The Covid cure has arrived! (1 Viewer)

[Jon]

Isreal has reached herd immunity yet their numbers still climb

By definition, they have therefore not reached herd immunity:

The idea of herd immunity is that there is a certain proportion of people who need to be protected from a virus, either by vaccination or by having been infected, for the virus to stop spreading and die out.

Source: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/covid-19/questions-answers/questions-and-answers-vaccines

 

[Jon]

I envisage the following scenario in 20 years time:

Monday: Flu jab
Tuesday: Covid jab
Wednesday: Bird Flu jab
Thursday: Ebola variant X jab
Friday: Day off. Yay!

 

[AccessBlaster]

Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely. As a result, the whole community becomes protected — not just those who are immune

The reports are between 78-89 percent of their population are fully vaxxed

 

[Jon]

I know Israel had a very fast rollout of the vaccine.

The link I gave said herd immunity is difficult to achieve due to the very high number of people needing immunity, waning vaccine effectiveness (get that booster!), vaccine hesitancy, new variants etc. It is by no means an easy task.

The Spanish Flu died out after two years. Let us hope Omicron proves to be mild and has a similar impact. The stock markets have dived though.

 

[AccessBlaster]

Op-Ed: Why Did Fauci Move the Herd Immunity Goal Posts?​

December 29, 2020
Late last week, Fauci told the New York Times that new science had changed his thinking on the herd immunity threshold -- but he also admitted that his statements were influenced in part by "his gut feeling that the country is finally ready to hear what he really thinks."

Specifically, the fraction of people who would need immunity to SARS-CoV-2 (either through vaccination or recovery from prior infection) to extinguish the spread of the virus was initially estimated to be 60% to 70%. In recent weeks, Fauci had raised the percentage: from 70% to 75%, and then to 75%, 80%, and 85%.

Why would we trust the person who helped create the problem to somehow have the solution.

 

[conception_native_0123]

Monday: Flu jab
Tuesday: Covid jab
Wednesday: Bird Flu jab
Thursday: Ebola variant X jab
Friday: Day off. Yay!

is that the 4 day workweek everyone is now buzzing about again?

 

[Isaac]

Even with reckless driving, the analogy is not as stretched as you would like to believe, I think.
Many accidents involve several vehicles, where only one made the wrong decision. In fact, one accident on my local freeway involves THOUSANDS of people whose daily lives are affected that day, causing a lot of disturbance to schedule, families, committments, and who knows how many other domino effects that suddenly result from 2000 people being 30 minutes late to everything that evening. (Remember, in this specific contextual analogy, that COVID causes little more than inconvenience to the vast majority who encounter it).
The more one scrutinizes this analogy, the more strong & relevant it gets..

Secondly, is this a little like voting? You already know everyone will never get vaccinated, and have admitted just above that even very high %'s of vaccination (Israel) are still not achieving the 'stop the spread'.

Therefore, it can be argued that any single person's decision is meaningless, because it makes little to no difference to the outcome.

Entrenchment in that voting argument is going to follow you everywhere, Jon.
I'm just playin'

 

[Steve R.]

Let me toss in a slight twist concerning the argument that if you are not vaccinated, that you should not be treated at a hospital.

I fully understand that the purported reason for this is to prevent an unvaccinated person from infecting others. Yet, Biden is keeping the US Southern border wide open and not imposing any vaccine mandate on the illegal immigrants. Unvaccinated illegal immigrants can spread the Coviedtoo. The illegal immigrants will be needing medical care (as well as welfare), so are we to deny them medical care?

Moreover, if Biden was really concerned about the unvacinated being a health hazard, why has he not shut-down the border. That would eliminate one disease vector. Biden also imposed travel restriction from various countries, but not for those entering this country through the southern border. A double standard. Why?

Since the Biden administration is aggressively promoting the illegal immigrant loophole to exist, the logical conclusion is that that Biden adminstration is blowing smoke concerning the infectious spread of Covid by the unvaccinated. Smoke and mirrors.

 

[Steve R.]

Unfortunately, (at the time) Biden was making his nasty accusation, we were in an election period. Biden, with the help of the complicit media was able to "win" an election (in part) with this disgraceful narrative. Today, the election is over thereby minimizing this as headline news. Furthermore, the complicit media has now made a "180" and advocates Biden's actions as "good". It's unfortunate that the Biden administration was successful in lying to the gullible to (fraudulently) "win" and election.

PS: As an additional thought, if Covid is as severe as the Biden administration claims; why isn't the southern border closed?
Why are illegal immigrants exempt from these mandates? Seems that Covid really isn't the concern. The concern of the Biden administration is to take away civil liberties and impose an autocratic regime.

how

 

[Isaac]

Let me toss in a slight twist concerning the argument that if you are not vaccinated, that you should not be treated at a hospital.

I fully understand that the purported reason for this is to prevent an unvaccinated person from infecting others. Yet, Biden is keeping the US Southern border wide open and not imposing any vaccine mandate on the illegal immigrants. Unvaccinated illegal immigrants can spread the Coviedtoo. The illegal immigrants will be needing medical care (as well as welfare), so are we to deny them medical care?

Moreover, if Biden was really concerned about the unvacinated being a health hazard, why has he not shut-down the border. That would eliminate one disease vector. Biden also imposed travel restriction from various countries, but not for those entering this country through the southern border. A double standard. Why?

Since the Biden administration is aggressively promoting the illegal immigrant loophole to exist, the logical conclusion is that that Biden adminstration is blowing smoke concerning the infectious spread of Covid by the unvaccinated. Smoke and mirrors.

I agree, and the idiocy of any doctor who wails on and on about requiring vaccinations, but doesn't care that a quarter-million people came over the border unvaccinated in one month alone, really ought to inform one's level of trust in what they are saying about anything

 

[NauticalGent]

 

[The_Doc_Man]

Part of the problem with "herd immunity" is that the percentages will depend on information that isn't widely available - if at all. It is all about probability of transmission. IF you can figure out a reasonable coefficient of infection following the contact between an infected person A and another person B, you will get a number from 0% to 100% as the odds of that infection spreading. In fact, you would have to take a more complex sum of probabilities that a person in a given situation will or won't spread the disease. This would include that person B in the above (1) could already have had the disease and thus has antibodies - but does not know it, (2) has been vaccinated, (3) is immuno-compromised, (4) is at a super spreader type of event, (5) one or both were wearing masks that have some non-zero percentage effectiveness... and so on. One of those will also be "person is self-isolated". Take the population-weighted average over all situations. The final number will be greater than 50% or less than 50%. If the probability of transmission is greater, you have not reached herd immunity and the disease will rampage. If less, you have reached herd immunity and the disease will die out due to lack of eligible carriers and victims.

Of the innumerable situations, which ones can you influence to help bring the total odds down below 50%?
You can get vaccinated - decreases (but doesn't eliminate) odds of spreading.
You can isolate yourself - depends on HOW isolated you are, but decreases odds by narrowing the opportunities.
You can wear a mask - depends on effectiveness of the mask but decreases spread by a few percentage points.
You can avoid super-spreader events (i.e. large public gatherings) - not as effective as total isolation but does decrease spread by a few points.

#1 in that list depends on testing to determine magnitude. #3 depends on medical records. The others depend your actions and choices.

It's all about probability. But here's the essential consideration. These are basically all about actuarial computations. I'm not making them up because this is the kind of thing actuaries do - including the roll-ups leading to the overall numbers. In fact, I have probably left out a lot of situations that have significant populations. I am NOT going to defend Fauci because of what he said, but I should point out that as you get more items to add into this actuarial nightmare, it is possible for the odds to shift.

If you cannot see that your individual choice here has an effect on the population reaching herd immunity, then you cannot see the forest for the trees. There was an old phrase that is incredibly relevant here: No man is an island. Unless you are Tom Hanks in the movie "Castaway" your actions WILL affect others.

Now, the Libertarian in me returns to the fold. Make your choices. They are yours to make. I defend your right to MAKE those choices. But don't give me an excuse about how your choice doesn't affect anyone else. Actuarial science says otherwise. It doesn't matter that I don't know the coefficients for each case. What I've shown is that the mathematical formula for herd immunity supports "No man is an island."

 

[AccessBlaster]

If that's the case why did they dangle "herd immunity" and "natural immunity" like a carrot? Science should say herd immunity is a concept in medicine, not a reality. They used it to get jabs in arms knowing it was impossible to obtain, that's called lying.

 

[Steve R.]

To reiterate the themes of many of the posts on this thread, Covid has gone beyond "science". Scientific theories should always be challenged to verify if they hold-up or not. The problem is that Covid has been politicized thereby making "science" irrelevant. The Biden administration claims that Covid is a serious health concern and that they are following the "science" to eradicated it. This assertion by the Biden administration is patently false since they are letting a massive number of unvacinated illegal immigrants into the US and sending them to numerous places in the US. Essentially creating a super-spreader event. That belays any assertions that Covid is actually as serious as the government claims.

Touching on the "science" theme again. Can one really trust the governments data/statistics concerning the transmissible of the Covid, herd immunity, etc. since they are propagandizing that Covid is serious?

In a sense, we may be arguing (corrupt) "science" that is based on false assumptions and data that has been manipulated to support a propaganda narrative.

@AccessBlaster: Our posts crossed. By being "first", you win!

 

[AccessBlaster]

Japan crushes Big Pharma with a small yet effective move​

Japan has said a loud and clear no to big pharma companies’ vaccination campaigns, with a small yet remarkable move. Japan is going to dump repeated vaccination doses for a better and more durable cure- Ivermectin. It is an orally administered, anti-parasitic drug, which has emerged as a viable treatment option for COVID-19 infections.

Full article here.

 

[NauticalGent]

They used it to get jabs in arms knowing it was impossible to obtain, that's called lying.

This!

 

[Isaac]

OMG ... all of these leftwing media crazies have convinced everyone ivermectin is a nonsense idea, and Japan is using it successfully widespread?

This is amazing, if true, how is this not frontpage news

 

[AccessBlaster]

OMG ... all of these leftwing media crazies have convinced everyone ivermectin is a nonsense idea, and Japan is using it successfully widespread?

This is amazing, if true, how is this not frontpage news

“If you were wondering why Ivermectin was suppressed, it is because the agreement that countries had with Pfizer does not allow them to escape their contract, which states that even if a drug will be found to treat COVID-19, the contract cannot be voided”.

 

[moke123]

OMG ... all of these leftwing media crazies have convinced everyone ivermectin is a nonsense idea, and Japan is using it successfully widespread?

This is amazing, if true, how is this not frontpage news

Japan has not substituted ivermectin for COVID-19 vaccines

False. Japan has not stopped the use of coronavirus vaccines, nor has it substituted them with the parasite drug ivermectin, according to a list of COVID-19 approved medical products from Japan’s Ministry of Health.

apnews.com

 

[The_Doc_Man]

If that's the case why did they dangle "herd immunity" and "natural immunity" like a carrot? Science should say herd immunity is a concept in medicine, not a reality. They used it to get jabs in arms knowing it was impossible to obtain, that's called lying.

Herd immunity IS science. The down side of it is the need for filling in the blanks for infection rates for all the possible different contact situations. Actuaries do this kind of analysis all the time. They have the math and know the methods.

The question is whether someone associated with Dr. Fauci and CDC and other health units has actually tried to do the math regarding herd immunity. But it should be noted that complexity doesn't stop actuaries. Just slows them down a bit. There is where someone should be looking to get some real numbers.