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I personally don't think Putin would target just military targets. If he starts a nuclear war, he knows it is the end. So, expect nuclear explosions in the centre of New York, Washington, Chicago etc. Wipe out America, London, Birmingham, Paris, Milan, Madrid. Oh how Putler can make his mark on the world.
 

Cronk

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What's the chance of someone putting a bullet in his head before he gets too extreme.
 
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Jon

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We all know that recently Putin threatened nuclear war, which would in return wipe out Russia. Well, isn't suicide classed as a mental illness?
 

Umpire

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I have my doubts that IF Putin orders a nuclear strike, the personnel operating the launchers would actually carry it out. At least not 100%.
It appears that his actions are VERY unpopular with the average Russian. And it is going to get worse as more information is leaked to the people. Such as the State run news sites being hacked to show the true death totals like they were earlier today.

The fact that the Swiss have NOT remained neutral is of huge significance.
 

Jon

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Umpire

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Not according to the types of comments in the Russian papers. Check them out yourself:

As far as I am aware, ALL Russian papers are controlled by the state. That needs to be factored in to anything they say.
 

Jon

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These are comments from the public on the papers articles. They include anti-Russian comments from users outside of Russia. I've left comments on there myself.

Paper publishes articles. Readers leave comments.

Edit: You are right. The State controls the papers so their articles follow the governments line.
 

oleronesoftwares

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What's the chance of someone putting a bullet in his head before he gets too extreme.
That might be the end of it, but i doubt if it will happen soon, he is a tyrant, anyone who dares him faces the consequence.
 

Eugene-LS

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his desire for a return to old borders, the USSR?
Have you lived in Ukraine? - Have you been to Russia?
Do you know the culture and history of the Slavic peoples?
So how can you discuss what's going on there?
...
I have no words!
I think you're just needlessly escalating the situation.

Sincerely yours:
Evgeny Serebryakov
Russian Federation
 

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